The president of emirates tells us how hes plotting a course for clearer skies after a tough 18 months for the middle easts Biggest Airline. And staying with airlines, the boss of easyjet says hell cut his salary to match that of his predecessor. So today we want to know, would you reduce your pay to the same as a colleague . Let us know. Just use the hashtag bbcbizlive. Hello and welcome to business live. The uk economy will grow more slowly outside the European Union no matter what deal is struck with brussels, a leaked government document suggests. The Buzzfeed News website reports that whitehall analysis found that growth over the next 15 years could be up to 8 lower than if the uk stayed in the eu. Government sources say the uk will not be worse off, and its preferred bespoke trade deal option was not analysed in these figures. Were joined by our economics correspondent andrew walker. What correspondent andrew walker. Does it tell us, if ar well, what does it tell us, if anything . Well, its looking at how the economy would perform under three different scenarios compared with what we currently have. So its not making a specific forecast that the economy will grow by so much over the next 15 years, but that it will be less than it would otherwise have been by a certain amount. Those figures are 8 less cumulative Economic Growth if we were to go out on what is sometimes called wto terms, so with no trade deal, 5 less if it were a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with the European Union, 2 less if the uk were to remain in the Single Market but having left the customs union. It must be said that inevitably, when you are looking over Economic Projections over such a long period, there is an enormous amount of uncertainty associated with them and of course, brexit supporting mps have been quick to point that out. Iain duncan smith has said this is a highly speculative assessment which needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. He suggests that it has been lea ked salt. He suggests that it has been leaked deliberately to feed into the political debate. Downing street says their preferred option has not been included in this analysis, but people watching this will say, we we re people watching this will say, we were told that there was no analysis, the downing street wasnt going to do an analysis, and actually, there is. Whats going on . The analysis argument was about the suggestion that there were detailed impact assessments, sector by sector, in what was called painful detail. From what we have seen so farfrom detail. From what we have seen so far from these buzzfeed links, detail. From what we have seen so farfrom these buzzfeed links, this doesnt go into that kind of level, it is broadbrush assessments of the overall impact. It would be very surprising if the government were not having at least some sort of broad indication of what we could expect under the various scenarios. Your point about the timing is interesting as well, Iain Duncan Smith pointing out that there are said to be quite a bit of turmoil within the conservative party at senior levels with regards to brexit, how it is being handled, where the negotiation process is being headed, hard, soft and whatever is in between. Mr duncan smith is not saying anything explicit about who he thinks is responsible for the leak, but some sources are saying responsible for the leak, but some sources are saying that the imprecations of this are favourable to the Philip Hammond view of the world, the chancellors view, that the uk economy would be better off maintaining its position as close as possible to the eu and the Single Market. And whilst we will look at these forecasts and what they mean for business, one of the big retailers in the uk this morning, house of fraser, has been saying, we wa nt house of fraser, has been saying, we want a definite signal about what kind of brexit deal we are having. Business wants to know what the deal will be and then they can plan. Yes, indeed. And the fact that we have this analysis looking at such a wide range of potential outcomes is indicative of the fact that they will probably have to live with a certain amount of uncertainty for some time yet. It perhaps would have been useful if this analysis had contained some assessment of what the governments preferred option is. This idea of the comprehensive trade deal to include financial trade deal to include financial trade services, one assumes it would come somewhere between the two figures of 2 for being in the Single Market and the 5 for a comprehensive trade deal. That is what the government is probably aiming at, but brexit supporters of course reckon they can do better than these figures suggest. We will keep an eye on it. Lets take a look at some of the other stories making the news. Us soft drink maker dr pepper snapple is to merge with Coffee Company keurig Green Mountain. The deal will bring together well known brands such as dr pepper, orangina, schweppes and sunkist with Green Mountain coffee roasters. Keurig dr pepper will have a combined annual revenue of 11bn. Oil giant exxon mobil plans to spend 50 billion in the us over the next five years. More than 35 billion of that is for new projects. Exxons chief executive said the investment is partly due to cuts to the Corporate Tax rate. Nissan car sales hit a record high in 2017. It helped the wider group to become the best selling car manufacturer of the year. Total sales came in at 10. 