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Commentary  Markets are in a state of heightened anxiety as the Federal Reserve is shifting to a tightening ...

Rapid QT both increases the supply of duration and shrinks the cash balances of banks, the marginal buyer of duration. Rates may spike.

<h4><span>Focus</span></h4> <p><span>In March 2020, as the Covid-19 crisis intensified, stress emerged in the market for Treasury securities. During the period 9&ndash;18 March, the 10-year yield surged sharply by 64 basis points while the stock market kept falling. This is contrary to typical risk-off events which are characterised by a simultaneous drop in equity prices and long-term yields. In response to these developments, on 15 March 2020 the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (the Fed) unveiled a new programme to buy large a...

February 28, 2021 | Doug Noland: “Fed Credibility Is Evaporating Along With Bond Prices” John Rubino John is author or co-author of five books, including of The Money Bubble, The Collapse of the Dollar and How to Profit From It, Clean Money: Picking Winners in the Green-Tech Boom and How to Profit from the Coming Real Estate Bust. A former Wall Street analyst and featured columnist with TheStreet.com, he currently writes for CFA Magazine. Doug Noland is out with his latest Credit Bubble Bulletin, following a week in which some of the things he’s been warning about began to happen. Defi...

Doug Noland is out with his latest Credit Bubble Bulletin, following a week in which some of the things he’s been warning about began to happen. Definitely read the whole thing (especially the exchange between Representative Warren Davidson and Fed Chair Jerome Powell). But in the meantime here’s a brief excerpt: Global bond markets have an inflation problem. The international central bank community has an inflation problem. Perhaps Treasuries and the Fed face the biggest challenge in managing around mounting inflationary risks. The U.S., after all, is running unprecedented peacetime d...