Bloomberg surveillance. We welcome all of you. Markets on the move. Price upcoming yields down. With that away important claims number. Jonathan just a sense of risk aversion. Everything you expect playing out. Ive said it before, i will say it again. For most people come of the gdp numbers are for the economic historians. The payroll claims, the jobless claims are for the traders. Intothe high data folds the ugly gdp report. What do you see within your reading of the linkage of the American Economy into your bond market . Lisa that is what i am struggling with right now. I was looking at the yields, the rate that these companies are charged to borrow money. The yield is almost near a record low at about 0. 5 away. What is the message from that . Economically, how do you connect that to anything going on with the jobless claims, other than just what the fed is doing to stimulate growth . Tom jon ferro, answer the question. How can you have a default dynamic that we have right now . We are near record low borrowing costs. The fed policy rate is really low as well. Is think you have to bear than mine. Market, really narrow spreads as well. When you think about this away from absolute borrowing costs, important to the people borrowing money, it is about spreads at this point. At five percentage points, we are nowhere near the last 12 months. Tom what i want to do is say good morning first two gary steve majorguy like at hsbc. He wrote the incredibly important essay on yields lower a year ago. Someone else, and we will get to a discussion of Precious Metals in china and the rest come with Michael Shaoul of market field asset management. He has a wonderful, holistic view of what we see in the market. What do these low yields signal to you . Michael theres just a persistent bid at the long end of the treasury curve. A lot of economic uncertainty, and i think a lot of Bond Investors feel that if inflationary pressures started to build in the fed would misbehave, the yield curve is under control. Has the incentive to maximize duration under those circumstances. Tom i think michael nailed that right there, the idea of a yield analysis where you switch to price where it is just about people bidding up the paper. Jonathan betting against the fed then is betting for a steeper curve. With that be right . Michael . My think that is the case. I think under some circumstances, you may have a here is thee, but power of fed Forward Guidance in the sense of what is going to happen. I would add a caveat. If genuine inflationary pressures start to become obvious later this year or early next year, i think you are going to give the bond market it very hard call to make. But if we stay where we are today, the bond market is extremely quiet, and extremely quiet markets tend to stay that way until something changes. Inflationaryes pressure mean in an area where we see food price inflation, home price inflation, but salaries are going down . Michael i think what you need to see is enough inflation measured within cpi to convince people that something is changing. Should now bei called the covid price index because what has happened post covid is were markable deflation in services that people arent using. Transportation and no tells, things like that. But there is real inflation now within the food complex. I think that is going to spread into logistical inflation later on this year. But after many years of inflation surprising to the isnside, i think it understandable the market will wait until is its absolutely obvious that covid has been more inflationary then deflationary. Jonathan what is happening in Precious Metals right now, with all of that in mind . I thinkhink michael inflation rises because money is abundant and priced too cheaply. You have right now is Precious Metals responding to Monetary Policy globally, and the lack of alternatives like gold versus fixed income, i think we have reached a very important point at which it is not just gold high betabut the more metals starting to go up as well. That it few weeks ago would be the point at which you enter a reflationary period. That is where i think we are right now. It is a very long way away from the deflationary pressures that people thought were going to be created by covid three months ago. Lisa given the fact that you think Precious Metals will continue to have a bid based on what we are seeing with Central Banks, can we see gold continue to rally intended with equities . Michael yes. In fact, i would be more confident of gold going up significantly over the past few months then i would for the s p 500. I think gold is in the middle of the s p wast, like when it was marching to 2000 and people realized that this really was going to be a historic bull market for the s p. I dont think it is going to be straight sailing for gold, and obviously not for silver. I think there will be a lot of this isty, but i think the most bullish backdrop for Precious Metals that i have seen since i started following closely 20 years ago. Tom 20 years ago, there werent etfs. Gold is of a bid to the ancient bid to gold versus the new financial is asian of the