There is significant concern, and rightfully so, about the outlook for fuel prices and security of supply following Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine in late February. No country is immune from the fallout and South Africa, which is a crude and fuel importer, is expected to feel the effects initially in higher prices, largely because imported fuel inflation will spill over into domestic inflation. Likewise, food inflation will probably also rise, owing to the fact that Russia and Ukraine collectively account for 30% of global wheat exports.