The black friday search makes him 100 billion man. Hello from sydney where it is past 9 a. M. This is daybreak australia. Asiasan hour away from opening markets. And 5 p. M. In new york on the sunday evening, i am betty lou. To the mallst out and the shopping district. What is going to move in the markets come monday is going to be some of those retail stocks. Lets pull up the shares quickly. Amazon inns in anticipation of good black friday weekend sales. Paul, black friday didnt come with it came with some glitches. Macys had some problems online and walmart saw some of their sales in their physical stores. That will be the focus on the monday trade. Paul i have seen some doubters adjusting black friday stick black friday sales may top five alien, which is a record, and there is still cyber monday to come. Seem toasia it doesnt be feeding through to futures here. Over new zealand we have already gotten looking kind of fat desk looking kind of flat. The future of australias looking kind of flat, off by a single point. Consolidate,llar after that little rally we saw a week ago. The aussie qe crosley aussie kiwi cross rate. Lets get the first word news. Thank you very much. Pakistan has scaled back its response to conservative protest that have paralyzed the capital in the past three weeks. The government is sending and paramilitary forces, after the army called for a peaceful solution. Two Police Officers and six other people have died in clashes. Investors may unnerve. In germany chancellor angela has step back from the possibility of a new elections telling a possible revival of a grand coalition between democrats and opposition social democrats. The spd really spoke of it. If also said any potential Coalition Partner would have to support a balanced budget and broadly probe policies. Enters a crucial week with Senate Leaders planning a make or break vote as soon as this thursday. Democrats are expected to derail that bill. And bitcoin has surged past the with gains above 800 . The worlds most popular cryptocurrency continues to climb despite warnings of a bubble. The group is planning to offer futures contracts from next month and coin market. Com says the total market cap of Digital Currencies is now more than 209 billion. Google news in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Pick facest trumps a confirmation hearing on tuesday a day before a current chair janet yellen testifies before congress. Isomberg economics policy here come a look at this weeks agenda for the central bank. Lets talk about those that inflation doubts. This is in focus in markets around the world. Lets jump quickly into the charge to set the stage for this discussion. Showing the fed dual mandate, heres why this by the dow janet yellen and others are confident inflation will rise, because employment has fallen so much. But look at this. Is feds key inflation gauge back from 1 to 1. 3. Speaking janet yellen, in new york, acknowledged the dangers of inflation saying the factors of Inflation Expectation have fallen a little bit. Thats a bad sign if you want inflation to rise again. Then we got the fed minutes. And that seemed like a more deeper discussion among those saying yes inflation will rise, we are on the path of gradual rate hikes. High debtant raise we cant rate hike again until see inflations and inflation is on a sustainable path higher. Lets take a look at the fed week ahead. A lot going on on monday. A stock ally staunch ally is speaking. Jay powell faces a Senate Banking committee. And probably inflation. A janet yellen just janet yellen this five janet yellen testifies a joint committee in congress. Add tore six others to these top three. The treasury secretary on tuesday, speaking at the treasury market conference. The new fed president will also be speaking. This is at the new york fed. A snapshot of the 12 regions, the district banks. A meeting on the 12th and the 13th. Expect it to raise that key rate almost 100 . As ahas been mentioned possible member of the board of governors is going to be speaking here on trumps economic agenda. 3. 0, and we have the feds key inflation gauge. Central banks around the world are also on the tightening path. It looks like the bank of korea maybe next when they meet this week. People have been holding their breath to see what happens. They meet thursday according to a survey done over the weekend. Key will be raising that rate for the first time in six and half years. Lets take a look at what they are looking at now. It has been coming down for six years. Up 3. 