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Switzer Daily 15 May 2021 Next week I do an economic and market outlook speech for an advisory group with whom I did my last live speech for 2020 because of something that will be unforgettable — the Coronavirus!  Last year their event was held in March before we went into full lockdown. It was done with social distancing rules and we were guessing how bad this was going to be for the economy and the stock market. Always ahead of the curve, the market was selling off and I was expected to come up with my best guess of the futures of the economy and the stock market. So I started off by exp...

MacroBusiness Access Subscriber Only Content Or, at least, take the froth off the top. Chris Joye with the note: RBA TFF expiry in June lift fixed-rate mortgage rates. Low fixed rates were 40% of all new borrowing. Banks will need to refinance $150-350bn of RBA funding at higher market rates. Housing to remain strong for years. Quite right, though I suspect the impact might be a little more than CJ reckons on. 100bps on top of your mortgage is not much unless you’ve borrowed to the hilt at 200bps. Then it’s a 50% hike to your repayments and one hell of an income shock.

MacroBusiness Access Subscriber Only Content Taiwan generated some serious angst over the weekend. Chris Joye is thumping the drums of war: The chance of a forced Chinese forced annexation of Taiwan is now above 50%. The probability of war is higher in the next five years than after because the CCP has closed the military gap. Australia will be bombed in any war. Peter Hartcher added some useful material: Kevin Rudd says the Morrison Government is aiming for a khaki election. This is pointlessly insulting China with risk of blowback. Rudd reasons that China will not invade Taiwan for a decade...

MacroBusiness Access Subscriber Only Content at 12:05 am on February 26, 2021 | 22 comments Australia’s property boom has gone from strength to strength, with CoreLogic’s 5-city daily index surging another 0.70% in the week ended 25 February, which follows the prior week’s 0.55% rise. As shown in the next chart, the past two week’s increase in values were the strongest in years, easily surpassing the late 2019 boom: There are 991 words left in this subscriber-only article. Sydney and Melbourne drove this week’s rise in values, with both capitals surging by 0.83%. Brisbane values als...

MacroBusiness Access Subscriber Only Content at 10:00 am on December 11, 2020 | 9 comments Sir Fomo McSpruikerson is an expatriate billionaire and proud proprietor of The Strayan, a vanity media project designed to boost his assets.  ABC announces switch to Mandarin as part of 2021 programming overhaul The ABC has announced that all of its content will be broadcast in Mandarin as part of a shake up of programming in 2021. All content on each of the ABC’s networks will be broadcast in Mandarin with English subtitles, in a move heralded by ABC Chairwoman Ita Buttrose as a momentous occasion ...