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5:00 p.m. eastern time. that's the cutoff for the national polls that will determine who gets to be be on that stage. this morning four new polls are out, a cbs news poll shows donald trump with an 11 point lead with jeb bush second and wisconsin governor scott walker third. a bloomberg politics poll has a similar outcome. trump up by 11 points. and a fox news poll also shows trump with an 11 point lead over jeb bush followed by scott walker. finally a monday mouth university poll has trump up would 14 points. on "morning joe","joe," donald trump about why he thinks he's surging. >> i think pe...

Disapprove odd the president's job performance. the president's approval rating is higher than george w. bush's was during the same point at his presidency but lower than bill clinton's. about the same as ronald reagan. speaking of polls, donald trump has a sizable lead over rival jeb bush in the first primary state of new hampshire. the monmouth university poll has trump leading with 24% while jeb bush placed second with 12%. the first of eight, by the way, right around the corner. they's still only a set number of slots with a prime time debate performance as you can see, everyone from newly...

All as a statistical tie if not an outright tie. nbc/"wall street journal" gives the president a one-point advantage. that's a tie. the same poll taken eight years ago, strikingly similar. and george w. bush held the same lead over senator john kerry the day before the election in our nbc/"wall street journal" poll, that's in 2004. in battle ground states including colorado, ohio, virginia, florida, new hampshire, president obama has a slight advantage. he leads mitt romney by 4 points. again, that is within the margin of error. there's good news for president obama on his handing of hurricane...

The small number of turnout, the small number of undecided voters, that means that 1980 is not going to happen. there's not going to be a massive wave. but if you look at these polls, even if there is a one or two-point shift romney's direction, we could be up very late into the night. >> the problem is early voting as well that we might want to get to. but first, back to the battlegrounds where the election will be decided. in iowa, the latest "des moines register" poll has president obama with a five-point lead over mitt romney. florida -- >> really quickly, let's talk iowa very quickly. ste...

>> that's an interesting symbol to get back to at one point. but back to the battlegrounds where tomorrow's election will ultimately be decided, iowa, the latest "des moines register" poll has president obama with a fi five-point lead over mitt romney. >> go back to that one for one second. >> go back to iowa. >> the iowa polls, of all the polls that are out, this is the only poll where romney people have shown despair. they don't believe a lot of the ohio polls. this one really surprised them this weekend. they really believed they were going to win iowa. i don't know if they believe that at ...