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Why would that happen? >> i think there's a few things. we're likely to see higher turnout than 2012 part of population growth. this is 2012 and didn't have high turnout compared to 2008. we added more people since then. another reason why is hillary clinton is leading by so much, the democrats feel more confident with turnout once you're ahead by that much. >> so, you think if you're up more than people vote because i would think intuitively if you're up, maybe you stay home. >> turnout makes a couple percentage point difference. the democrats also have a stronger field program which is the t...

Latest updates on this topic from reliable sources.

Latest updates on this topic from reliable sources.

If gingrich finishes like a strong second to surprise of ron paul, it may work like four years ago huckabee won iowa. he had his moment. so it's hard to know what effect it would be. it would be a great relief to mitt romney if ron paul knocked gingrich off in iowa. romney's standing in iowa is sinking and if he loses badly there, that would take some of the luster from him and make it harder. >> greta: and virtually every candidate, governor romney hasn't had a surge. what does that mean? >> it means, he has some weakness. he has had this core strength 20-25%. now, the numbers are under that....