bid to gold the new financialization to the bid to gold . Michael i would refer you to the bond market, where the etf phenomenon started to build. They were not a factor 10 years ago, and now have a massive amount of bond holdings. I dont think that negates the genuine nature of the bond market rally of that time, so yes, i think etf ownership is very important for Precious Metals. It has allowed a different kind of buyer to be long metals. I think a lot of institutions would not bought would not want to belong physical gold. But that is just part of the way Financial Markets work. That is how gold is going to be owned going forward. By itself doesnt mean that the march 2 almost 2000 the 2000 almost validity. Jonathan why is it different from 2011 . Michael you didnt have a massive explosion of Monetary Policy locally. You were unwinding some of the qe in the united states. It really relied on the idea edat the euro crisis mark the end of the fiat currency. The argument wasnt that strong in 2011. Where you are today, you went through a tough bear market between 2011 and 2016 for gold and silver. You have a lot of liquidations of positions. The reasons why people have gone into gold this time around have been different. People have been much more patient until the last few weeks going back into gold. My sense is they are semipermanent allocations. Gold has been able to carve out a portion of peoples fixed income allocations, which is something we started arguing for a couple of years ago. Jonathan they seem to be more comfortable because of where negative real yields are right now. How comfortable are you with where real yields are at the moment . Michael they are they are remarkably lower. If you want to look at the value of owning bonds, i dont think the bond market is about to blow up. I think people are going to be patient with it. Yields andt real even absolute yields are due for owning Something Else. Gold is the most obvious Something Else available to you as a fixed income investor. Jonathan michael, great to catch up with you. The relationship between the bond market, the low yields you speak to at the front end, the nominal yield, and the real yields deeply negative, really supporting Precious Metals. Tom they are supporting Precious Metals, but are they supporting equities as well . The yield comparison, we have never seen this gap between even lousy yields or tangible 2 and 3 yields dividends, rather, and where we are on yields right now. The disparity is extort me is extraordinary. Doubt, youithout a have people considering that the allocation now is where you get your income because the fed is in the business. Lisa stocks are now fixed income. How many people are saying that the dividend from stocks are preferable to highyield . That is where people are going. It completely changes the game. I wonder how much that is underpinning the moving equities. Jonathan we are down 21 points in the s p, and we will get your Economic Data in america. U. S. Gdp expected to come in deeply negative, perhaps the worst print we have seen since records started, going back to the 1940s. Jobless claims in america as well. The data drops in 20 minutes. From new york, this is bloomberg. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. Negotiations resumed today on a compromise coronavirus release plan. The Trump Administration and Congressional Democrats are nowhere close to an agreement, under pressure because millions of americans will lose supplemental Unemployment Insurance this week. White house chief of staff mark meadows sees little chance for a stopgap measure that would extend those benefits. The number of americans killed by coronavirus has now gone over 150,000. Death tolls surged to records in california, florida, and texas. The new wave of infections that begin in june appears to have level off that began in june appears to have leveled off. A vaccine print today group of primates with a single shot in germanys economy plunged into a record slump in the second quarter. Output fell 10. 1 , the most since germany went to quarterly gdp reports in 1970. Indicators signal that growth has returned, but unemployment remains high. Ab inbev sold more than expected in the second quarter, despite the coronavirus lockdown. The parent of budweiser returns to growth in june after crashing by about 1 3 in the previous quarter. Go minutes ago, nasa launched its most ambitious river yet. Ambitious rover yet. Perseverance will look full signs of life will look for signs of life on mars. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. This is bloomberg. In many areas, we are behind our competitors. The most popular messaging service in the u. S. Is i message. The most popular app for video is youtube. The fastestgrowing platform is google. For every dollar spent on advertising in the u. S. , less than 0. 