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Takes a big step toward a 2012 white house run. former minnesota governor tim pawlenty announcing the launch of a presidential committee. he's also the first high profile republican to do this. former house speaker newt gingrich announced he's in the exploratory phase but stopped short of forming a committee. so what's going on? larry sabato is directer of the university of virginia's center for politics. he is also the author of "pendulum swing." so tim pawlenty has the exploratory committee underway, but he's not the only republican running, right? >> oh, no. there will be mitt romney, haley...

Way. >> yeah, with a $1.6 trillion deficit, just in this year, you wondered who the 32% are. look, here's the truth. in november, we had an electoral earthquake. it was about the economy. but it was also about the debt. we are about to have the number one aftershock from that earthquake. it's coming up as a vote in march or april about the debt limit. that's when you're going to see some kind of agreement reached that will have the most political and governmental implications for all of 2011. i think it will be the most significant event that happens at least it's on the schedule for 2011. >> ...

Indications of who could be the 2012 nominee sf>> joins you for reaction is the author of the new book "pendulum swing" and director of the center for politics at the university of virginia, best about in the business, dr. larry sabato. welcome back. first off. >> thank you. >> straw poll is out. i guess he's going to get the nomination, am i right? ron paul is going to win? >> no, he's not going to win and that straw poll means absolutely nothing. it measures the intensity of support in a room full of activists and ron paul has a lot of strong activists and they love him and show up at these ...

Father? >> you mean, by becoming a liberal as opposed to conservative? >> just by becoming sort of different. you were really a pendulum swing from him. >> if i thought that, i wouldn't have any trouble admitting it, but i really don't. i've always had a sense from as long as i can remember that i was myself. i didn't wake up in the morning and look in the mirror and say, i'm the president's son or ronald reagan's son. i'm me. so from a very early age, if i disagreed with him, we'd disagree, and i'd stick to my guns, which could be frustrating at times. >> did you ever, while he was in office,...

Life magazine. she was beautiful anyway. and there were television specials at night when there were really only three or four choices back in those days. you had to watch stlash nixon on all the channels. they were two hour prime time specials to give you an idea of how big these events were. >> now, interestingly, there has been sort of a pendulum swing back more towards privacy. we think about jenna bush, the last first daughter who got married. i remember they were so tightly controlled about even letting us know what was on the menu. there certainliy no tv cameras there. much quieter out ...