6 driven, by exports. Has been aive months big driver. You do have inflation below the 2 target. Numbers come out thursday. They could they kick off the global release looking at manufacturing. The u. S. Will follow through on friday. Inflation, housing, writing moree possibility than the bank of japan and their policy. You know how demonetization was supposed be a temperate impact and gsp is supposed to be continuing to wait on the economy and may be get people talking more about the bank of india having to cut rates. Theres a lot more im telling you that lot more than im telling you right now. Theres a lot more than im telling you right now, but for the rba where they can ago. We are to continue this conversation on central bank policy. We will have more analysis on the bank of korea. And why it is seeing raising rates for the First Time Since 2011. We talked to amazons partners as the online behemoth gets set to launch in australia. Andrew gives us his take on what it means for local retailers. This is bloomberg. On paul allen in sydney. And im betty liu. We are watching daybreak australia. The bank of korea expected to raise their Interest Rates for the first time in more than six years. What does that mean for other Central Banks in the region . Andportfolio manager kapstream capital from sydney, is a Bloomberg Economics editor Kathleen Hays joining in on the conversation. Raymond come on its own, you would think the bull markets are looking so focused on the bank of korea. Be raising Interest Rates for the first time in six years. Do you think its time they do this . I think so if you look at the macroeconomic developments in korea. They research the corporate sector and struggling a couple of years ago. The one has rallied in quite a bit in recent weeks as well. It makes sense from a fundamental perspective. Bank of korea is not alone on many Central Banks looking to hike rates. It is debatable in australia and looking at other countries and ecb. They look to be on their tightening path, look at the bank of england. Raymond summarizing it for the fed means that the fed may be under pressure to continue this tightening path. How certain are you they are going to continue this path . Bei think its going to dependent as well. I believe koreas inflation is ok, its not as high as i wanted to be. Whether its the bank of england, the canadian bank, and the fed, they have all been theng come i would say fundamentals are still not where the central bank is wanting it to be. Theyre making some improvements into policy. How big of a deal are rate for the this point emerging markets and developed markets in asia . I think in the background thats a bit of a concern, no matter , itmuch it to be priced in should be in the past. Not just one rate hike and we stop and think about it. It has moved the currency and has moved the bonds. The last time we saw that , i feelcommunications like right now there has been a hike in december, they will likely hike another two or three times next year. As long as its well communicated and then gradually, the markets will be significant in the short term. But you will see some kind of the virgins and parlous divergence and policy. You will see some of that Going Forward definitely. Whatever happened to the phillips curve . We have inflation in the u. S. And elsewhere. Inflation is still very weak. Possible that is not correct . We are seeing a lot of inflation and asset processes. Its really going to be given by wages inflation. We havent seen that. And i think part of that is a structural reason. We have advancement in technology, globalization has pushed a lot into the emerging markets. The structural trends affecting inflation in terms of how to quantify as the more difficult question. You see inflation moving in the right direction, but its very incremental and gradual. Of course brexit heating up again, the irish eu commissioner has threatened to veto any deep veto any deal between Northern Ireland and the rest of that country. Building ons theresa may. It looks like Angela Merkel is consolidating power and that is creating doubts. We are waiting for inflation data. Do you think the ecb is going to leg the fed by a lot more than people may be expecting . Ecb i thinkof the the difference between the short end of the Balance Sheet, they made it clear they are not going to move the short and until the Balance Sheet until the last ecb meeting. Another nine and 10 months before they increase the short end. , certainlylation Political Risk as well, with the french elections in the election went all the right way. Germany,ke brexit and if they go the other way that could have implications for the market in terms of the confidence. What about applications with tax reform . What about the bond Market Pricing in right now . Thats a difficult one and one of the reasons we havent had a lot of exposure is the political reform and things coming up is very hard to judge. I would say the tax reform would be great for the economy. The tax would decrease a you see a lot of money flow back into the system. This isto reduce going to produce 1. 