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Gallup did a poll of 9,000 people before the election, which by the way this led to some of the confusion on the polls and that showed this electorate was plus 3 r, plus 3 republicans. gallup. that's a huge poll and now they do a poll that says, 47% of americans identify democrats or independents who consider themselves democrats, versus 42% who lean republican. so, something feels like it's shifting chris. >> well, i mean, there are a lot of things that go into that and this is the kind of stuff that i talk about every day. a lot of people don't want to identify with the republican party anym...

Our latest daily tracking poll, obama 49%, romney 48%. so i'm going to do what a lot of people do. i'm going to wait to see what michael barone says about the county by county turnout in some key swing states. megyn: i want to ask you what emerged now is a discussion about whether these polls that have shown president obama a little ahead. a couple show him a little ahead and there is a question about whether they are assuming this electorate will look like it did in 2008. the dem's final number was dem plus 7. their polls this time around show this a republican electorate r-plus 3.

Obama into the white house last time. >> d plus 7. in 2008 obama won by seven points over mccain, and they're kind of counting on a turnout -- not in every state, but of a d plus 7. if it's plus 7 or plus, obama's going to win. if it's d plus 3 or a republican edge -- because they think they have an edge in independents -- then romney's going to win. it's so interesting, though, i've been reading these polls, and real clear politics which does a really good job, it's a web site, realclearpolitics.com, and they average all the recent polls, you look at ohio, and either obama wins, or it's a tie...

If it's plus 3 republican in those swing states it's tough to see how obama wins and that explains the conflict. bill: the point you make is well-taken, because you can dissect these numbers anyway you want and you can find information to confirm what you're looking for. megyn: right, right, that is exactly right. truly having tried to just be an honest consumer of what everybody is putting out on screen and off screen on all the channels my impression today is no one knows, they are all trying to spin us, the democrats want us to believe that this is a forgone conclusion that obama will win t...

Costs, the facts behind the tax policy. so even if you set aside the proposition about whether you are winning or losing, because all of these things can be temporary at the beginning of the campaign, but getting to the details in a factual way is important. if you cannot boil down your message as candidate, never mind about a bumper sticker but a sound bite, how you express it to voters that's exactly the problem that they are in. the details are difficult but difficult not to explain but difficult for middle class voters. >> i had the same difficulty in junior high school trying to make 5 pl...