10 is spent with us. Jonathan how to lose friends and alienate people, and bookstores everywhere by mark zuckerberg. [laughter] unbelievable. Just throwing everybody under the bus. Tom i saw a little bit of it. I didnt watch every minute of it like lisa did. These guys are in their own that have the haves participated with them loves it. And everyone else, republicans and democrats come are going, say what . Jonathan i agree with you. Sundarajan,in arun leonard stern school of business professor. Was all just a spectacle . Arun i think the tone of the hearing was very different from any of the past hearings that we have had about big tech. Certainly a little more aggressive, a little more negative, but also, from congresss point of view, much more informed. This is not about how you earn money from your advertising. Many numbers of congress probed deep into specific issues relating to market power, predatory pricing. That made me feel that they were far better informed than in any hearing that has occurred in the past. There were lots of misconceptions as well, but overall, i think it is a turning point for big tech regulation, and we have entered a new phase. Tom you came out of a rochester graduate school combine, so you have seen the collapse of a traditional economy in western new york, whether it is buffalo, rochester. You can say that about anywhere else in the country. Your book cover is maybe the most courageous i have seen. The end of employment and the rise of groundbased capitalism. How bad is the end of employment . That is what these politicians were really talking about, wasnt it . Arun the end of employment is different from the end of work. I think part of the point i am making here is that a lot of work that occurs in the future will not come packaged as a fulltime job that we got use to in the 20th century, but will have a much greater fraction of entrepreneurship. In many ways, the story that the platforms told yesterday was one of, you know, we are in an economy where youve got millions of sellers on amazon, tens of millions of Small Businesses being supported by advertising on google. If you move away from the big four, there are millions of restaurants delivering on uber eats and door dash. So this economy is going to pervade our future of work. One of the things that was striking to me about yesterdays testimony was the misconception that somehow platforms hurt Small Business. While we have seen these local geographic economies implode, it isnt immediately clear to me that Small Business has been disproportionately hurt by the platforms. In many ways, i think they are shifting a lot of Economic Activity away from larger to midsize players and towards millions of Small Businesses. Lisa this is a very important point. One line of questioning yesterday was the idea that this that these platforms are rigged in favor of certain companies, namely the platforms themselves and their own proprietary brands, thing about amazon. What do you think about that thinking about amazon. What do you think about that. . Broadly, it has to do with the limits we need to place on marketbased power. I dont think a convincing case was made that the platforms are somehow overtly or explicitly favoring their own products. Is following a long tradition of other retailers in creating store brands. I think a lot of what happens in the next few months, looking at are they somehow disadvantaging Small Businesses by looking at a , isuct and then copying it apple ios somehow slowing down the performance of competing apps while speeding up their own , broadly, tim cook said it is very hard to Sell Software before the app store came along. You need to get it shrinkwrapped and into a retailer. Now you have millions of developers who have access to the app store, the google play store. So the idea that these things are bad for Small Business and competition, the devil will be in the details on how they have taken specific actions to suppress particular Small Businesses. Lisa to your point, jeff bezos say and unlike industries that are winner take all, there is room in retail for many winners. We are going to be getting earnings from apple, amazon, and alphabet after the bell today. Are you looking for some selfregulatory measures that will crimp profitability to get ahead of any potential regulation from washington . Arun absolutely. I think a lot of the purpose of hearings like this is to create regulation if the platforms dont do something themselves. If you think about what society has done, we have given these platforms a tremendous amount of power. Government like power, with censorship, with i. D. Systems, with copyrights and intellectual property. Facebook is backing its own currency, surveillance. So we can suddenly say now, we are unhappy with the status quo, and we are going to come in with a big stick and make you change your behavior. No nationstate government has the power to do that. The real solution is going to be selfregulatory. I think the platforms are being nudged in the right direction to make changes by the specter of Big Government regulation. Best solution for society is for the platforms to take matters into their own hands and say, here are the changes we are going to make. Here are the limits we are going to place on the power a market place creator has in being a supplier. The limits we are going to place on predatory pricing, on privacy. Because they are better informed than any Government Entity about what is possible. They are closest to the action. I think that is the future we are going to see unfold in the next two or three years. Jonathan we are lucky to have you on the show today. We appreciate you. We are five minutes away from the scores on one of the worst quarterly gdp numbers we are ever going to see in this country. Tom for those of you on radio and television that partition this, theres the one week claim , continuing claims, and also something i look at, the fourweek moving average of the one week statistic. Jonathan claims set to tick a little bit higher. Next. Int is we are off by 0. 