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>> it's really hard to say. there are two unknowns. one unknown is what the military is going to do. obviously the trump administration and others have been reaching out to the venezuelan military trying to entice them and encourage them to turn against president maduro, to get rid of him then be part of this transition in offering -- guaido, the self-declared president, also offered amnesty. no sign yet of a mass defection by the military and if that doesn't happen, the question will be if maduro is still if power for another week, two weeks, another month, three months, what does the u.s. do...

Firm as well? >> we know that gates was the one that initiated the contact. this was, interestingly, in march/april 2016, right after gates was hired on to the campaign with paul manafort to -- for a specific task at that time. their job was to make sure the delegates, the republican delegates didn't have a mass defection during the convention for ted cruz, who at the time you recall was sort of the preferred republican establishment candidate. their concern was the delegates. one of the proposals was specifically targeting the delegates to make sure that they didn't defect, to sort of push st...

Howard taft. the dissension and the fracture was not as wide. now will that cause mass defection among hard-core republican partisan voters? no, probably not. what it does do is contributes to the problem we've been talking about in the suburbs as we've talked about before, donald trump is the first republican ever at risk of losing college educated white voters. it never happened in the history of polling going back to 1952 and if you look at pennsylvania which you've been talking about and the poll that came out yesterday the maris poll he is trailing not only by 34 points among college educ...

N tough districts and don't want to be seen with the national party. there are republicans who aren't going to their convention too but it's important to remember, these are incumbent lawmakers who don't want to be seen near the president. they're not the challenger, in 2008, there were five republican senators who avoided their party's convention who were in tough reelection battles. four of them lost. it's an interesting thing to remember, that perhaps a sign. also in '92 you had mass defection, people not going to the republican convention and we remember what happened. >> do you expect the...

>> despite the apology, there's new tension along the syrian, turkey border. >> very tense. for the third day the turkish jets were scrambled because they saw syrian helicopters get very close up to the border. they're on high alert. there was no action taken. the syrian helicopters did not cross the border. along that border, another mass defection. the word is 85 soldiers, including a general, and a couple of high ranking officers, coming over from the syrian army into turkey. we've seen a lot of that. we saw a lot of that in our time in syria but this is one of the biggest groups and a sign...