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Screening of likely voters. they say the error margin is 3% to 4%. that's nonsense. that's sampling error. that assumes everything else, including the screening, for likely voters is 100% right. nate silver is a clerk who compiles polls. those probabilities he comes up with are meaningless because they're no better than the inaccurate polls on which they're based. >> so you said you have a gut feeling about donald trump's presidency. you predicted he would win it. now you have another prediction, which is based on your instinct but nonetheless, obviously, you've been proven right before. so, w...

And 24 million viewers and don't get the sense here there's 1% for everybody, a floor, low standards. >> so, fox had no floor. you think it is better that cnn will have a 1% floor? >> yeah, because what if there was a 5% floor? well, and the fox, 5% support, you split made the cut, you might have not made the cut, depending on the ranking. we don't want to have a ranking because of the error margin and the range. so you have taken away the rounding, that's good. both you and fox are using good, scientific polls. the democracy will not suffer if there's no mcclatchy/marist poll for your debate ...

The republicans, which then could be leading into a spike. >> well, thanks for the segue. that's the last part of what i want to say. the u.s. and the 19 million barrels of oil a day is less than a quarter of world oil demand. and world oil demand has gone up continuously throughout this period because the emerging markets are using more and more. >> china, brazil, india. >> and so on. and if you look at the very last chart, and this gets to katty's point. the real problem we have right this minute in the short-term is a very tight supply demand equation. there's not a lot of excess supply of ...

Showed mitt romney in the lead had 750 interviews and public policy polling at 597 interviews. there is a smaller error margin in those. but what we're seeing among all these candidates or a number of them they're bunched when you take the real clear politics average within the error margin of just about any poll. and we know that they can change opinion quickly. newt gingrich is the latest candidate to go up and down. republican voters say they believe in traditional marriage but they have been quick to divorce a candidate. jon: all right. well, roughly half of the, at least according to that...

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