Hello and welcome to dateline london. Im carrie gracie. This week hong kong in tears. Gulf tankers in flames. And britains marmite man in pole position to become the next Prime Minister. My guests today are chinese writer diane weiliang, uk political commentator steve richards, Agnes Poirier of french news weekly marianne, and american journalist Michael Goldfarb of the podcast frdh. Hong kong wept last week. Its leader, carrie lam, was in tears because so many of her citizens distrusted her assurances on a new extradition law and took to the streets in protest. The protestors wept because they had been tear gassed by police. But their determination paid off. This weekend the government suspended its plans for the extradition bill and said it would listen. What next for the unique and fragile ecosystem that is hong kong . Diane, what happened here . It looks like a a dramatic u turn. Last week the government was defiant, sending out police with rubber bullets. It is in some ways a surprising move. If we look at the 2014 Yellow Umbrella Movement and the stand off, the Hong Kong Government won in the end. Recently it was the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen Democracy Movement and we know how that ended. That was beijing, not hong kong, and we know how that that autonomy, as we have been watching, has been eroded over time. This one country two systems, it is not absolute terms. In a way, it was slightly surprising for carrie lam to step down and suspend the vote. Overnight she was reported to have met with the minister for hong kong from beijing and no one knew what they discussed but my suspicion is this is people power and the demonstrators are winning this round but it was the result of international pressure, for example, donald trump indicated he could bring this up at g20 meetings with xi jinping in two weeks time. In the context of the us china trade war. And the us congress had passed a bill to annually assess the trade status with the us and china. Lots of different active groups. We will come back to the International Dimension in a moment butjust to look at the action on the streets of hong kong, what was really noticeable on this occasion was the support that the protesters had both from elements in the business community, the legal community, it wasnt just young students. That was important for any scholars of chinese history, china has had a long history of student led movements that ended up in failure. 30 years ago, when those students went to tiananmen square, the big learning was we must do something that was different then than the may the 4th movement in 1990, which was to involve the whole community, the workers and civil servants, because student only protests had never succeeded in china. Student protests have never been successful in china. This is a successful movement as an example. But with a broader support and the voices of young people have become stronger. The uk has treaty obligations to hong kong until 2047, this 50 year period of autonomy, one country two systems, but the British Government was slow to get involved in talking about this extradition bill, really only since we have seen people on the streets. Was it fear of beijing or misreading the mood in hong kong. Both of those but there is basically a vacuum in britain at the moment, ministers are not behaving normally. The foreign secretary is involved in a leadership contest. I dont think ministerial minds are focused very much on anything else, going on to iran in a moment, and to some extent the same applies there. It is partly that. Its partly the fact that it is trying to manage, in a way, an arrangement that worked theoretically at the time but will be constantly challenged in practice because the power lies with china and i think it will be a constant balancing act. A combination where eyes are off the ball in the uk at the moment plus a constant reading about where power really lies, it lies probably, even though this protest was successful, with the chinese government. While we are doing the people confused by leadership elections, there is a leadership change going on in europe. Do you think the underlying issues are the same as those steve has mentioned in relation to the uk, the assessment of forces on each side . There are french citizens speaking here, it always pays off to take to the street. The first round is victory for the people of hong kong, so it is a great thing to see from europe, but it is also. We are so far away and we fear that hong kong is doomed to eventually, you know, there is china but in 28 years it is going to be completely china, not democratic china. Some businessmen are moving their Assets Abroad and singapore and japan are going to welcome that very International Community with a lot of ties to canada, europe and america, and it looks as if, if you look back five years ago to the umbrella movement, there was an optimism about it, and although we are seeing this from far away, i can only see despair and pessimism in hong kong, despite the great victory. If we take a long view, it looks to me like the last battle of hong kong. Michael, what do you think the us makes of all this . Agnes says it is democratic china