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Phillip bump. phillip, when you look at the numbers, the graphs that david is sharing that doesn't look good for donald trump right now in those states. is this a real indicator of whose going to win? >> it is hard to say. your gut says if more republicans are turning in -- >> -- >> exactly. north carolina in particular, is a state that obama won 2008. romney 2012. a state where hillary clinton leads right now. arizona we didn't see the arizona numbers. arizona has seen a similarly big shift towards democrats in early votes as well. arizona state is now in play even though it's been red for so...

In 2008 it happened after sarah palin, then democrats gained the upper hand and obama pulled out a pretty sizable win. in 2012 it happened in october after which romney was seen as the consensus winner. that race remained pretty close into the final stretch with obama holding a consistent edge. we saw tightening a few weeks ago when clinton had her worst week of polling after she referred to trump supporters as, quote, in a basket of deplorables and fell ill at the 9/11 memorial service. the question now will the basic fundamentals reassert themselves and does that mean democrats are on a glid...

We saw tightening a few weeks ago when clinton had her worst week of polling after she referred to trump supporters as, quote, in a basket of deplorables and fell ill at the 9/11 memorial service. the question now will the basic fundamentals reassert themselves and does that mean democrats are on a glide path to victory? joining me now a former national press secretary for the democratic national committee and former deputy campaign manager for romney 2012 and an msnbc contributor. i remember listening to david pluth give interviews and he was unflappable. his whole thing was you guys are all ...

Be atop the polls? >> i hope what people saw last night is i can win this job and i can do this job. >> so we have a lot to talk about starting the hour. rachel maddow, host of "the rachel maddow show," michelle bernard and former romney 2012 chief strategist. rachel, i'll start with you. great to see you in person here. >> yeah, thanks. >> after the debate. i stayed up till 1:00 a.m. i was addicted to watching. >> everybody is saying it was three hours. no, it was five hours because there were actually 16 people -- 15 people debating. >> i started at like 6:00. i think till 1:00. >> the kids ...

Dangerous development. russia's new build up with syria and we're going to be talking to state department spokesman john kirby and get his thoughts on what the united states is doing to help the unprecedented number of refugees pouring into europe. lester holt there today and getting some emotional stories. >> plus the chief strategist for romney 2012, stewart stevens weighs in on the gop field. "the washington post" on hillary clinton's rapid erosion of support among women. >> we'll show hillary. hillary was speaking yesterday. >> we'll show that. plus show some of these new numbers. >> you'r...