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Across the finish line we've put utah and arizona in the toss-up category. mitt romney won utah with 72% of the vote four years ago. he won arizona by ten points four years ago. these two ruby red states are now toss-ups tells us just about all you need to know about donald trump's challenge as we try to go to the finish line. these are the most surprising changes in the electoral map. the most significant, though, we now lean florida blue. likely democratic. 29 electoral votes. donald trump cannot win the white house without those 29 electoral votes. even if donald trump won all of the golds ...

North carolina or both and donald trump could not be president. if you just do that, look at that map, just do that, defend the light blue states, try to get one or two of those toss-up states, boom, you're safe, you're president. if you're the campaign manager, that's your first priority. number one, get through the debate tomorrow night and then see what the polling looks like. >> seems logical, a win is a win. then why is -- what is the argument then for running up the score? running up the score, the electoral vote score, and where do you focus? >> to send a double whammy message. rigged e...

Be a rocket scientist or speaker of the house to understand that this is all heading in a really bad direction for donald trump. and what he is doing and has been doing, quite frankly, is giving members permission to go their own way. because he doesn't want to lose control of the house, nor does he want republicans to lose control of the entire congress. and he got a little bit of push back on that from congressman in ruby red states, who feel like it's really in their benefit to be on the trump train, but i think it was very clear from what he was saying, it was like, each man for himself, h...

I want to get his thoughts after. also with us, republican consultant debate coach and communications strategist, bret o'donnell, and our chief political analyst, gloria borger. gloria, with paul ryan saying what he has said, is this just a sign he thinks it's impossible for donald trump to become president? >> i think it is. i think he's taking a look at the polls and you don't have to be a rocket scientist or speaker of the house to understand that this is all heading in a really bad direction for donald trump. and what he is doing and has been doing, quite frankly, is giving members permiss...

I don't think that's a spoiler alert. but the democrats who are running, in georgia and kansas, they've flipped defeats and house races last november by 20 to 30% to coming within 6 or 7 in kansas, and maybe even win anything georgia. >> tucker: can i say, but neither of them have won. >> one of them -- j >> tucker: i didn't want to go there, but the democratic lost in kansas. >> we're giving is trend trophies. if you look in the ruby red states, and you went from being down 30 to down 7, that shows progress. especially in an off year election, where democrats don't turn out in big numbers typ...