but there is limited democracy in hong kong and more democratic china is actually taiwan. How does the us see these forces aligned . You say the us, and we have to be specific and say, how does the Trump Administration see these things. Who knows . One of the problems with the chaotic International Leadership of the Trump Administration is that you just dont know. I am sure that this will be used as a chip in any negotiations with china, with the straight wire drawing negotiations with china, with the trade war growing and every week there are two or three different stories coming from either side about raising tariffs here and they are, besides getting angry. I dont think democracy enters into it. If the people in hong kong, the brave. Can i say how remarkable it is . My twitter feed is full of hashtag resistors who send out nasty things about donald trump and think they are striking a blow for democracy. 1 Million People from all walks of life went to the streets, they were not met with flowers, and this is an action for democracy. But in the Trump Administration it becomes this is a chip to play, or another sporting metaphor, hong kong does not want to be the football being kicked between china and the united states. I have not read anything about this from american congresspeople or anything but this is an action of democracy. 0n the numbers, the protesters said they had those numbers but the police say far fewer. But we saw the pictures. I want to go to beijing and strategic objectives and how it sees its Strategic Direction in hong kong. It must be a difficult moment for the Chinese Communist party which likes to see itself as unassailable, invincible and likes to look like that on the street. Which they still believe they are. They see this as a setback but also in the short term it is strategic because they have the donald trump meeting, the g20, the trade wire, they have bigger fish to fry. 0n the other hand, over time, i have to agree with agnes that you will see hong kong deteriorating, this autonomy, and we have already seen it happen. In this protest people are already behaving very much as if they were in china. They dont talk to journalists, they dont want to give their names, they wear masks so they will not be photographed. Because they fear long term victimisation . Yes. It is different from the yellow umbrellas. Hong kong is becoming more like china. China knows. Playing a long game. Yes. Now we have to talk about iran. As on may 12th, so onjune 13th. Except bigger. Attacks on two tankers in shippings most sensitive chokepoint. This time with fires that force the crews of both ships to evacuate. The us says iran is responsible. On friday it released grainy video to back up the charge. Iran hotly denies it. An Aircraft Carrier strike force is close by. How do you read this situation . This is probably an escalation of two long term antagonists who at the moment, my guess is, in washington the war with iran with iran faction is now in the white house, john bolton, mike pompeo, so they are pushing for aggressive action. Do they really want a war . I dont think they really want a war, i think they would like regime change if they could, they cannot, and in iran you have the revolutionary guard and they have factions but we dont get to know much about it because you cant operate as a journalist in iran. The question about war is important here. People get upset, we are going to have war i remind people that iran kidnapped 52 american diplomats and kept them hostage for a year, we didnt go to war. The blew up 250 marines in beirut, we didnt go to war. Over the last a0 years, where we are now is a lot of tension and it may increase incrementally, but we dont think about the other player here, which is russia. Iran and russia are involved in syria and intimately connected, geographically they are intimately connected, it is only a 500 miles drive from russias main western caspian sea port to iran. If you put these factors together you think if russia wants to intervene here, is there going to be a war . No, but there will be tension. That is there a great game you have set out and on the other side there are the uae and saudi arabia and regional rivals. 0n the direct question of who actually attacked these tankers . I really worry about the rush. You would think all signs point to iran, even though you would think all signs point to iran, even the Foreign Office today said, yesterday, jeremy hunt said on balance we think it is iran. But steve eloquently and briefly pointed out that nobody is really paying much attention at that level in the British Government so they mayjust be echoing america. You have to say who benefits from doing this . They didnt sink anything, they made a point, the japanese owner of one of the tankers said it wasnt landmines it was something that flew in and hit the side of the vessel. And it happened on the day the japanese Prime Minister was in tehran. Exactly. Everybody is making points. We have spoken about the g20 meeting. At the end of this month there is supposed to be a big meeting in bahrain where the us is going to present its plan for israel palestine peace. I think it is about getting attention and, lord