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That wednesday night was a real turning point. so those allegations i think have really given a lot of credence to what's going on here with what trump said in that tape. 62% of voters in our poll said that the allegations that these women are saying about donald trump are probably true, and i think that a lot of this has to go with a swing now that we're seeing in enthusiasm because of that. that the likely voter models are now starting to swing from helping donald trump to helping hillary clinton. >> interesting. david, you've studied these polls as we mentioned earlier. the polls were taken...

The 2% difference. the president at 49% in all three of these states. this after a poll yesterday had him five points ahead in ohio. is there any way for mitt romney to overcome this fire wall that seems to be pretty firm in president obama's favor? >> yes, if the polls are wrong. most of these polls are likely voter models. the polls are making the assumption with the turnout, what the shape of the electorate is going to be on election day. if that model is wrong, you have a major problem. you could have more republicans turning out and fewer democrats turning out. if the demographics are wro...

Seeing and it's in the weed but when you look at registered voter models and likely registered to models obama leads and likely voters still nidal hasan the enthusiasm for republicans they have the edge. the president trying to get people to the polls, using early voting to get them out there and get going and maybe even try to get back some of those suburban women they may have lost after that first debate. >> the romney strategy this speech called a major economic speech. no major different news in it. nonetheless beginning the homestretch here. >> he think he's gotten a fresh look from a lo...

The gallup polls as opposed to the state polls really showing a different picture and there's a lot of reasons for that. obviously different likely voter models. our surveys have more likely voters in these individual states than the national polls have for the entire country. so these are a big sample we're looking at and that's how we can drill down and tell folks what's really going on. we don't tell voters how to vote. they're not waiting for the next gallup poll, we're picking up what they are telling us how they are acting and thinking. >> i want to pick up on a couple of things here. th...

Contest is much closer than our poll shows. the x-factor may very well be early voting. 34% of likely voters say they have cast their ballots and the president is winning those 67% to 32%. among election day voters romney ahead. now republicans pointed out that 285 ohio early and absentee ballots have been received in iowa which is only 19% of the 2008 electorate in the state, less than 34% in our poll. 363,000 have been requested in the state, 38% of the 2008 electorate. closer to our 34%. a little transparency. voter models overstating early voters or are democrats more apt to say they press...