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That with the satisfaction with trump is enough to get him into the senate. >> one of the five races where the margin is within two points. democrats still have an outside shot of taking over the senate but if they are going to do it, dean heller up by one point, real clear average -- the union machine in the vita does a great job of getting out the vote and you have a lot of democrats over perform in the on the nevada. >> bret: thank you, panel. pulling together in pittsburgh.

Actually doing. they played a major role in everything in this investigation. now we know this links back to london. not to get everybody confused but that's where papadopoulos is and that's where he met with the informant and that's where he met with the australian ambassador. so this is coming full circle. if the big picture, what do you think it means for the president? it used to be bad. now i get the sense that it's not all bad for the president. >> look what's happening, right? the president's job approval rating is going up. real clear average has it today something around 47, 48%. abou...

Cnn grossly underestimated the percentage of independents that are going to be here, the average puts this into perspective. these polls give us a tense of precision which they do not have. >> and reading polls, real clear average. this race is too close to call. how does romney strategicly close the deal in your opinion? >> i think by doing two things. at the convention he dialed up the explanation of who he was. mitt romney and ann romney both did that. and now, mitt romney and paul ryan keeping some of the personal information coming putting focus on the plan to help. more american energy, ...

He's going to do very well. >> he set the bar low. >> yeah. he's saying, you know what? i know people have seen me at the top of the polls but right now, i'm thinking i'll be lucky if i finish in the top three or four. >> good move. you set the bar low. don't set high expectations there. >> too late, he already locked down the nomination two weeks ago but he says i never said i'd come in first in iowa. there was a period when i was the frontrunner but frankly if we get $7 to $9 million of ads, most of them false and the sheer weight of negativity has a real impact so he currently in almost eve...

Paul says he is optimistic he will pick up some votes from the supporters of herman cain as well. this is how it is all playing out. cain will have a voice in takes place not only in iowa but all the way down who get gets the presidential nomination for the republican party. bill: we shall play on. kelly wright in washington. martha? martha: it has been a bumpy night for the republican field throughout this process a host of names kind of taken their chance at the top spot and have fallen from grace. take a look at this graphic. it is revealing all how of this worked. compiled by real clear av...