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Or for that matter, the marine corps? dylan evans is a founder of projection point and the author of "risk intelligence, how to live with uncertainty." we were talking before this broadly in anything we do, there is a planning period, there is a briefing period of who you're going to do it with, there is an execution period, and sometimes there's a debriefing, and sometimes there is before planning, mission analysis. what you're saying is, and really what we're saying in the oakland a's example or the army, they do a lot of mission analysis which helps them make better judgments later when the...

Want to know the truth. they don't want to be pate ro niz -- patronized by a doctor who thinks he knows it all. they want to say, doctor, what are the chances? and if he hem-haws around, that's not good. they want to know the truth. >> to use the example that peter was talking about, for risk intelligence so you can do a good job before you go with x prize or whatever else, you make better decisions. >> exactly. you'll take this information and weigh it in your mind, and you'll be able to say, i've got a pretty good idea whether it's likely or not. >> then if the experiment fails, you can say,...

>> doctors are one thing. when i began to do this re research, i was teaching in a medical school. i was teaching medical students how to make decisions. >> how to do risk intelligence. >> how to do risk intelligence. one of the scary things i discovered was when they thought they knew what diagnosis was right, they were way too confident, and for example, if there was a 5% chance that someone had pneumonia, they would say it was like a 90% chance, and as a result they were recommending more tests than were necessary, they were causing their patients too much needless worry, and they were wast...

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