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Analyst. we do think this is connected to all things. so let's go back to our poll. two members of our bipartisan polling team, fred yang and republican pollster michael roberts of public opinion strategy. so michael, let's remind people of these numbers again. favor overall, 25%, oppose 57%. with a fairly high no opinion, i want to ask both of you this. what do we make of the nearly 20% who wouldn't give an opinion on this? mike, i'm going to start with you, then fred. >> i think you've got a 2-day-old policy from a member of one person that's running for office from the republican side. i'...

All of this to say, do not dismiss dr. carson in this race. joining me now, two member of our bipartisan polling team. bill, let me start with you, it's your party. ben carson, look, i've had plenty of people throw herman cain at me, rudy guiliani at me, hillary clinton polls at me. meaning each one of those polls, our poll at this point in time, had people that ended up not winning the nomination on top. should we just toss carson aside, or is this more real than we might think? >> well, first, i don't think any pollster would tell you we know that carson is going to do well in iowa, new hamp...

Approval numbers are up and doing well and welcomed by the party and outside, i think she would be wise to embrace it still. >> lawrence, very quickly. it's an easy way to look at this. one half of our "wall street journal" polling team will say presidential job approval might be the single most important number even in '16. i can tell you if it is 48 or above for obama, advantage democrats. 45 to 48 range it is a coin flip election and under 45 advantage republicans. that's the bottom line. i think that as long as it goes to that number, if the president is sitting where he is at. 47 to 52, t...

Would be wise to embrace it still. >> lawrence, very quickly. it's an easy way to look at this. one half of our "wall street journal" polling team will say presidential job approval might be the single most important number even in '16. i can tell you if it is 48 or above for obama, advantage democrats. 45 to 48 range it is a coin flip election and under 45 advantage republicans. that's the bottom line. i think that as long as it goes to that number if the president is sitting where he is at. 47 to 52, that range you are going to see as important surrogate for the democrats in 2014. >> we will...

Straw poll. and ipo participating%deñ. some people like to say the straw poll doesn't matter, why are we doing it? i'm here to tell you we douz because we believe you matter. at cpac, your voice is heard and your opinions count. i'd also like a give a special thanks to kevin quinnly and nate land, part of our polling team in this effort. before we get to the winners of the presidential straw poll, we'd like to review with you some of the demographics from the poll and in keeping with the spirit and the content of the 2015 cpac, we'd like to show you the responses to the substantive issuesw al...