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Joining us now from prescott, arizona, von hilliard who's been all over the campaign trail for months. he hasn't been home in years at this point. election day is here. congratulations on arriving there in one piece. that senate race is a dead heat right now. which way does it look like it may break? >> reporter: about 75-80% of the electorate in arizona in the senate race have already cast their votes. the voter makeup has been about a 7.4% advantage for republicans. in the last three midterms, it was a plus 12% advantage for republicans.

Advantage in early voting. this year they're averaging a plus 7.4. trump won by three points a couple years ago. was he plus 12 in early voting as well a couple years ago? >> reporter: no. he was at about plus eight percentage points. i think what we're going to pay attention to is the independents in this race here. independents here make up a third of the electorate. they are just shy of topping republican voter registration here in the state. in our last nbc news poll, kristin cinema had a 26% advantage over martha mcsally. >> thank you so much. two things. again, you never know which way t...

Happen. let me answer your question on immigration. president although as larry says, republicans are facing trouble in some house districts, the president's approval rating is right around where it was on inauguration day. he's got his base with him, number one and number two, the democrats have a plus eight or plus 1/2 in the generic congressional ballot. that's not the same as having that kind of lead in especially these red states where a lot of democrats are up for re-election income senate races in red states and these house races even if democrats win will be much closer. >> you took us...

The role immigration, diversity plays in making america stronger. one segment that doesn't get enough attention is what we're calling the independent blues. they were plus 12 for hillary but plus 20 or so now in democrats. slightly more neal than male. they agree with democrats on a lot of issues. health care, education. they don't think the federal government -- sometimes they prefer state government. i think of indemnify as a modern day reagan democrat. in particular they are concerned about the over use of political correctness, and americans have become too politically sensitive which draw...

Strate strategically had it gone down in flames, then they would have came out on november 6. the president has to do everything he can to rally his base. every rally he does his greatest hits. it helped in pennsylvania or in the ohio 12th which only went by a few thousand votes to the republicans in a plus 12 republican district. he can't do that all over and there are more fired up democrats than there are republican. >> when you talk about the greatest hits, we're hearing the same thing over and over again. with the president falling back and using that terminology because he thinks he'll g...