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Pneumonia. there was this big friday-saturday blow-up when hillary had a pneumonia. bout. the polls went south for five days and it was a major interruption. we've seen that same thing. some early polls, after this comey shocker, people like my barber told me the fbi had reopened this investigation, when that false information got out, i think it interrupted the race. i think we're back to where the race was now. i think she clearly has the momentum, as you talked about the early voting states in nevada and florida. 40 million votes are already cast and she's ahead in those. so i think the rac...

States when you compare what the numbers say in early votes versus a model or polling would predict about the composition of the electorate. spell it out for us. >> absolutely. we're seeing far greater early voting numbers than most of the mainstream models are predicting latinos, in particular, in florida and also in nevada are overperforming there's also the data polling from dan smith at the university of florida put out that 30% of the latinos were either new registrants or no voting history. these are people voting at high rates, very high rates compared to what we saw in 2012 and they ar...

Screw the data up. >> sure. >> we know partisan affiliation, we know some demographic information but what we don't know, the campaigns know, the clinton campaign, the propensity. you want to them to vote early as opposed to to moving a person who is definitely going to vote on election day is moving it up two weeks. >> exactly. a vote on election day is worth the same amount as a vote cast early. there seems to be a lot of low-propensity voters voting early. here's the question for hillary clinton. >> is it merely that we're getting more latinos into the electorate while african-americans are...

It's possible they pull from the same pool of people. who usually vote on election day. in other words, they are voting early instead of adding to the electorate. early suggestions suggest that's not the case. on thursday alone, 82.5% of hispanic early votes were considered low-propensity voters. that's literally nuts, in his words. those are people who may have voted in the last presidential elections, who may have been excluded from recent polls of likely florida voters. joining me now, co-founder of the research and polling firm and professor at ucla. senior political writer and analyst for...