5 for the deficit. We will see how it plays out. Drums going to reach out to the gop members and see if you can get that through. The sorts of issues that the fed is dealing with in terms of decent employment and we can inflation, we have them here in australia too. We see Goldman Sachs push out its top push out its timetable. Where do you see the hit or miss cfl is there a case for typing for tightening . Theyre going to remain basically flat. If you look at the continuing factor, one thing they are going to look at inflation, that has been the weaker side. But if you look at the statement of monetary policy, what they have hinted is there talking about potentially hiking is the next move. I think the markets address Household Debt and leverage in the sector. And ill think theyre going to move for another couple of quarters. I dont think theyre going to move for another couple of quarters. Thanks to Kathleen Hays for joining us as well. Still plenty more to come on australia. You can find indepth analysis and todays big newsmakers on bloomberg radio. At 7into daybreak asia a. M. From hong kong. Or on bloomberg radio. Com. Good morning, i am betty lou in new york. And i am paul allen in sydney. Youre watching daybreak australia. Tocould be the first woman win to australian elections. Bloombergs australia and new zealand managed here. It was a state election. But for any evidence of this being a referendum, it is becoming increasingly unpopular. You are right, the state elections are largely fought on local issues. You shouldnt read too much into the results. It is further bad news for the government. What we saw on the States Election was independence and fringe parties most noticeably. Antimuslim immigration one nation party picking up a sizable chunk of the primary votes. And lost that didnt really materialize into a substantial tober of seats, projected pick up only one seat in the state parliament. It is further indication of expressing dissatisfaction with the political mainstream and moving off to the fringe. And that swing to one nation liberalo hurt the National Party in the north of queens landing the most. Already there were national mps blaming the results on the governments. And there was a call for the nationals with a junior Coalition Partner with liberals calling on the nationals to have a stronger more unique and independent voice. They will has a take notice of that. What does this mean then for the supposed mind that is supposed to be built by the Indian Company . Grexit throws more uncertainty in northern queensland. Both major parties premier. Party. Eral national its expected to create thousands of jobs directly and indirectly. The major point between the parties was whether or not theyre going to back about 900 million of federal funding proposed railing that was needed to take cold to the coast for the export. Now palace shades is expected to win a second term and she has vetoed federal funding. It does make the funding task more complicated and more costly , the federal funding was seen as something that would help lock in the extra money needed from primarily international banks. There are still a lot of questions. With this result still hanging in the balance, what do we watch for next . We just have to be patient really. Interesting, it really did earlythe wire and they hours on saturday night and sunday morning. Of ys shes confidence confident of getting a majority. She needs 47 seats in the 93 seat parliament. She stopped short of declaring victory. We need to let the vote continue. Its probably going to take place through the remainder of the week. The australian broadcasting, they are projecting pala shaye will be get look at between 47 and 48 feet which will see them get over the line and the majority government. The election wasnt a referendum on the government. It has been hugely controversial. It was very much a defining issue of the election. Typically around Southeast Queens land in the urban areas there was a lot of opposition to that australia aouldnt be allowing substantial new Coal Mine Development to be taking place and this could lead to extra carbon pollution. Forhe Sydney Bureau chief new zealand. A quick check now all the latest business flash headlines. It faces further scrutiny and false information of a takeover of zurichbased holding. They fail to disclose the company held important stakes in the deal. Ruling has no impact on the validity of the takeover. Bank expected to proceed with its investment in uber, despite ache despite a Security Breach they covered up for years. Group aims to buy police 14 of uber from currents shareholders current shareholders. The ft said Standard Chartered is considering another one or two Aviation Finance joint ventures and a list one that launched in china earlier this year. The banks Corporate Finance says the ventures would potentially be in southeast asia, middle east, and africa. The aviation financing pembroke began in march with the development. Its a crunch for republicans needing a muchneeded political win on taxes. We are going live to washington to talk tax reform. This is bloomberg. It is that 30 a. M. In sydney. Future is looking kind of flat. I am paul allen in sydney. You are watching daybreak australia, getting some first word news. First, to egypt where the deadliest terror attack in a century as stocks rose on sunday. 