knows, we are talking about it so they got attention. What about the european perspective on this . Are the europeans blaming iran or the Trump Administration for tearing up the nuclear deal . They havent been as quick as the uk to concur with Donald Trumps evidence. Germany said we need more evidence. I dont think president macron hasnt said anything yet. All of this is the result of the undiplomatic result of trump withdrawing from the nuclear deal. How does that relate . The diplomacy of trump regarding iran is all caution. We will cripple your economy, more sanctions, and what is there for iran . Iran made a real effort with the agreement. It was not a perfect agreement but it was something. And actually a few weeks ago iran said if you are really wanting to ruin our economy we will take measures so perhaps it is those attacks. Talking about leaving the question open, the opposition in the uk, Jeremy Corbyn, said we should not be rushing to judgment on this. Where does that leave him . It leaves him making a distinct point and he will get criticised for it but in my view it is quite helpful to have a british political leader not automatically rushing to assume that the us judgment on this is right. Quite unusual in british politics. Normally a labour Opposition Leader will feel so under pressure to show they are responsibility to lead as a potential Prime Minister they would follow the orthodoxy. Jeremy corbyn does not do that and now he is condemned as anti american instinctively. I think where the evidence is not definitive it is healthy to have a sceptical voice as prominent as the leader of the opposition and quite unusual, not for him, but in british politics over the last 30 years where there is an immediate consensus which often proves to be wrong. I dont want to leave china out of this discussion. Global economic superpower, huge growing interest in that region, and both those tankers were bound for asia, so where does china sit on these issues . China is one of the largest importers of oil from iran, a huge customer, and china has always said that when trump withdrew from the deal that this would happen, the tensions would rise in the region, and china has always been against the move. China together with south korea and japan had exemptions from importing oil until recently, november of last year, when trump cancelled that, so in a way that was the last lifeline for irans economy and now it is being strangled. It is not out of the question that iran would have to react and this has been predicted by many countries, china included. We will leave that topic now. Here in the uk were less than one week into the conservative Party Contest to find a new leader, and a Prime Minister to lead the country out of its brexit crisis. But several candidates have already fallen by the wayside. Is the frontrunner heading for a coronation . Steve . The front runner being borisjohnson, former foreign secretary, stand up comedian, various other things he has done at various points. I dont think it will be a coronation, i think the contest must continue into what becomes the last two candidates, like a whodunnit going to the party membership. I dont think the membership would allow or want a coronation before they get the chance for that. But that is the speculation in westminster that there are forces to try and wrap it up. They might say that brexit is so important lets not extend it unnecessarily. I think there will be a contest that goes to the party membership. What i find interesting about this contest is that, more than most leadership contests, all kinds of extraordinarily wild pledges are being made, as if this new Prime Minister would be elected into a parliament in which he or she could do what they wanted, but what is unusual about the contest is it is taking place in a Hung Parliament, so the new Prime Minister will have no control over that parliament. Leading in a Hung Parliament demands almost impossible skills, patience, cunning, charm, mastery of detail, accepting defeats and moving on and everyone who has experience that goes through forms of political hell. It seems as though none of the candidates are addressing that context. They all say we will be out of the eu by october, tax cuts here, tax cuts there, it will not get through a Hung Parliament. The skills of a potential leader in that situation have not been tested or even raised as an issue so far in what has been a kind of fantastical contest. I think the joke about the unicorns in the brexit deal have now extended to the entirety of the leadership contest. We never talk about Jeremy Corbyn when we talk about brexit and the conservative party but one of the dynamics i have noticed is that for this system to work, and its true in the us as well, there has to be a viable opposition to keep the abstracts of the political processes going, like a bicycle, it has to turn over or it falls over. Because of the nature of the labour leadership, that buttressing simply doesnt exist and so if there was a plausible opposition you wouldnt have a dozen anybody contesting this leadership, there would be one or two plausible candidates, because labour would be presenting a plausible opposition platform but