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Handling the Risks of Honduras' High-stakes Poll

With general elections approaching in Honduras, memories of the turbulence around the 2017 vote remain fresh. To avoid a repeat, politicians in Tegucigalpa should pledge to respect the results and authorities should clarify who would resolve any dispute. External actors should prepare to help.

Honduras , Taiwan , Tegucigalpa , Francisco-morazáho , United-states , Bolivia , Washington , White-house , District-of-columbia , El-salvador , China , Haiti

Managing Lebanon's Compounding Crises

Lebanon is suffering economic meltdown while its politicians dither. Reform – and fiscal relief – is unlikely before 2022 elections. While pushing for timely polls, international partners should send humanitarian assistance to ease the public’s pain, keep key infrastructure running and avert security breakdowns.

Bar-elias , Béa , Lebanon , United-states , Bekaa-valley , Choueifat , Mont-liban , Batroun , Liban-nord , Al-mayadeen , Dayr-az-zawr , Syria

Electoral Violence and Illicit Influence in Mexico's Hot Land

Campaign season in Mexico has seen a rash of murders, as organised crime seeks to cement its influence no matter which parties win. The government needs to keep trying to break bonds between criminals and authorities, beginning with efforts tailored to the country’s hardest-hit areas.

New-york , United-states , Coatetelco , Puebla , Mexico , Adri , Comunidad-autonoma-de-cataluna , Spain , American-university , District-of-columbia , Zacatecas , Washington

The Risks of a Rigged Election in Nicaragua

What’s new? Three years after the government responded to massive protests with a lethal crackdown, killing hundreds and displacing thousands, Nicaragua approaches its November presidential and legislative elections in a climate of extreme polarisation. State persecution of the fragmented opposition and fears of a skewed election persist amid a prolonged economic slump.
Why does it matter? Although protests have waned since 2019, the grievances underlying the uprising remain unaddressed. Disquiet has grown over President Daniel Ortega’s remoteness and increasingly authoritarian rule. A fraught election could further isolate the government internationally and rekindle domestic unrest.
What should be done? The government should reverse reforms that tilt the playing field and agree with the opposition on measures to ensure a fair poll, while committing to political coexistence after the elections. Foreign powers should push Ortega to run a clean vote and encourage dialogue and compromise on both sides.

United-states , Honduras , Monterrey , Nuevo-leóx , Mexico , United-kingdom , Catarina , Boaco , Nicaragua , Russia , Grand-canal , New-york

The Exile Effect: Venezuela's Overseas Opposition and Social Media

What’s new? As Nicolás Maduro forces dissidents to flee Venezuela, exiles have come to play important roles influencing both the opposition’s political strategy and international policy toward Caracas. Analysis of social media suggests that exile can lead opposition members to use strident rhetoric and advocate aggressive ideas more often than domestic counterparts.
Why does it matter? Internationally facilitated negotiations remain Venezuela’s best path to peace, and the new U.S. administration might very well pursue them. Their success rests on all parties’ willingness to accept compromise. Conciliatory attitudes could be undermined not only by crackdowns in Venezuela but also by prominent exiles’ views.

Venezuela , Cuba , Honduras , Bogot , Ivanovskaya-oblast , Russia , La-patilla , Estado-guarico , United-states , United-kingdom , Rusia , Caquetao