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>> this is before the debate. we had a likely voter model that had the president only up 3%. the question is why. what is going on that has republicans doing better and becoming more likely voters? it's simply an enthusiasm gap. and we're seeing it across the board. look in the first one. 79% of republicans call themselves extremely interested in this election. on a scale of one to 10, they say they are a 9 or 10 on interest in the election. 73% of democrats. look at four years ago. it was a 13-point gap in favor of the democrats. let me go through some various voting groups. this is an import...

Our nbc/"wall street journal" poll. we had a likely voter model that had the president only up three at the time, 49-46. the question is why, what is going on that has republicans doing better and becoming more likely voters? it's simply an enthusiasm gap that we're see being across the board. >> 79% of republicans call themselves extremely interested in this election on a scale of 1-10, that meanser that a 9 or a 10 on interest in the election, 73% are democrats. four years ago it was a 13-point gain in favor of the democrats. >> voting groups, this is an important group. seniors are an impor...

Straight talk and authenticity, not what's going to happen in some other state or their state. what they're looking for is a projection that is of the true self, the true candidate. >> yep. the truth. chuck todd, give us a sense of your takeaway of the national polls. >> reporter: well, what you see is -- >> right track/wrong track and the trends we're seeing in this poll. >> reporter: internally, when you look at everything of the poll other than the head-to-head, you sit there and say, wow, mitt romney's got problems. the right track is moving, 57% say the economy is recovering. highest righ...

Close. it's a tossup. i don't know who is going to win. every other poll is showing the same thing, but the only exception has been in that immediate post-convention period when the president got a great bounce and we showed that bounce as well. megyn: we did a segment that showed many in the media went nuts when the nbc-maris poll showed the president up 5-7 points. then we see a hit piece in the washington post on how rasmussen is unreliable and unreliable and attacking you. that's why we mentioned the gallup poll which is of registered voters which shows it's the race is within 1 or 2 point...

Romney in this category. when asking who is better prepared to lead the country in four years, obama leads romney, 47 to 36. who would look out for the middle points? obama stands at 53 to lowly 34%. joining me is chuck todd and chris, msnbc political analyst. i guess my first question to chuck, and also to chris later, is how do we know who's going to vote? who's likely? >> i mean, i can tell you how we measure likely voters. that is simply we asked them a series of questions, a couple thing. number one, how interested are you in the election on a scale of one to ten. our likely voter model w...