1 taking therose advance of 15 this year more than 300 people were killed in the attack. Raised their Security Threat to the highest level after the ice estate claimed responsibility. Over to china, it is not clear what killed a explosion that killed two people on sunday. , it than 30 others injured has flattened vacant hoping for demolition. Local Construction Company said there are pipes in that area. Donald tusk says the u. K. Has several days to produce a new document on brexit if they want to break the deadlock before the new year. Theresa may has until monday to bridge the gap between the sides. On that site she is scheduled to juncker aclaude deadline that is now critical. Reports from new york say meredith corp. Is close to a time to acquire time think with the koch brothers. They are going to meet sunday evening to complete the deal. That would value the transaction at about 2 billion. A source for the talks say they could still fall apart. Global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts, in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Paul . A quick update on the markets. Take a look at new zealand. For about 90 minutes now. Not a lot going on. The eu dollar and the french weaker against the greenback. We are taking a look at the features here on australia. Not a lot of action there either. With the things giving holiday, retailers begin the way but not really feeling it here though as sidees slant on the weaker against the greenback. Consolidating against this. More now on what we should be watching as trading is underway and asia. Adam, projections for next year . If the forecasts are right, heading for a milestone. We are at the time of the year where all of the strategists dust off their crystal balls and look at their predictions for next year. That is the interesting take away. If they are projecting correctly this bull market and sipping the nds up being the longest in history. At the census estimates they are now at 2800 for the s p 500. Closing on a record high on friday. With a combination of the tax plan coming through and substantial earnings that could continue to grow next year in combination with their economy that continues to grow. Those are all factors that are leading wall street to look at this. Whether or not we had that milestone we are not that far off. Thisitably incredible that is. Also, bitcoin that has been on the move again. Surging over the weekend. What is behind this latest stride . Just when you thought this might peter out we have another 30 . But spring it up on the bloomberg. This is coming on the back of already having gone through that 8,000 milestone just six days ago. 13 ,e now through 9000 up we have seen some of the trading. There are a few theories out there as to why we have this latest up tick. One of the biggest coin based exchanges had a big amount of subscribers last week. Also the fact that people are not selling off head of some expected splits that are happening with it going diamond and super bitcoin. It does seem like this does have legs. We are now above a part 800 . They are running to get these futures trading sometime in december. We do have a larger growing acceptance from mainstream Institutional Investors that class takingsx keynote of. Many skeptics out there as we get through 9,000 i am sure they will grow. Abouty are not shy voicing that skepticism. Rushingan lawmakers are to secure the votes they need to finalize a tax bill that makes it to President Trump desk by the end of the year. Gop leaders plan a make or break vote on thursday. To speak out,id they are all talking about tax reform. The major Sticking Point remains what . It is really about how much how much itsts and as to the federal budget deficit over one decade. With effectlinked complex to senate rules and if the second pass this measure on a simple majority vote we have a new report out from the Congressional Budget Office and they are worried about the federal budget deficit that is similar to other reports we have had. They say 1. 4 trillion but one thing is they do not have time to do a dynamic scoring on this will to say how much Economic Growth could be help. That is kind of a Sticking Point for lawmakers such as bob corker and other fiscally conservative republicans who really want to the blowback and the offset of the growth in the republican lawmakers are talking about today. A lot ofnly there is double in the details. What about the Obamacare Mandate, whether that can hold some key republican support . From heard last week senator Susan Collins of maine want that element to be and this tax reform bill. Athink she thinks there is chance that she could put pressure on Republican Leadership to have that taken out. Bill comes in the next couple of days, whether she is successful and that and even though the Obamacare Mandate repeal is not in the house vote, within it is not a bad idea. It may not be something if the Senate Bill Passes would be a real problem during reconciliation. We still have senator ron johnson of wisconsin how thisncerned about filtering Small Businesses and large corporations. A handful of is other senators who have different concerns and they do not line up in the same direction. Definitely leadership has their work cut out for them to really modify every wing of this party. Has the white house changed their