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"decision 2010" oil politics. a candidate apparently advocating for drilling in lake michigan or so one democrat claims. we bring you margin of error. this is the amount in either direction a poll could be wrong so it's best to use an example. if a poll number said 50% with a 3% margin of error, that mean technically could be as high as 53% or as low as 47% but -- >> however, this is a crutch and the single most misleading number ever reported with an accurate poll. why? because it is the maximum amount that a poll could be wrong. it is not as if it is equally a possible that a poll is wrong...

Darren ravel joins us now. the rumors are flying it's all about the heat, making this from connecticut. do we read anything into that? what are the tea leaves saying? >> as you know, chuck, it is all about rumors. first staying with the cavs and then going to the heat and then going to the bulls. yesterday, he was going to the knicks. so much so that msg stock, the parent company of the knicks, madison square garden, up 6.4%, trading at 8 times the normal volume. everyone thought it was the knicks. he was hearing at a steakhouse allegedly even though he was in akron at the basketball camp. yes...

Will make his decision live tonight in an espn one-hour special. other stories making headlines today, three suspected members of al qaeda are under arrest in norway for what officials say was a bomb threat. the three men under surveillance for more than a year. in new york, five more men charged yesterday in connection with that plot to bomb the new york subway. the suspects are also accused of planning to an attack an unidentified target in britain under orders of al qaeda leaders in pakistan. the coast guard is searching for two people missing after a duck boat crash in philadelphia yeste...

Rate can start coming down and why the president's not just campaigning but talking about jobs, as well. >> more of a selling of the economy and not the democrats. >> yeah. what the administration needs to do is look competent on this. they need to look like they're on top of this and moving in the right direction and not out of control and i think what the republicans are trying to say is they don't have a plan on jobs and criticism ahead of the president's visit to missouri is going to be a small green factory, produced 50 jobs and we have lost thousands of jobs and that's what the administr...

All right, guys. be good there in toronto. steve liesman, thanks. >> thanks. up next in today's "decision 2010" top issues the candidates are returning from and against in the midterm election cycle. first, g-ometry. the study of, well, the g-20, the g-8. some people say we should really just have a g-2, right, chuck? china and the u.s.? >> savannah what did one g-20 leader say to the other g-20 leader? >> you got me. >> i should have had a g-8. >> please. >> washington state, really bad puns like that. clarify -- >> courtesy of -- chuck todd. >> send us an e-mail. "the daily rundown" at m...