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Summer on july 5th when fbi director james comey announced there would be no charges in the e-mail investigation, but he also said at that time that hillary clinton's use of a private e-mail server was extremely careless. nate silver wrote today, that announcement brought the story back into the news and preceded a 2% percentage point drop for clinton in national polls, although there was no obvious gain for trump. voters retreated into the undecided column. how will voters react this time, and joining us, 538's nate silver. we began the day with you giving hillary clinton an 80% chance of win...

Trump in the new polling but when we turn to north carolina, you see why hillary clinton now, that state is leaning in a democratic category. she has a 4 point lead over donald trump in a two-person race. it's 5 points. let's end up going to the florida poll that came out a week ago that has hillary clinton with a 3 point lead in the sunshine state. and then we turn to pennsylvania where last week, hillary clinton has a 12 point lead over donald trump. good news for donald trump, he is ahead or tied in ohio. bad news, he has to win all four states that i just mentioned and either ahead or tied...

Camera, helping pinpoint the location of the suspects so police could make the arrest. now to some breaking news. this about cigarette smoking in the united states. >> this is coming from the centers for disease control, just releasing a new report this hour. now just under 17% of american adults are smokers. that's an all-time low, a drop of almost four points in ten years. but the rates among the uninsured are twice as high, just under 28% of uninsured adults are smokers. now, compare that to the 13% of adults with private insurance. let's break it down now. joining us is nbc news medical ...

Thought might be different. jeb bush. he came up a tiny bit in the poll but he's still struggling. why do you think that is? >> he is spending more money than everybody combined. i mean, millions now trying to push himself up. we're going to find out whether tv works. the other candidates have not. rubio has always believed he's been the dark horse. meanwhile, as doug says, the insiders primaries goes on and dominates. what i find interesting despite writing for the washington post chief political reporter, those all three don't matter. back to the insiders is that what was what we will see fo...

Thought might be different. jeb bush. he came up a tiny bit in the poll but he's still struggling. why do you think that is? >> he is spending more money than everybody combined. i mean, millions now trying to push himself up. we're going to find out whether tv works. the other candidates have not. rubio has always believed he's been the dark horse. meanwhile, as doug says, the insiders primaries goes on and dominates. what i find interesting despite writing for the washington post chief political reporter, those all three don't matter. back to the insiders is that what was what we will see fo...