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Even a point or two, republicans more enthusiastic to vote for him and democrats slightly enthusiastic voting for her, it can matter on election day. and you were talking about if it's a four or five-point race, nah, and if it's a one-point race, that's something. if she is winning by eight points, doesn't change, and if she is winning by two, it does. >> chris just said in a abc washington post poll trump is up one? >> up one natalionallynationall. >> and prior to this, it was 42, 45, clinton. >> it has gone from plus 12 to plus 4 on friday, to plus 2 and plus 1, and trump is now up 1. mark h...

But looking back at polls for a second. averaging polls after polls, she's up by six. which you got to remember i think the president won with less than 5 percentage points. so six for a divided polarizing country, six is not a bad number and i want to talk about florida for a second. i think the poll, the bloomberg poll is an outlier. and bloomberg is historically known for bad sampling. the party i.d. for republicans is plus 4. which can't be the case because florida demographics is changing. african americans in that poll is at 12. and it should be between 14 and 15. so i think that poll is...

Bellwether polling how that particular state is going to point. >> as clinton appears to be leading her lead in the national polls at about seven points before the final debate, and historically speaking how good of an indication is the final outcome is the poll conducted weeks before voting day? >> again, historically, it's a good indicator, however, you know, it's dangerous, and i have to warn your viewers, the next four polls to drop off the real clear politics are clinton plus, six, nine, ten and 12. unless the next four polls are 6, 9, 10 and 12, that average will drop to maybe plus 4 to ...

Of trump. after an averaging of all the polls in the state, real clear politics says cruz is up on plus 4 at 30.2%. with trump number two, 26.2, rubio third at 12.3 and carson hanging on to fourth at 10. granted, iowa may end up choosing a different winner in the caucus than new hampshire or even south carolina, but it could also be an indicator of momentum for one particular candidate peaking at just the right time. who that is remains to be seen. coming up on "the real story," senior u.s. defense official tells fox news that all six nato troops killed in an attack in afghanistan were all ame...

In the horse race. ted cruz is ahead by kind of a lot. and he's perceived to be the winner. he's got a plus 23 net score. the beltway media i think mostly decided that marco rubio was the winner. that is not how republican viewers nationwide saw it. they saw it that ted cruz won. and that presumably might be what's driving overall support for him. but now look at the other debate performance numbers from the other candidates. again, this is a really big national survey of republican voters and here's how they ranked performance in the debate. ted cruz is at the top. and then below him it's mar...