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How Trump could impact the GOP's 2022 prospects


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However unpopular Trump may be, his dominance of the GOP will likely not upset the Republican Party’s chances of winning back the House — and maybe even the Senate — in the 2022 midterms. History shows that Democrats face an uphill battle in maintaining their narrow congressional majorities.
Midterm elections are largely a referendum on the party in power — in this case, the Democratic Party. According to a 2018 Gallup analysis of midterm seat gains/losses from 2018, in midterm elections since 1946, the average loss for the president's party is 25 U.S. House seats, and presidents with an approval below 50 percent see their party lose an average of 37 House seats. 

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Game of votes — why budget reconciliation isn't the answer Democrats need


The U.S. has a long history of voter suppression and gerrymandering. However, better technology allows politicians to bypass voters more precisely than ever before. After the 2012 redistricting, House Republicans won 54 percent of the seats while receiving only 45 percent of the popular votes. The problem can be even worse in some states. For example, in 2018, Democratic State Assembly candidates in Wisconsin received 53 percent of the votes but won only 36 percent of the seats. This year’s Congressional redistricting may look more like Wisconsin’s imbalance as gerrymandering becomes ever more precise.
This weakening of democracy has not gone unnoticed. In early March, the House passed the For the People Act, which limits gerrymandering. However, the Senate version, S1, will not pass as long as the filibuster, requiring 60 votes to pass a bill, remains in place. Without S1, Republicans can use extreme gerrymandering to take control of the House even if only a small minority of voters support them. Democrats cannot respond in-kind because many Democratic states already have nonpartisan redistricting commissions. 

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Trump: The key to Republican success is more Trumpism, populist policies


Staking his claim to the Republican Party, former President Donald Trump is casting his populist policies and attack-dog politics as the key to future GOP success.
In a closed-door speech Saturday night to donors at his Mar-a-Lago resort, Trump also reinforced his commitment to the party, according to prepared remarks obtained by The Associated Press.
His appearance came as Republican officials are trying to play down an internal feud over Trump's role in the party, his commitment to GOP fundraising and his plans for 2024.
While Trump's advisers report he will emphasize party unity, he rarely sticks to script.
The key to this triumphant future will be to build on the gains our amazing movement has made over the past four years, Trump told hundreds of leading Republican donors, according to the prepared remarks.

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The filibuster can be conquered: I know — I helped do it


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It’s now conventional wisdom that the filibuster — or just the threat of a filibuster — will likely raise havoc with the core of President Biden
There is one shining example, however, when the filibuster — against all odds — was conquered.
The historic Civil Right Act of 1964 never would have survived in its final form unless the bipartisan pro-civil rights coalition found a way to defeat Sen. Richard Russell (D-Ga.) and his band of 18 Southern Democrats. More to the point, what happened then — 57 years ago — provides a useful roadmap for today.
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A few basic facts:
All the smart money in 1964 said the filibuster, led by Sen. Russell, could not be defeated. The reasons were obvious. In 1964, Senate Rule XXII provided that 67 senators were needed to limit debate. Optimistic nose-counts indicated the bipartisan pro-civil rights forces lacked 12 “critical” votes to reach 67.

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Will Ocasio-Cortez challenge Biden or Harris in 2024?


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At the time, Ocasio-Cortez tweeted: “It may be shocking to some, but being someone’s daughter actually isn’t a career qualification …”
Morgan’s reply: “Could be worse … Ivanka could have been a bartender 18 months ago.”
Ocasio-Cortez was, indeed, a bartender 18 months earlier — before she defied all the odds and shook the pillars of politics by defeating ten-term, entrenched-establishment liberal Rep. Joe Crowley
That is beyond impressive, by anyone’s standards. No one handed her that victory; nepotism and family wealth played no role in it. Quite simply, she earned it.
In many ways — like her or not — Ocasio-Cortez is the personification of the American Dream. It is one of the reasons why she has become a political and cultural force in such an incredibly short time. Tens of millions of Americans see their lives and their daily struggles reflected back at them from her eyes.

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GOP Argues Government Shouldn't Be Deciding Which Bridges Succeed Or Fail

WASHINGTON—In response to the $2 trillion infrastructure plan unveiled by President Joe Biden this week, Republicans on Capitol Hill spent much of Thursday arguing that it shouldn’t be up to the government to decide whether bridges succeed or fail. “We here in Washington should not be in the business of picking winners and losers when it comes to which highway overpasses maintain their integrity and which collapse, killing dozens of innocent motorists,” said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who accused the White House proposal of “shameless favoritism,” suggesting it would use taxpayer dollars to exert control over whether a span of roadway buckled, fell into a river, and was swept away by the current. “What kind of message does it send to the American people when we prop up bridges that are failing at the expense of bridges that are working? There’s a real moral hazard here. At the end of the day, it should be left to the free market to determine which suspension cables snap and which ones remain intact.” McConnell went on to warn that if his Senate colleagues were not careful, the tyranny of routine government inspections and maintenance could spread to the nation’s interstates and airports.

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NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo to Face Impeachment Investigation


Photo: Seth Wenig (Getty Images)
The New York state assembly speaker has authorized an impeachment investigation into embattled New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who knows good and damn well he should step his ass down.
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According to CBS News “New York State Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie said he authorized the Assembly Judiciary Committee to begin the investigation, which he said will have the power to interview witnesses and subpoena documents.”
So for those of you keeping score, that means that there will be two independent investigations into sexual misconduct claims by six women, including one by the New York Attorney General’s Office. The impeachment investigation comes after 59 lawmakers all signed a letter calling for Cuomo to step down.

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Progressives' majority delusions politically costly


This limited, at best, support for progressive policies should not be a shock. After all, the Democratic electorate decisively rejected progressivism in the 2020 presidential primaries. Joe Biden
What holds together Democratic voters is not progressive ideology; it’s hatred for Trump. According to the Republican-oriented polling firm Echelon Insights, Democratic voters rate danger from “Trump supporters” as a concern (82 percent) second only to the coronavirus (87 percent).
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Yet, progressives like Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
West Virginia troubles
If Manchin were to switch parties, like Jeffords did in 2001, there is nothing the jilted former majority could do about it — just like in 2001. When it comes to electing a Democrat to the U.S. Senate, in West Virginia there’s Manchin and nobody else. West Virginia is now a decisively Republican state, having elected Sen. Shelley Capito Moore by a large majority and plumping for Trump by nearly 40 points.

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