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It's very steady, with disapproval in the mid 50s. his base is sticking with him. the problem for republicans in november of next year is that they need more than just that. that what we're seeing -- >> isn't that what we said during the campaign and didn't that prove to be false? >> there were multiple candidates in those races, and what we're seeing, for example, in these special elections, we're seeing the democratic candidates get 75% or so of the vote that hillary clinton got, while the republican candidates are getting below 60%. these are figures that our house editor came up with. that...

To an all-time low. less than a third of the nation harbors favorable feelings toward the gop. 63% dislike them. that includes 38% who strongly dislike them. with that in mind, the cook political report is changing its early projections in 15 midterm house races. they're calling it the shutdown shift. that shift is all good news for democrats. for the first time, there are more red seats in play than the 17 seats they need to hold to remain in power. you can also look at it as dems needing to pick up 17 seats. but the dems are also defending ten seats in competitive races. here to sort all of ...

It companies y comes to midterm. a similar voting pattern. the gap has shrunk over the years. you can look at it. it always pops back up from whatever it was the presidential election before that. built on younger nonwhite voters. the republicans have consolidated older voters and white voters. and in a midterm year, that gives them a near-term advantage. though potentially slowly fading away as the decade rolls on. joining me now, david wasserman, the house editor for the cook political report. good morning to you, sir. >> good morning, professor todd. >> i think you get to be the professor i...

Donna edwards, co chair of the democratic congressional campaign committee's ready to blue program, working to win the 25 seats democrats need to take control of the house and joins me now. good morning, ms. edwards. >> good morning, luke. >> question for you. this morning in the hill, david wasserman, house editor for the cook political report said, quote, democrats are way off track of where they they'd to be to regain the majority, very respected voice in terms of the seat counting. he cites the fact the economy's improvement the has also helped republicans, and somewhat helped the presiden...

Control? let's talk to the man who is gazing into his crystal ball. larry sabato director for center of politics at the university of virginia. so in order to make nancy pelosi speaker of the house once again, democrats would need to win 25 seats but you say it is tougher than that, larry, why? >> well it is much tougher. our house editor down here surveyed all 435 house seats and the new lines that have just been established through redistricting in most of the states, and jon, at most, you're going to have 60 truly competitive races out of 435 at most. and, democrats not only have to gain 25...