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Our latest daily tracking poll, obama 49%, romney 48%. so i'm going to do what a lot of people do. i'm going to wait to see what michael barone says about the county by county turnout in some key swing states. megyn: i want to ask you what emerged now is a discussion about whether these polls that have shown president obama a little ahead. a couple show him a little ahead and there is a question about whether they are assuming this electorate will look like it did in 2008. the dem's final number was dem plus 7. their polls this time around show this a republican electorate r-plus 3.

So obama is up by 2. it causes people to say that's probably not going to be right. your thoughts on that analysis. >> the partisan makeup of a poll is the most important determinate. our own numbers compared to four years ago, the democrats had a 7-point advantage. d-plus 7. we are showing d-plus 2 today. that means republicans have a 5-point pickup from four years ago. i think if a state poll is showing similar partisan breakdowns from four years ago it's probably tilting in the president's direction. but we don't know how much of the republican enthusiasm will translate into more voters at ...

Obama into the white house last time. >> d plus 7. in 2008 obama won by seven points over mccain, and they're kind of counting on a turnout -- not in every state, but of a d plus 7. if it's plus 7 or plus, obama's going to win. if it's d plus 3 or a republican edge -- because they think they have an edge in independents -- then romney's going to win. it's so interesting, though, i've been reading these polls, and real clear politics which does a really good job, it's a web site, realclearpolitics.com, and they average all the recent polls, you look at ohio, and either obama wins, or it's a tie...

And far too few republicans. the latest pew survey has a national margin of 3 points for obama has 4 points more democrats than republicans. but the gallup poll which is the most authoritative last week concluded that there were now three points more republicans than democrats in the country. so it's d-4 and the reality is r-3. so it's a 7-points distortion. so if you are showing romney losing by 3 he's running by 4. if you take the finding in the pew poll that republicans are 6% more likely to turn out than democrats. so instead of it being plus 7, instead of switching to it a romney win by 4...

States is his stand among independent voters. these are voters not totally affiliated to one party or another. who reviewed both men. who honestly is better for the next four years, mitt romney even in democratic polls is showing an advantage among independents by 16 points. some polls by 22. martha: tony, let me jump in. how do you explain that? how do you explain the advantage with independents, when you look at head-to-head, many cases president obama has a one percentage, one point gain, lead? >> that is a great question that should be asked of those who conduct the methodology of these po...