because labour is absent on brexit, which is the big question confronting the country, trying to have it both ways, because Jeremy Corbyn hasnt built on the surprise result of 2017, it allows the conservative party to go into cloud cuckoo land, which is what it seems like, and you end up with borisjohnson. A year ago on this programme when we had conservative voices on, i was told Boris Johnson will never be Prime Minister because the Parliamentary Party, the conservative Parliamentary Party hates him, and here we are a year later and he is going to be crowned. Agnes. Where do we start . There is only one candidate that is facing reality, and his name is rory stewart, but he doesnt stand a chance of being elected. What is the reality he is facing that others arent . All the others say they are going to renegotiate but this is not going to happen. All they can do is to discuss the political declaration with brussels, with the eu. Rory stewart is the only one to say. He is not confrontational. You can see how perhaps being very different from theresa may, he could build a consensus in parliament. But lets not talk about him because he is not going to be elected. Borisjohnson says, on your point about what is not negotiable, he doesnt believe that because he believes the closer you get to a possible no deal then brussels will change its mind. Brussels is very familiar with Boris Johnson from various different episodes in his career as a journalist, brexiteer, foreign secretary. Do they think bring it on when the sea borisjohnson do they think bring it on when the see borisjohnson so far in the lead or are the brooding and muttering . I think both. They are bewildered like the rest of us in europe. This National Exercise in self harm is bewildering to watch. You dont like seeing a friend self harming, basically. Boris johnson, the problem is it is a deadly combination between narcissism and laziness and you dont achieve anything in politics, especially negotiating, with 27 other members, with that quality. Diane . Agnes is not a big fan of borisjohnson but his supporters say he will bring energy and charisma. I think the function of the tory leadership election, it is a reflection of the dysfunction of politics in the country where only one item has been catching attention for the past three years and exhausted everyones energy, so it becomes who can promise the biggest and best solution and one single solution alone. And whether it will be achieved or not, it is completely cast to the side. That is the reality that this contest represents, so we are not looking at the quality required for a Prime Minister. Coming back to you, stephen, we are running short of time, but these type of messages suggest that perhaps another few weeks of this contest is not really what the nation, or what some will want. I think they will because theresa may if you remember got crowned with the thorny crown of Prime Minister after a very short contest and she wasnt really tested so i think they will continue with the contest. I did worse than your fellow panellists saying a year ago that he wouldnt get it, i wrote a column i thought all the rules of politics suggested he wouldnt get it but i think what has changed. Why . There was a hysteria around him and candidates like that dont tend to win. What has changed as donald trump has given permission for candidates to appear with epic floors and win. To appear with epic flaws and win. And nigel farage is this character especially on brexit and they feel they need a winner in that context and they think it is him. That is why he is the clear favourite when a year ago people said he would make it to the last two. Thats it for dateline london for this week. Were back next week at the same time. Goodbye. Hello. While there is some sunshine for sunday, also more showers. A slow moving area of low pressure to the north and west of the uk and another frontal system working northwards and eastwards, generating showers first thing on sunday across scotland, northern ireland, the western side of england and wales. Stead ily western side of england and wales. Steadily marching northwards and eastwards. A large sway of the uk. Showers heavy and thundery unlikely to merge to give a longer spell of rain. Gusty winds end and near this rain. Gusty winds end and near this rain. The gusts will be higher than this. A chance for the afternoon of fewer showers across southern and south western counties. More sunshine with temperatures up to 21 celsius. 14 15 where we have the frequent showers. More showers to come as we start mother, particularly for scotland and northern ireland. Dryer and warmer in the south and east. Hello and welcome to bbc news. Im reged ahmad people are expected to return to the streets on sunday, despite hong kongs government suspending its controversial plan to allow alleged criminals to be extradited to mainland china. The proposals resulted in mass protests in the former british colony some of which turned violent. 0ur correspondent Rupert Wingfield hayes reports from hong kong. Fellow citizens and members of the media. As she stood alone at the podium, carrie lam must have known every pair of eyes in hong kong was watching her