6 million light vehicles. The group beat volkwagen and toyota, which came in second and third for the year respectively. Not a day goes by without a headline about so called cryptocurrencies. Today, a ban on anonymous Cryptocurrency Transactions comes this is all in the name of transparency. The south korean government wants to cut down on any illegal activity that could be going on because of the anonymous nature of Cryptocurrency Transactions. You may remember the wannacry attack last year that affected hundreds of thousands of people in 150 countries and asked for ransom to be paid in bitcoin. That kind of negative publicity has helped to shape opinion. Earlier injanuary, two exchanges bithumb and coin one were raided by south korean tax authorities over concerns that not everyone is paying theirfair share. And just last week in japan, one of the worlds biggest cryptocurrency heists took place. Simon taylor is the co founder of 11fs, a consultancy which advises banks and governments on the future of money. So ben was talking about some of the stories that have come into the limelight, a lot of it painting a picture that this is a murky world of crypto currencies. South korea has taken steps to regulate it. What are your thoughts about what south korea has decided to do . It is sensible. The big concern around crypto currencies has been the unlimited. Governments are rightly concerned about fraud and terrorist financing, scary things. People could lose a lot of money. People are losing a lot of money. People have taken out debt and mortgages to buy cryptocurrencies, which are highly volatile. So the need for transparency and protection makes sense, but there is a balance here that needs to be struck, because if we overregulate, with potentially push this further underground. But why do the transactions need to be anonymous anyway . Because all of the transactions are out in public, they are transparent. But we dont know who is making the payments. Are transparent. But we dont know who is making the paymentsm are transparent. But we dont know who is making the payments. If you bought a coffee this morning on the way in and you got the train you get every day, i only need two or three transactions to figure out who you are. So its easy for me to break your privacy if all of your transactions are in the public, especially if your name is attached. So there was a concern early on with the technology that we wanted to maintain privacy, but in doing so you also create a problem about, what of that person commits a crime. So now we have exchanges where you would take your pounds or dollars or euros and exchange those for your crypto currencies. They have your passport and your identity. So the south koreans have that, if you have this identity information, if that person commits a crime, you should share that information with the regulators and you shouldnt allow somebody to be anonymous in the first place. Isnt the entire point of cryptocurrencies the fact that they are not regulated by the old institutions, the banks with regulators and shareholders, and the fa ct regulators and shareholders, and the fact that they are not constrained by that . So saying you have to link it with a bank account defeats the object. The key is balance. How we balanced the possibility of not being part of the system and creating efficiency and transparency, which are the benefits of the technology, with the opportunities that if you bring in too much control, you may push this underground . Thank you for coming in. Cryptocurrencies and brexit sums us in. Cryptocurrencies and brexit sums us up. They are a daily event. Lets move us up. They are a daily event. Lets m ove o nto us up. They are a daily event. Lets move onto Something Else that is a regular event on this show, ride sharing apps. Ola indias Ride Sharing Company is moving in to the Australian Market in its First International venture. The australian taxi app industry is currently dominated by uber, olas biggest rival in india. Devina gupta is live in delhi and can tell us more. It is such a competitive market and they are all vying for a share. Who is going to win . Well, we are looking at a tough competition and it has been a tough market in india as well with ola and uber competing. Ola hopes to expand in australia, which is ubers turf. We have also seen that ola is now inviting private hire Vehicle Owners to register with them. It brings in experience of being in the indian market, where it is known for experimenting with electric vehicles and also with a system called ola play, which is on wide entertainment and popular with its 200 million plus customers in india. Interestingly, both ola and uber have a single investor in the japanese softbank and they would be competing in conditions which are quite different from india. But in australia, there would be more competition for ola from european taxi apps as well and the home grown australian competition as well. We have now got Remi Olu Pitan with australian competition as well. We have i thegot Remi Olu Pitan with f 7 7 australian competition as well. We have i thegot f manageritan with f 7 7 we have cpl age l llll ll lll all. l l lllll cpl all llllll ll ll. Llll llll lllll mentioned cpl all llllll l. Ll. Llll llll lllll mentioned the cpl all llllll ll ll. Llll llll lllll mentioned the fed. The last cpl all llllll ll ll. Llll llll lllll mention presided i. The last cpl all llllll ll ll. Llll llll lllll mention presided overe last cpl all llllll ll ll. Llll llll lllll mention presided over by|st cpl all llllll ll ll. Llll llll lllll mention presided over byjanet meeting was presided over by janet yellen, the fed chair. What are your expectations . We expect the fed to say that the economy is doing ok and that the path of tightening Interest Rates will be maintained. Janet yellens term has been successful. And as hankfier. L. L. L. L yellens term has been successful. And as hang . . . We l. L. L first uninni 5g trump him announce some form of spending. Say that. Tax cut if and lll; so we i leel; so we expect a increasing wages. So we expect a positive story. The only caution is whether he announces anything around trade policy, any protectionist agenda. In the meantime, stock markets are agenda. In the meantime, stock markets a re pretty agenda. In the meantime, stock markets are pretty negative. We had a torrid time on wall street. Asia was all red. Your thoughts . In the grand scheme of things, it has been a great start to the year. There has been a bit of red, but it has been a strong start. So it is reasonable to expect a bit of a pull back. Overall, the backdrop is still supported. Corporate earnings are strong, so we expect the market to continue to climb higher. We are going to talk about amazon go and that supermarket later and whether it is too easy to shoplift. And too easy to spend lets move on. In a few hours, the government will launch an inquiry into construction giant carillion, which collapsed two weeks ago, putting thousands ofjobs at risk. Joining us now to