strategy in the past few days . R one thing we did not seeos was any Administration Officials coming on the talk shows to sell that bill. There was a report in the last few days that was unverified but theaid paul ryan had asked white house to not send Steve Mnuchin up to the hill to try and sell that bill. There is a sense that some of the Administration Key figures and multimillionaire businessman may not be the right people to sell this bill. We did not see anything from them today. President trump will go up to the hill to talk to senate republicans. Paul ross kresge in washington, thank you for joining us. Is yet toyber monday come. We will be looking at those numbers next. This is bloomberg. I am paul allen in sydney. I am betty lou, you are watching daybreak australia. Retailers adding up how black friday really was for them. Online spending hit a record billion dollars according to Adobe Systems monitoring, that is a 15 jump from last year. We still have to wait for cyber that starts at the stroke of midnight. Happening with the bloomberg charts on what you need to know. U. S. Online retail is definitely merry and bright, my first bloomberg chart shows the chart of amazon against alibaba. Right look at this blip here it is too and a half percent. The biggest jump in a month. Isy are saying that amazon going to pull 1 billion in sales just for black friday everything is said and done. In addition amazon is estimated to get 45 of all Online Retail for that month. It is contrasted interestingly and thehave alibaba Share Price Fell by about two and a half percent on monday even though it did see a record sales of 25 billion. If we look at this bloomberg terminal chart we are talking about amazon being the biggest Online Retailer and we are comparing that with walmart who is the biggest retailer. Muchrt market cap is very worked by amazon. Coming in at 572 billion here at walmart coming in at 290 billion. We are seeing some strong ecommerce growth for walmart. They are seen Digital Sales up by about 50 , you can see they still have a long way to go to try and catch up. It is not over, head on over to the side. We are seeing thanksgiving and black friday sales with people who plan to shop in brickandmortar stores and digital. We still do see cyber monday. Take a look at this. 70 of the response in the surveyed said they are going to be handed to online when they are going to be buying all of their Christmas Shopping compared to cyber monday and brickandmortar which is only 38 . Adobes and this could be the Online Shopping day of the year coming in at 6. 6 billion dollars in sales. That is just a little trickle of that. I got to start my shopping, thank you for that reminder. Amazon rose 5 last year. Jeff bezos, the founder of amazon reached 100 billion, bill gates reached that before. He becomes only the second billionaire to meet 12 figures. It is incredible. What i love about this story is that only now jeff bezos is wondering what to do with all of this money, how do i give the away . Were buffett and bill gates have argument giving away their money and now we have this big booze. What do you do with that . Sure there are plenty of people who would be willing to accept that. With this function on the bloomberg if you would like to see the richest people in the world. Not me at 482. Bill gates is there at second place. Withbezos right at the top 100. 3 billion. Amazonbout to launch here in australia that is going to create quite a bit of a disruption. Betty we have been talking about how amazon is going to change the retail market. We know that they have had good luck and also some not great luck in other countries particularly in asia. In singapore earlier this year they tried to go into the market but they run into some problems because in singapore people like to shop. When off their big pastimes is going to a store and shopping. That kind of leaves out the retailer like amazon. Paul i lived in singapore for a while and i can vouch for that national sport. Joining us for more on the Australian Retail is andrew clack. The only cashback site to have amazon. Com as a partner. As we have been discussing, a runaway not been success. There may be a few challenges here in australia with a country the size of u. S. And a very centralized population. Absolutely. Interestingly, i think that is part of the reason for the delay. We were due to launch last week if not before. That fell apart. We are not sure it was a dictionary day a here a extraordinary day here in australia. Doubtk it would have been without a doubt the biggest shopping day ever in australia. In love of retailers were prepping for amazon and had their guns blazing on black friday. It was a messy day for Online Retailers. retail online in australia is 4 of total sales. I think that cap push up to the percent. As of friday, i am saying it will take off. With the amazon factor we should get up to . 