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Coming in tonight, the predictions going on? >> well, i have no reason to think otherwise, look, polls have margins of error and if you look at them you realize each of these candidates, you know, following could be within 3 or 4 percentage points up or down, and you could jumpble the order of finish pretty, in any number of different ways and you could certainly bring up one of the candidates who looks like he might come in-- he or she might come in fourth and have that person come in in the top three, which would be, you know, if rick santorum doesn't finish in the top three, it seems to me ...

I mean, he has -- >> got the biggest downside, you think? >> spent the most money going after newt gingrich. he is the biggest name in the field. he has done a pretty good job the last couple of weeks in iowa, but if he doesn't finish, you know, first or second, i think the social conservatives are going to smell some blood, and they are going to say, hey, wait a minute, you know. i really believe that iowa is so different. it really is a crap shoot all the way down to the end. even the governor of iowa said that. it's a tough one to call. if you're polling in high double digits and if you're ...

If rick santorum comes in second maybe rick santorum is the story out of iowa. you don't know how these things play. who doesn't finish in the top three. if newt gingrich is fourth or fifth or michele bachmann is sixth, there is going to be questions about how and whether they should carry on. >> does it widdle the field down and narrow the selection? it seems in this landscape that most everybody will likely stay in. they have no reason to leave. >> i think if bachmann is in a distant sixth place, she is not going to win in new hampshire and south carolina, it depends who wins. she will proba...

In fact, his last event isn't until january 3rd, which also happens to be the day iowans finally cast their votes. ray sullivan is communications director for the perry campaign. ray, it does not take a political genius, and i'm not professing to be one, to say that you guys are spending lots of time, energy, and money in iowa. given that, if rick perry doesn't finish in the top three, does he have to drop out of the race? >> i don't think there's any definitive answers right now, chris, in this wild republican primary race. the governor's doing what he likes to do best. he's talking one on on...

Rights. he passioned the healthcare program ma massachusetts that's so similar to obama-care. he didn't get the opportunity to kick thing off the way he wanted to in iowa. but he will be kicking off his campaign officially in new hampshire officially thursday. shannon: i got to ask you, i understand -- >> reporter: popcorn that doesn't pop and a campaign event that doesn't finish is not the metaphor he wants. shannon: he won't answer the question that if he was president would you sign the budget proposal that came from paul ryan. has he taken a position on that. >> reporter: former governor t...