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They may say he doesn't have all the' the'' -- >> i was watching kelly ward, she was in a tough race against martha mcsally. who do you think is going to pull it us? >> martha mcsally. >> even though the polls are close? >> the polls are close, but not that much. i think arpiao messes it up more than mcsally. >> does that graphic say 15% right now? >> 15% for joe arpiao. >> that 15 plus 27. we want to saw thank you to rotini the pig who belongs to one jeremy rosenberger, thanks

Help him any time soon. the wild card is the president. the president knows his supporters and who his most vocal supporters have been. as bob notes the president knows who's been on tv supporting him so you can't calculate what he's going to do in his 280 character platform. i think the white house political operation is keenly aware of the map and that they don't have the money or resources to put into a plus 26 plus 27 republican district even if they wanted to so they'll try to stay away but you never know if the president decides he wants to wade into it. >> bob, before we go, it seemed t...

District, it brings us tonight to put this in some kind of context. this is going way back, a generation or two. this was is not one of the dists we talked about in 2016 that just flipped because of trump. it was for trump by about 20. it was for romney by basically the same margin in 2012. the big turn happened about the turn of the century. it's really become increasingly republican since then. this would not be just a drop-off from trump's levels. this would be a drop-off if there republican levels in the 21st century. the other thing, as we wait for the final votes that we can say with cer...

To wake up to, the fact that they shouldn't walk the plank for trump or they need to do more to sort of solidify whatever is going on with trump? >> a looming disaster for republicans on the stage of their biggest successes in american politics in a generation. these state capitals are the bread basket of republican politics and power and for donald trump in the midwest. these states like michigan and wisconsin are the places where he flipped a lot of these voters who were democrats. if there's weakening in those places, sit is a bad sign for te party and the president for 2018. joe? >> it's...

Digits. historically, if that's where a party is heading into a midterm that's a great place for that party to be. the president's approval rating, donald trump's average approval rating now sits at 39%. it's basically been in this range all the way. again, historically this is a number that clearly and overwhelmingly favors the opposition party. and the third trend that we've been seeing is the actual results. this year remember we've had a number of special house elections. now, look, the republicans won the first one out in kansas but the story here, a 20-point swing. it was a trump plus 27...