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Really tight race, and could end up winning while josh shapiro, a democrat, looks like he's on his way to becoming the next governor of pennsylvania. >> i add a third state to that possibly, different reasons, different dynamic, arizona, kari lake who has echoed everything donald trump has said about the 2020 election and was thought, i think, by conventional wisdom to be the weakest candidate republicans could put up for governor, leading in the poll, and the democratic mark kelly continues to lead. there's the potential of a ticket split of a different type out in arizona this year. >> you k...

Hottest races, closest races in the country. one's a governor's race, one's a senate race. do they both go the same direction? if they don't, who is the split ticket voter? is there a gillum/scott voter, a nelson/desantis voter? does that exist? >> what a great question. i'll start out with a following. i think if gillum wasn't surprising for democrats, i would be sitting here today telling you bill nelson would lose. >> interesting. >> i think nelson/scott race is a toss-up because gillum is on the ballot. >> so that indicates that you're sort of saying there's probably going to be a gillum/s...

Right now saying "way to go", and maybe we'll hear some of that same material on the trail tomorrow from trump. we have left the planet of rational competent campaign, and we've got a guy slashing away as his world collapses, so it's going to be kind of pathetically interesting to watch this for the next two weeks, and i just hope the damage to the rest of the county is somewhat contained by those who want to hedge on ticket splitting. >> what about the general phenomenon of the bigger the presidential vote for a candidate the bigger the down ballot vote is for that same party? >>na that's the...

The county is somewhat contained by those who want to hedge on ticket splitting. >> what about the general phenomenon of the bigger the presidential vote for a candidate the bigger the down ballot vote is for that same party? >>na nn nn nna that's the histo thought. there's a newer theory which we haven't tested yet, in this age of cable television and the internet, people have so much more information it's easier to ticket split. they know the republican logo is going from that to the candidate. or where we have the classic situation where trouble goes right down the line and costs us control...

Donald trump, you may want to stay home but come out and vote for the senate candidate. >> looking at some polling in ohio where portman seems to be safe. 20% of clinton voters in ohio plan to vote for portman. >> it's amazing. we've been talking about this for several years about ticket splitters and we have strategists that say voters don't ticket split. it happens. voters are showing us how smart and tuned in they are in this election, this idea of republican senate as a check on clinton is probably the strongest argument that republicans have for the next two weeks. >> probably the only ar...