8 . This is bloomberg surveillance. Jonathan from new york city for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance live on bloomberg tv and radio. Live alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. The Economic Data dropping any moment. Lets get to jobless claims first. Here is Michael Mckee. Michael the question is how bad was it, and how bad will it be. We see an increase in jobless claims. 1,434,000. Months an increase on the and increase of 12,000. We see an increase in jobless claims during the month. The total number of people getting jobless benefits false to 30 million 202,000 if you consider that good news that 30 Million People still have a claim on some sort of unemployment benefit from the united states. How bad was it . Here is the gdp number. The first number we have out. Gdpn annualized basis, falls 32. 9 . That is better than we anticipated. The consensus was for 34. 5 . This is the worst number ever by magnitudes, the worst we ever saw and a quarter was 1. 9 in 2008 and 1949. A terrible number on gdp. We are waiting for the rest of the gdp breakdown to drop because it all comes across live. , consumeronsumption spending down 34. 6 on the month. Core pcee index down 1. 1 . These are quarterly numbers. The fed does not pay as much attention. We will get the numbers for june tomorrow morning and that will tell us much more about where inflation is. We are waiting for the gdp numbers to come out. I am looking at the number. We still have only the First Quarter numbers up on the Commerce Department release. We are still waiting for a breakdown. That is ok. Lets get on a data point that is worrying. Continuing claims. That is not enough. That is dreadful. 17,018,000. It shows people going back onto the continuing claims roles. Restaurants may have opened and then all of the governors had to close them again so people are back to getting more jobless claims. That number is delayed one week. That is older than the current claims number. Tom you are on the back end of the zoom press conference with the chairman, and he nailed it on the lower longer delicacy. Weked as a chairman are reframing lower for longer. How far out is mike mckee . , 2023, 2030 . Where are you . Michael that is a hard question. The fed is out until the end of 2022. Jay powell says the virus is in control. If we were to get a vaccine sometime in 2021 and people felt confident and went back to spending, you could see the economy snap back quickly in the fed would have to react to the possibility of inflation and faster growth. We will see what happens going forward. Part of the problem for the fed as they are in this environment where they do not know what is going to happen. There are 70 different possibilities. Lisa one reason you are so good is you can look at the headline numbers andy dick under and speak to the churn under the employment figures. Have a is this a result of people are employed, not employed, refired and close down or reengaged, or is this a result from permanent layoffs . Michael it is probably a mixture of all of that because people went back to work and got kicked out again. We are seeing more and more Companies Start to close up permanently. Yelp keeps track of companies that have closed. Who say 55 of those reported closed are now closed permanently. I will ask along tom keene question so he can look at the summary just came out. Slowly andrame it give Michael Mckee a chance. The payrolls report in a weeks time is the most unpredictable payrolls report we have had in a while. Michael mckee will speak to the survey. I imagine a lot of people are looking at the continuing claims number and wondering what estimates to put in next week. Could we get a negative print for july . Michael sure we could, there are some people who think we will get it. It will be important next week to look at all of the other indicators we get, including the ism numbers and see what they say about hiring and we will see what the adp number says. People will try to construct something from this. As jay powell said, the numbers on employment in Small Companies that the fed has been looking at have gone down over the course of july. One number in the early part of the month showed 4. 1 Million People losing jobs. We do not know how may people got jobs to offset that, but it does suggest a possibility for a negative number. Michael yield coming in. Clearly some nuance. 30 year bond at 1. 