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Of republican leaders, mcconnell, and ryan, who is getting out of town at the end of the year, what is it they say that maybe the president isn't looking at? they see this, the history of presidents with low approval ratings and what is happening in midterm election as catastrophe for obama and the democrats in '10. a catastrophe for rush and the republicans in '06. a catastrophe for clinton and the democrats in '94. his number wasn't even that bad. you see that hit zone. that's something republican leaders see. what else do they see? the special elections. where a democratic won a seat, trump...

Midterm strategy. we thought the best way to cover this was with our best guy at his best board. so steve kornacki is at the big board tonight with a look at what that will tell us about what's coming up. hey, steve. >> hey, brian. yes, republicans are getting nervous. they're nervous about their prospects. they're nervous, they say, about maybe the president doesn't see what they're seeing. we want to take you through what we think is sort of at the heart of this disconnect. so first of all, republicans like paul ryan, like mitch mcconnell, the establish. what is it exactly what they're seein...

Nervous. they're nervous about their prospects. they're nervous the president maybe doesn't see what they're seeing. we want to take you through what we think is sort of at 9 heart of this disconnect. first of all republicans like paul ryan, mitch mcconnell, the establishment, what is it exactly that they're seeing right now when they look at the midterms? one thing they're looking at is a low approval rating for donald trump. we know this. we know he's at 42%. he's been around there for a while. that is the hit zone historically for a president in a midterm to lose a lot of seats. look, trump...

Afford to lose. certainly historically, he's already in that hit zone. what else do republicans see? special election results. look at this, five times now since trump has become president, we've had special elections for the house, for congress here. and democrats have saved at least 15 points off the trump margin in these districts. they haven't always won them, but they've gotten a lot closer than these districts were in 16. that kind of movement, if you see it nationally, boy, that is a sign of a wave. that's something else republicans are seeing. just that question of the generic belt. yo...

First of all republicans like paul ryan, mitch mcconnell, the establishment, what is it exactly that they're seeing right now when they look at the midterms? one thing they're looking at is a low approval rating for donald trump. we know this. we know he's at 42%. he's been around there for a while. that is the hit zone historically for a president in a midterm to lose a lot of seats. look, trump 42. that mid-40s, high 30s, that has translated into mega losses in the past. again, remember the number this year, 23. that's all republicans can afford to lose. certainly historically he's already i...