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Will hold in 2012. fewer people and minorities will turn out this year. scott rasmussen and charlottesville dr. larry sabato teaches politics at the university of virginia. already, doctor, poll bounce? what's your prediction? >> i think governor romney's excellent performance is going to move the needle a couple of points. i don't think it's going to be a giant poll bounce to a single debate. the key is whether he continues showing his stuff in the remaining two presidential debates. >> bill: so beckel says 6 or 7 points. you say much less than that in the polls? >> for a single debate perfor...

Will hold in 2012. fewer people and minorities will turn out this year. scott rasmussen and charlottesville dr. larry sabato teaches politics at the university of virginia. already, doctor, poll bounce? what's your prediction? >> i think governor romney's excellent performance is going to move the needle a couple of points. i don't think it's going to be a giant poll bounce to a single debate. the key is whether he continues showing his stuff in the remaining two presidential debates. >> bill: so beckel says 6 or 7 points. you say much less than that in the polls? >> for a single debate perfor...

Will hold in 2012. fewer people and minorities will turn out this year. scott rasmussen and charlottesville dr. larry sabato teaches politics at the university of virginia. already, doctor, poll bounce? what's your prediction? >> i think governor romney's excellent performance is going to move the needle a couple of points. i don't think it's going to be a giant poll bounce to a single debate. the key is whether he continues showing his stuff in the remaining two presidential debates. >> bill: so beckel says 6 or 7 points. you say much less than that in the polls? >> for a single debate perfor...

>> the speeches and the relative quality thereof aren't always related to the size of the poll bounce. bill clinton's speech at the convention, i don't think people can point to lines that stuck out but that was the biggest convention bounce of all time, about 13 points. i don't think the jobs numbers thementsdz are going to provide a bounce. if you talk to democrats they say the numbers have been weak, consistently weak, is baked into the election now. unless things had started to really recover and rebound two or three months ago, voters weren't going to feel like the economy was recovering ...

And you'll get offers on things you love. this totally changes the way i think about membership. saving money on the things you want. to me, that's the membership effect. nice boots! we're getting the first indications of a poll bounce for president obama coming out of charlotte. the gallup daily tracking poll, which is a week long average of voter opinions had been holding steady for about a week with obama up just one point. today, that adds up to a three-point lead. it's now 48-45. he's at 52 now, above the 50% mark, which is so key. and reuters poll just came out with president obama ahe...