200. Michael mckee, thanks for the wisdom and the effort at the press conference yesterday. Asill read you some numbers we bring in david kelly of jp morgan. David kelly knows the numbers. The animal spirit line of nominal gdp long ago and far away. 4. 1 , backr number to 4 . 3. 9 . Then it was terrible. 3. 4 . Kelly, statistic, david 34. 3 nominal gdp good that is unsustainable. What gets us out of this besides the cure of the virus . Is there a policy prescription that can lessen this pain . David you can lessen the pain by doing two things. You have to make sure you cannot have more layoffs on state and local government. If you look at the aftermath of the great financial crisis, five years of job loss at state and local governments because they cannot balance the books. If you will spend federal money, spend federal money by giving it a state and local governments so they do not have to lay off workers. Second, you have to get the unemployment right. Because for ach lot of lowwage workers they are losing money by working. Zero is the law zero is the wrong number. A settlement of Something Like 300 that will give people incentive to get back to work while avoiding widespread povertys, those are the two things the government could do to alleviate the situation. The number one thing you have to do is control the virus. I remember many years ago and economists said it was the economy stupid, now it is the virus, stupid. We will get a bounce of gdp in the third quarter, but this is not a vshaped recovery. This is a v interrupted. When will we see the true pain of the unemployment figures we are getting right now in consumption in the bleed through to default, and some of the economic pain that has been forestalled by the enhanced Unemployment Benefits and other measures . David if we do not get another package we will see it quickly. I think we will continue to see over the second half of the year , more traditional recessionary indications of more bankruptcies, Companies Held in because the ppp will go bankrupt. We will see a lot of that. Hopefully you will have a phase reopening of the economy and more federal money to try and alleviate things. Unfortunately, policy is not equityd to protect the of Small Business owners. To me that is one of the biggest tragedies. People who have put a lifetime into building a Small Business will just get wiped out by this thing and the government is not finding a way to help them. There is a lot of pain to come. We will get a vaccine in 2021. I think we will get multiple vaccines. At some stage we will pull together and decide we will rid ourselves of the virus, then we will get back to normal. Fully understand the reaction function of the federal reserve. What i do not understand is the reaction function of investors. How do you think investors respond if we get a negative payroll sprint . You will probably see some selloff in the empty market theres not much more i think congress will do. If we got the print, that would be right. If you go back five weeks ago and look at the unemployment pains the third week in june and compare it with july, we still have a 2 million person reduction in continuing claims. I think we might get a small positive on payrolls for the month of july, then a negative one for august. The broad picture is i do not think the labor market will get much worse, but will not get much better. We still have over 10 unemployment as we go to 2021. Jonathan david kelly, great to catch up with you. Michael mckee giving us more color on the gdp print. You and i talking about the annualized approach in the united states. On the annualized basis we are down 33 for the second quarter. If you want the apples to apples comparison, compare that to germany, also 10 . It is a big contraction for this economy. This concept that it is a v interrupted, maybe some people think it is worse. This is the right wing of the v rolling over into a much shallower company. There is some evidence in the last two weeks. Tom you know i do not like the letters. What we can say without question is the v has evaporated. Jonathan payrolls next week. We will hear a lot more about the probability of a negative print for the month of july. Lisa u. S. To key question. What is going to be the market response. Everyone is you asked a key question, what is going to be the market response. The is the struggle, divorce between market response as well as the fundamental data we are getting looks pretty bleak. Jonathan the gdp data is terrible, but i hope in washington the focus is on the recent numbers. They will say they already responded to the ugliness of the second quarter. They need to respond to what is happening right now, this recovery slowing down. Tom david kelly had a compromised number. I do note i do not know what the appropriate number is for a paycheck. You have 600 to zero and dr. Kelly said find a midpoint. There has to be a lot of those conversations in washington or millions of people get crushed. Jonathan pressures on the head the payrolls report. Equity futures down 26. Up next, a conversation you do not want to miss. Raghuram rajan. From new york city, this is bloomberg. Ritika