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Handling the Risks of Honduras' High-stakes Poll

With general elections approaching in Honduras, memories of the turbulence around the 2017 vote remain fresh. To avoid a repeat, politicians in Tegucigalpa should pledge to respect the results and authorities should clarify who would resolve any dispute. External actors should prepare to help.

Honduras , Taiwan , Tegucigalpa , Francisco-morazáho , United-states , Bolivia , Washington , White-house , District-of-columbia , El-salvador , China , Haiti

Managing Lebanon's Compounding Crises

Lebanon is suffering economic meltdown while its politicians dither. Reform – and fiscal relief – is unlikely before 2022 elections. While pushing for timely polls, international partners should send humanitarian assistance to ease the public’s pain, keep key infrastructure running and avert security breakdowns.

Bar-elias , Béa , Lebanon , United-states , Bekaa-valley , Choueifat , Mont-liban , Batroun , Liban-nord , Al-mayadeen , Dayr-az-zawr , Syria

Reversing Central Mali's Descent into Communal Violence

Reversing Central Mali's Descent into Communal Violence
crisisgroup.org - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from crisisgroup.org Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.

Mali , Mopti , Burkina-faso , Maputo , Mozambique , Douna , Mali-general- , Niger , Paris , France-general- , France , Soufouroulaye

Taking Aim at the Tatmadaw: The New Armed Resistance to Myanmar's Coup

What’s new? Following Myanmar’s 1 February coup, newly organised militias have launched attacks in several parts of the country in response to regime killings of demonstrators. These lightly armed bands have inflicted significant casualties on the security forces, who have struck back with heavy weapons and bombardment of residential areas.
Why does it matter? The regime’s heavy-handed, indiscriminate retaliation has displaced tens of thousands of men, women and children. Local networks and humanitarian agencies are unable to adequately assist these people, due to security and access restrictions, including military arrests, confiscation of supplies, and killings of those trying to deliver aid.

Chin-state , Myanmar , Sagaing , Sagain , India , Rakhine-state , Arakan , Yangon , Thailand , Kayah-state , Ukraine , Aung-hlaing

Stemming the Insurrection in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado

Deadly conflict in Mozambique’s ruby- and natural gas-rich northernmost coastal province feeds on a mix of colonial-era tensions, inequality and Islamist militancy. To tame the insurrection, Maputo needs to use force, with bespoke assistance from outside partners, and to carefully address underlying grievances.

Mozambique , Tanzania , Cabo-delgado , Somalia , Namacande , South-africa , Yemen , Praia , Cape-verde-general , Cape-verde , Pemba , Kenya

Post-war Prospects for Nagorno-Karabakh

What’s new? A Russian-brokered ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan ended a six-week war in and around Nagorno-Karabakh, but skirmishes on the border point to unresolved tensions. On the post-war front lines, a scramble to dig new positions, mass displacement and a humanitarian crisis make for a fragile situation.
Why does it matter? Already frictions along the new front line, which lies close to civilian settlements, threaten renewed violence. The longer it takes for Nagorno-Karabakh residents to return home and resume some semblance of normal life, the harder it will be to jump-start future peace efforts.
What should be done? Russian peacekeepers need a clear mandate for their long-term deployment. The parties should build upon ad hoc contacts to create a regular channel for addressing urgent problems. They must stop holding international humanitarian aid hostage to the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh’s status that lies at the conflict’s core.

Karabakh , Dagestan , Russia , Armenia , Azerbaijan , Gegharkunik , Geghark-unik , Shusha , Susa , United-states , Azeri , Vayots-dzor

Electoral Violence and Illicit Influence in Mexico's Hot Land

Campaign season in Mexico has seen a rash of murders, as organised crime seeks to cement its influence no matter which parties win. The government needs to keep trying to break bonds between criminals and authorities, beginning with efforts tailored to the country’s hardest-hit areas.

New-york , United-states , Coatetelco , Puebla , Mexico , Adri , Comunidad-autonoma-de-cataluna , Spain , American-university , District-of-columbia , Zacatecas , Washington

Turkey-Greece: From Maritime Brinkmanship to Dialogue

What’s new? Turkey and Greece have returned to talks after their mid-2020 dispute over sovereignty in the eastern Mediterranean Sea devolved into the longest-lasting military face-off since the 1970s. The discussions could help the parties de-escalate tensions and move from brinkmanship to dialogue.
Why did it happen? Tensions flared in 2019-2020 when Ankara – seeking a say in energy projects – sent seismic research ships to waters contested with Greece and the Republic of Cyprus, intervened in Libya’s civil war and signed a maritime delimitation deal with Tripoli. Turkey’s rivals have increasingly aligned with Greece over competing sovereignty claims.

Ionian-sea , Oceans-general , Oceans , Qatar , United-states , Kastellorizo , Perifereia-notiou-aigaiou , Greece , Czech-republic , Faik , Sanliurfa , Turkey

South-western Niger: Preventing a New Insurrection

In south-western Niger, organised banditry could reinforce mistrust between ethnic groups and foster insurgencies that jihadists could exploit. The Nigerien authorities should take action to remedy the injustices experienced by communities living off livestock, initiate intercommunal dialogues and better supervise fledgling self-defence groups.

Doutchi , Zinder , Niger , Jima-jimi , Sokoto , Nigeria , Burkina-faso , Dosso , United-states , Matankari , Fulani , Zamfara

The Cost of the Coup: Myanmar Edges Toward State Collapse

What’s new? The 1 February coup has plunged Myanmar into political, social and economic turmoil. Mass protests, public- and private-sector worker strikes, and the security forces’ brutal violence against the population, including the killing of at least 158 unarmed civilians on 27 March, are pushing the country toward collapse.
Why does it matter? Neither the military regime nor the popular uprising is likely to prevail soon. Nor is either likely to back down. The crisis is set to deepen, with the prospects of greater bloodshed, economic damage, humanitarian emergency and refugee flight to neighbouring countries growing in coming months.
What should be done? Getting the regime to change course will be an uphill struggle. Still, foreign actors should not recognise the junta; they should impose arms embargoes and targeted sanctions on the military and its interests. Asian and Western powers should continue working together. Donors should plan for significant humanitarian and development needs.

Yangon , Myanmar , Naypyitaw , Mandalay , Vietnam , Republic-of , Aung-hlaing , Ayeyarwady , Arakan , New-york , United-states , Japan