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Ethiopia's Civil War: Cutting a Deal to Stop the Bloodshed

The combatants in northern Ethiopia are digging in for a long fight, despite high fatalities and famine conditions for civilians. The war looks set to worsen. Outside powers should back the African Union’s new envoy in urging the parties to move instead toward a ceasefire.

Amhara , Amara , Ethiopia , Iran , Gondar , Oromo , Egypt , Moyale , Eastern , Kenya , Sudan , Belgium

Post-war Prospects for Nagorno-Karabakh

What’s new? A Russian-brokered ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan ended a six-week war in and around Nagorno-Karabakh, but skirmishes on the border point to unresolved tensions. On the post-war front lines, a scramble to dig new positions, mass displacement and a humanitarian crisis make for a fragile situation.
Why does it matter? Already frictions along the new front line, which lies close to civilian settlements, threaten renewed violence. The longer it takes for Nagorno-Karabakh residents to return home and resume some semblance of normal life, the harder it will be to jump-start future peace efforts.
What should be done? Russian peacekeepers need a clear mandate for their long-term deployment. The parties should build upon ad hoc contacts to create a regular channel for addressing urgent problems. They must stop holding international humanitarian aid hostage to the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh’s status that lies at the conflict’s core.

Karabakh , Dagestan , Russia , Armenia , Azerbaijan , Gegharkunik , Geghark-unik , Shusha , Susa , United-states , Azeri , Vayots-dzor

Ending Nigeria's Herder-Farmer Crisis: The Livestock Reform Plan

What’s new? In 2019, Nigerian authorities launched a ten-year National Livestock Transformation Plan to curtail the movement of cattle, boost livestock production and quell the country’s lethal herder-farmer conflict. But inadequate political leadership, delays, funding uncertainties and a lack of expertise could derail the project. COVID-19 has exacerbated the challenges.
Why did it happen? Violence fuelled by environmental degradation and competition over land has aggravated long-running tensions in the country’s northern and central regions. A surge in bloodshed in 2018 prompted Nigeria’s federal government to formulate a far-reaching set of reforms for the livestock sector.
Why does it matter? The new Plan represents Nigeria’s most comprehensive strategy yet to encourage pastoralists to switch to ranching and other sedentary livestock production systems. Modernising the livestock sector is key to resolving the herder-farmer conflict, which threatens Nigeria’s political stability and food security.

Kurudu , Abuja-federal-capital-territory , Nigeria , Australia , Chad , Niger , Fulani , Zamfara , Brazil , Gitata , Nigeria-general , Dawa

Deeply Rooted: Coca Eradication and Violence in Colombia

What’s new? Coca crops have set record yields in Colombia since the 2016 peace accord with FARC guerrillas, persuading the government to expand its forced eradication campaign with the backing of U.S. authorities. Bogotá claims that eliminating the plant will reduce rural violence.
Why does it matter? Insecurity in Colombia’s countryside has steadily got worse in recent years as armed groups vie with one another and the military for supremacy. Enhanced eradication, and potentially aerial fumigation, could intensify violence by forcing farmers into the clutches of armed outfits, while failing to stop the replanting of coca.
What should be done? Colombia and the U.S., the lead outside backer of tough counter-narcotic policies in Latin America, should turn the page on using force against coca farmers in a bid to dent global cocaine supply. Boosting rural economies, forging ahead with crop substitution and avoiding clashes with cultivators would make for better policy.

Colombia , Guaviare , Guainíco , Los-andes , Tolima , El-tiempo , Magdalena , United-states , Bolivia , Washington , White-house , District-of-columbia

The Rebels Come to Khartoum: How to Implement Sudan's New Peace Agreement

What’s new? A peace agreement signed on 3 October 2020 paves the way for armed and unarmed opposition groups in Sudan to join the transitional government, dramatically expanding representation of the country’s peripheries during the interim period before elections. The two most powerful rebel movements remain outside the accord, however.
Why does it matter? Clinching the agreement was necessary for the country’s transition but implementation poses challenges. The agreement risks bloating the military and sets up a prospective political alliance between the rebels and Sudanese security forces, which could further sideline the government’s civilian cabinet and threaten to bury its reform agenda.

An-nil-al-azraq , Sudan , Qatar , Chad , Red-sea , Djibouti-general , Djibouti , Paris , France-general , France , United-kingdom , Jaalin

Disorder on the Border: Keeping the Peace between Colombia and Venezuela

What’s new? Crime and violence have simmered along the lengthy Colombian-Venezuelan frontier for decades. But the regional spillover of Venezuela’s political conflict and economic collapse has caused ties between the two states to fray as well, amid border closures, a migrant exodus and rival military exercises.
Why does it matter? Numerous armed groups clash with one another and harm citizens along a border marked by abundant coca crops and informal crossings. High bilateral tensions could spur escalating border hostilities while perpetuating the mistreatment of migrants and refugees whose movements have been restricted by COVID-19.
What should be done? Colombian and Venezuelan authorities should urgently establish communication channels to resolve violent incidents along the border, possibly with international backing. They should reopen formal border crossings as planned, but also increase humanitarian aid to help ensure that migrants and refugees are healthy and can move safely.

Venezuela , Colombia , Rastrojo , Lara , Zulia , La-guajira , El-tiempo , Magdalena , Tragedia , Departamento-de-cordoba , Amazonas , United-states