talk about this is lord maude, former minister for business, innovation and skills. Welcome to business live. Good morning to you. Good morning. There are so many elements to this colla pse are so many elements to this collapse of it is hard the government clearly they need to investigate. Clearly they need to understand what went wrong. I was the minister responsible for the Efficiency Programme where we took £50 billion out of the overhead running costs of government in the space of five years. One of the things we did was to look at how we fifiufififisfif hafizl. elli 7 , lllllllll l5 ; li, l; l. 72 ifthatat , £52255 . Ifthatatthatmf l. If that at that stage. was almost as if that at that stage procurement was being done in a way to freeze out small supplies making the government reliant on a handful of big suppliers. They used to do you have got to if; three and insurance in place to. ,. Last of g liability cover the last of the liability under a g before you lllllll ll llllllllll llllell lll lalj elln so, a hole lot of the contract. So, a hole lot of things like that which were counter productive and gave far too much power to a handful of big suppliers and we reformed that in the space of five years in a way that did give a lot of support to uk based smaller suppliers who found themselves in many cases for the first time able to bid for and win government contracts. Briefly, how comprehensive will this investigation be and will it be one that people will believe in . |j investigation be and will it be one that people will believe in . I hope so. That people will believe in . I hope so. It will to be comprehensive and look at everything. It will not avoid the fact that businesses, sometimes fail. That is a fact of life whether the government is Counter Party or not. Sometimes businesses are not well run and sometimes external events move against them in a way that makes them unsustainable. It will need to look at what happened here, but the one thing, i would be concerned about, was we have set in place a system where the government had crown representatives senior figures who spent a bit of time dealing specifically with suppliers and that post was left unfilled im told. Thank you for your time on Business Post was left unfilled im told. Thank yol the your time on business e m. Buzzfeed. It says that in a period of the next 15 years, growth could be as low as 8 or 8 lower if the uk stayed in the European Union. It is 8 lower than if it was trading at wto rules. The government makes it clear, they say this analysis does not take into account the brexit option that it prefers, but nonetheless, concerns too about whether that stewedy shows the fate of the uk economy after brexit. The past decade has been good to middle eastern airlines, particularly those in the gulf. Theyve been the biggest buyers of new planes, theyve been building bigger and bigger airports and passenger numbers have soared. But the last 18 months have been much tougher blamed on Economic Uncertainty and worries over security and global terrorism. And also some froksist actions in the us. Protectionist actions in the us. The Biggest Airline in the region is emirates. Its based in dubai and operates more than 3,600 flights a week. Those flights go to more than 150 destinations around the globe. And last year they carried more than 59 million passengers. I caught up with companys president , sir tim clark in los angeles. And i stared asking him how the firm has been coping with the problems of the past year. I used to tell the team we probably have two major events that are going to affect us. Having five, six, seven or eight in six months is difficult. I think we learn from what happens. We learn about how we went about managing the issue, how went about managing the issue, how we managed to transform certain elements of the business to deal with it and the more you do that, the more capable you are when things come along. You never know what theyre going to be. We moved quickly on the laptop ban. It took us quickly on the laptop ban. It took us four days to get the companys procedures and protocols so we could deal with that. We introduced technology into the company so were stripping out layers of process and dare i say, people in that context, but you know, it goes on. This is a continuation of addressing the business, the various pockets, the corners, every part of the business llerlch. Lllllll n. R ll lllll llllilllll. L l lll em that will 35255 are llllllllllllllllllj. L llll lllll l l l most visible for llllllllllllllllllj. L llll lllll l l l most visible for example the most visible changes for example starting to charge to book a seat in emirates economy. Do you worry that that changes the brand . It changes it into a low cost model . That changes the brand . It changes it into a lowcost model . Now, its clear to us that the price sensitive nature of our markets is becoming more and more apparent and that assisted by the onset of the Digital World in terms of the btc reach through Airline Online systems and also booking and search engines, i can name a few, that are there and place is before and the consumer is becoming far price before and the consumer is becoming far price sensitive before and the consumer is becoming far price sensitive and far far more price sensitive and far more discerning and in that context, we found that people are prepared to go for the lowest price, but they would like a menu of things to select so if they want seat selections, they want better food and whatever it maybe, more baggage, etcetera, they re prepared and whatever it maybe, more baggage, etcetera, theyre prepared to pay it with an uplift through the ancillary stream. Emirates always put the on board product front and centre of what it offers. It is notjust an airline. It is everything that goes with it. If it becomes all about price, be that the Price Transparency on flight website and the number, do you lose that thing that you have had for so long . We must deliver what we have done in the past, create the aspirations through the Brand Marketing programme and deliver the aspirations and better and somehow we have got to be able to do that cheaper and i believe we can and
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