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States when you compare what the numbers say in early votes versus a model or polling would predict about the composition of the electorate. spell it out for us. >> absolutely. we're seeing far greater early voting numbers than most of the mainstream models are predicting latinos, in particular, in florida and also in nevada are overperforming there's also the data polling from dan smith at the university of florida put out that 30% of the latinos were either new registrants or no voting history. these are people voting at high rates, very high rates compared to what we saw in 2012 and they ar...

>> and that candidate donald trump is a polling powerhouse. new numbers from cbs news show him leading with 27 percent of the republican voters and dr. ben carson at 21. and everybody else is single digits. add those two up. 42 percent. and carly fiorina fifth place and in a two- way tie with jeb bush. we have political reporterer from the daily beast. two guys never held political office before, betsy. some people thought that the fascination with outsider ares would wane. >> the case in fact is opposite. further from washington you are and less experience you have better you will do in the e...

Regardless of the snippet that you read. if you ask bill bradley who got the de"des moines register" endorsement in 2000, it didn't matter to him. and howard dean, who got a lot of endorsements in 2004, it didn't matter to him. the fundamentals of the election are static. in order for romney to win, he's got to sweep the southeast, including florida, where we are. abc has boem up right now in their poll and north carolina which is also neck and neck. he has to not only win ohio but essentially run the tables. right now, ohio, if you look at about a dozen polls, has obama up by somewhere betwee...