50 or six percent in five years with the u. K. And the u. S. And other markets. Betty i want to pull up a chart how the retailers have been performing with the broader wrench mark. If we look at the chart it shows how much they have been returning with the australian market. How do you think this entrance whether this turns into a reality or not, how much do you think it will continue to force the retailers to innovate. What you think they are going to have to do to retaliate against amazon if this threat is imagined or not . What was evidenced by me on black friday here in australia was that some of that more agile retailer had already adapted. They are doing some very good things now. We were not seeing those one year ago. Greater providing much incentives and loyalty programs. With experiential shopping. Is on the waytail to countering the amazon attacks. There are some who will be left by. Y tell me what your partnership is with amazon, what i continue when they launch . The firste are loyalty publisher. Is on our website. Thatamazon launches here will set sail. Paul you can see some of the retailers are all away. I think the retailers that will try and be tough will be kmart. Possibly a is exception because they have been providing that service and they had been on the front foot. Experiencing with collection and some good things with food. It is a little bit of a worry and mike and you did he is a big target. The Department Store category will be challenge. For it could be a disaster Australian Retail, tell us about what those mediumsized retailers are doing . Ul with their store network. Group andthe retail it is doing a very good job of that. There is a super retailer with quite a few brands and they have been doing very well with their online expense driving instore and using that network that they have as we saw with whole foods and amazon in the u. S. That is a area that amazon is vulnerable with not having that network can be able to provide those experiences. Even quicker than prime pickup. Ability . W is the huge. Vulnerability is it could wipe out those stores that could not get their act together. A have been seeing is we have been working with retailers in australia. As we said before, a number of them have been doing good stuff. A number of them have not been rooted it is really going to pan out in the next year. thank you so much. I assume we want going to be we are going to be hearing from news from you. Dayore news to get your going with this edition of daybreak, subscribers can go on their terminal that is available on mobile and can also customize your settings so you like it used on the industry that you care about it. This is bloomberg. Good morning, i am betty lou in new york. Paul i am paul allen in sydney. The kickoff the latest at this twoline with saudi arabia Biggest Companies agreeing to build a plan to process crude oil. A final value of 50 billion. They will process 400 billion barrels of oil per day. Saudi arabia is moving to a more diverse economy to wean itself off oil. He raise as job much as 2 million or the initial offering of their retail unit. 64y are offering this at cents a series which would value this at eight and 10 billion. I feel activity showing signs of picking up after only two details were completed in 2015 and 2016. Paul a focus for pitching their telecom business. From thecomes Australian Financial review citing documents sent into private equity buyers. Goldman sachs made the pitch with formal papers due next month. They want a deal before the fiscal year ends. Bros. Justice league held a second top spot at the box office earning more than 13 million and 13 territories. Earning aation coco top spot on the thanksgiving debut. It opened last month and has been a big hit in china making 18 million over the weekend. Paul that is almost at four daybreak australia. Daybreak next with asia, lets take a look at what is coming up next. You guys have been talking about the year ahead and what is in store. The outlook from the base, we are going to look at Goldman Sachs and the chief specific strategist here in hong kong. They are quite bullish when it comes to asia in particular when it comes to china as well. Last week of trading their 7 ecast for the sent to hit up from what we saw last week. In china they think they could and at 100. 14 of thatnother upside next year. Go lower are going to on the second half is we do see the fed raking up next year. About 2018 outlooks, shenzhen is going to join us or a more detailed look at the details global look. He is going to join us on how he differs from our earlier guess who does not think it will move this week. They are going to have the chief investment strategist talking about the fed going there. Withve them all talking inflation on the pressure that is going to put on deal. That is all coming up from daybreak australia. This is bloomberg. 7 00 a. M. Here in hong kong. We are live in the asian headquarters. Two big daybreak asia. Build. Ket looks ready to with more fresh eyes on wall street. Eight years after its birth bitcoin is set to get another huge milestone surging past 9,000. From Bloomberg Global headquarters i am betty liu. Eveningroadcasting this after the thanksgiving weekend. It is a important week for the fed. Jay