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He is driving the news every day. whether you love him or don't, you can't get away from him. he invokes strong reactions on both sides and that's what we are seeing in these numbers. brian: people think big turnout is big for democrats. do you still believe that. >> not necessarily, no. in fact, it depends on the district. it depends on the state. if it's a republican-leaning district or republican leaning state, big turnout would be probably good for republicans. i think it's a district by district thing overall. again, each one of these races matters, if you have a lot of democrats they tur...

Ainsley: indiana plus 9%. missouri plus 8%. north dakota plus 8%. tennessee plus 11%. brian: these are the states in which have you blue senators in red states. and in some of those states, we have watched that lead just disappear. especially missouri. where senator mccaskill took the mystery out. saying i'm not voting for him. i don't like his judicial record. steve: policy. brian: i don't like who is he as a judge. people of missouri understands she is not involved in the controversy. everyone is like wow it's time for women to stand up in the me too movement and that's fine. a lot of these ...

Intellect. the country is with him all the way. what we are talking about right there is a brand new fox news poll that came out last night, looked at number of battle ground states, five of them. and it looks as if the republicans in that state are more energized and they are suggesting it could be over the kavanaugh nomination. ainsley: elections are just a few weeks away. look at this board we have for you. this wall. it's 2% up. more republicans are interested in the elections. plus, 2% in arizona. plus 9% in indiana. plus 8% in missouri. plus 8% in north dakota. and plus 11% in tennessee....

Women, independents plus 15 last month are negative 16 now. a 31 point drop. >> boy, that's a turn around. >> seniors plus 9 in august and negative 10 now. >> gene robinson, that poll and a quarter won't buy you a cup of coffee at a starbucks on capitol hill, but it does point to the bigger -- as far as outcome, kavanaugh, none of the senators will be looking at those poll numbers, but people who are running, republicans running in the suburban districts of hillary clinton one and that republicans hold are looking at those numbers because, man, that is just one more nail in their political cof...

Their chickens before they hatch. if you look at the polls that show them up by double digits, the generic ballots are typically of registered voters that are weighted plus 9 for democrats which look similar to the polls which showed hillary clinton winning in 2016. the polls i'm interested in are the one offs likely voters. likely voters typically show democrats up 2 to 6 points which means this is more of a coin toss than people want to admit. the poll that was released recently showed 1,000 likely voters in 41 swing districts that show republicans up 3 points in the generic ballot. some of ...