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Two new polls say the same thing that president obama has gotten the big e. bounce from the conventions and you say? >> i think that's probably accurate. first of all, there is an interesting study done by two political scientists one of them tom holbrook that goes back and look at all of the conventions from 64 and democrats on average get about a 5 point bounce, that's what this one looks like this is an interesting case because this is only the second time in modern history in which we have had the conventions back to back. whatever bounce that romney get you get a bounce of having a conven...

Then senator obama, was two points behind john mccain, september 10, 2008. barack obama two points below john mccain goes on to win. let's take a look at convention bounces over the years going back to 1988 with michael dukakis. he got a 7 point bounce, bush got the bounce. bill clinton got a 16. that went against president bush's 5-point bounce. 3 points for dole. you see bouncing has kind of disappeared -- it gets down tho these tiny little bounces and steve i'm not even sure we can call what's happening now a bounce. there's a real move. you can see in this poll the president has a measurab...

Barack obama two points below john mccain goes on to win. let's take a look at convention bounces over the years going back to 1988 with michael dukakis. he got a 7 point bounce, bush got the bounce. bill clinton got a 16. that went against president bush's 5-point bounce. 3 points for dole. you see bouncing has kind of disappeared -- it gets down tho these tiny little bounces and steve i'm not even sure we can call what's happening now a bounce. there's a real move. you can see in this poll the president has a measurable move. but that isn't what we used to call a bounce. >> it isn't but the ...

>>guest: we will see six to eight point bounce. we have already seen six of the eight points for mitt romney and that will counter by four to six points so the net effect will probably be mitt romney to to four points net between both conventions pre-convention and post convention. >>neil: after the conventions whatever nominal lead governor romney has remains. why? >>guest: people are dissatisfied. when you look at the polls, people -- you look at approval rating of president obamas it is 47 stucky at 47 percent, but that tells us and the research community that 53 percent is undecided or the...

President obama got a four point bounce on the other hand, john kerry, back in 2004 got zero bounce. and president bush only two points. and this election is a lot more 2004, than like cent 00-- 2008. but i think governor romney will get a bounce. republicans survived everything from hurricane isaac to hurricane clint. >> and indeed. the fact that both conventions are happening so close together how does that affect the bounce. >> bounces tend to fade quickly. we go immediately from the republican to the democratic convention. some of us wish it would several weeks between and people can assim...