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Confident as sam is. that s because you can t do calculations with what was it? 72 quadrillion possibilities. i think he can. when you look at the there are about six of these models, nate silver has one, the new york times has one, huffington post, and when you build these models, you put all those inputs in the poll from the polls but then there are two sort of knobs that you can turn that affect how high your confidence is. one is how accurate do you think the polling is, and if you think there s a significant risk of a systematic polling error, which is to say that polls didn t find enough republicans or democrats. then you have to say you reless confident and then the other question is, how correlated are the different states so if hillary underperforms in pennsylvania, will she also tend to do worse in michigan and arizona and every where else or are they reasonably independent from each other? nate silver says there s only about a 65% chance that hillary will win, ....

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