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Republican than santorum is. think about mark kirk. he's more the mold of romney. they tend to be more moderate republicans who do well in illinois. think about the history of illinois governors has not been the history of far right governors. i think romney is more suited to the state than santorum. doesn't mean santorum can't win. you will be more surprised if he wins than romney. >> there's a premise if santorum got romney one-on-one, he had a chance to beat him. the premise gingrich's withdrawal or collapse would help santorum. it wasn't obviously true. there are a lot of gingrich voters. ...

The math could be on the side? >> the math has been impossible for him for a long time to get to. he must knock romney out. the only way to knock him out is beat him in states where you are not expected to win. the southern states that don't do that for him. he needs a win in illinois or wisconsin. i think to weaken romney. again, romney showed strength in so many big states now and no desire to quit. doing well in fund raising. it's difficult to see the path now barring a win tonight for him where he could start to make the argument again. the one-on-one. if he has one, he's got to produce. >...

Parenthesis. romney's are going to be listed first. this should be a big night of delegates for romney. he should get of the 54, i would be shocked if he didn't get 35 of them. >> we heard this could be tight. we heard this could be tight. >> it could be a popular vote. it wouldn't surprise me. we have seen, look at where illinois is. there's a large enough urban center where romney has been doing well. if you just throw the demographics of all the previous elections, you assume romney wins eight to ten points on this one. chicago area, he should dominate. santorum down state. i think the ques...

Because he's chasing a guy -- i'm not saying he's a hero but why go home? he's chasing romney, a guy nobody can get excited about. anything can happen. am i wrong? >> he's chasing a guy that's got more votes than he does in the party. it's hard to see a path for him. he can shine in tampa. >> it was hard to see a path for santorum sitting at 2% in iowa. >> i was trying to imagine the race where you are chasing thatcher and reagan. >> that would be awesome. >> by the way, you know, i love reagan. thatcher would chop him up into little pieces. >> mike allen, thanks. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ ...

Paul? can they be any kind of wild card in there to throw anything more toward santorum? i mean, is it still impossible, if they really decide, okay, we are going to get behind santorum? >> well, first of all, paul seems to be working in cahoots with romney. we saw it play out in the missouri caucuses. they have a delegate strategy together. there's a rule in the rnc. this is interesting. if you don't win a plurality of five states you can't be on the vote. you control your delegates but your name is not on the ballot. gingrich won two states and delegate wise, paul has yet to win a single sta...