with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. Trump administration and Congressional Democrats are no closer to a compromise on a virus relief plan. The pressure to act is building. White house chief of staff mark meadows sees little chance of a stopgap deal that would cover only those jobless benefits. There is an agreement for federal agents to leave portland, oregon. A disagreement about when. Oregons governor says the agents will begin leaving today but the acting Homeland Security cheap says therell be no pullout until it is clear local Law Enforcement can prevent violence at the federal courthouse. That has been the target of angry protesters. Ruth Bader Ginsburg is in a new york City Hospital undergoing a minimally invasive procedure to address an issue with a stent. Ginsburg is 87. She was hospitalized earlier this month to clean out a stent. She recently disclosed she was diagnosed with a fifth bout of cancer. In gronk, the government in hong kong, the government has barred prodemocracy activists from running in the election. Came hours after Hong Kong Police arrested four student activists for making online comments that allegedly violated that law. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. The path of the economy will depend, to a high extent, on the course of the virus and on the measures we take to keep it in check. The data are pointing to a slowing in the pace of the recovery. I want to stress it is too early to say how large that is and how sustained it will be. Jonathan we are getting a low bit more color on how much that economy is slowing down. From new york city, good morning. I am jonathan ferro. Getkeene, it is a moment to the sensible deep thinkers on the program and thinking about what is happening in the economy. Ill be catching up with Mohamed Elerian. Tom the conversation is what we live for. It is great to have Mohamed Elerian with us. I heard from him this morning. He was dazzled at how the red slow isarted slow the word he used. Driving forward the conversation for us, we spoke with Kenneth Rogoff from Harvard University on a study of Digital Currencies. We will touch on that quickly with rival of roche on with regular roche on with raghuram rajan. What is the distinction of your study . What does it drive forward about how technology is changing money . Currencieshe digital are a revolution. For the first time in 300 years, we can replace cash with something digital. We have already replaced bank accounts, we have digital bank accounts. Think of everything Going Digital and what possibilities that creates, but also what challenges. If the government issues this digital currency, the amount of data it will collect, the amount of privacy it will violate, and what concerns that raises. Those are what are made possible by these new technologies. Cryptocurrencies, government Digital Currencies, that is what this report is about. Lisa when we talk about Digital Currencies, one aspect is technology and creating a digital form of what we already have. It is another to say we are debasing existing currencies, lets come up with an alternative that can preserve its value in tandem with gold. Which side are you on for the most plausible of the future of Digital Currencies . Raghuram it is the first. I think the idea of a private cryptocurrency which will forever maintain its value is interesting, but credible Central Banks have done that with fiat currencies. Once we convert that cash, the stuff you have in your wallet into something digital, what new possibilities arise and what challenges . How do we contain all of the concerns that emerge from that. That is what this is about. I must bring this up. For the first time in all my years i have taken the book of the summer a year ago and made it the book of the following summer. I have never done that before but i do it with your book, the third pillar, which is a primal scream for community in america and other societies. I want to talk about how the third pillar matters and i want to talk about what you have observed over the last three months in how we need to get away from our culture wars and back to community. Raghuram absolutely. Take the example of fighting the coronavirus. The countries that have been very successful, south korea, germany, typically have had a combination of a centralized approach, setting broad parameters, getting the funding, but also a decentralized approach where each region figures out what its issues are, how it deals with it specifically, and how it brings its resources to bear. There is a broader example. The way we can move ahead without upsetting each faction is to have a coherent central government, but also decentralized processes. Tom if we look at the faultlines of the market, i am seeing if yields come in. I will not do a data check to save time. As the market telling the fed what to do . Can the market drive us towards negative Interest Rates . Raghuram i think the fed is resistant and my sense is moving us negative, it will be the fed which will move us. I do not think it is the market. , i think it is a real activity on the ground moving the fed. It is a huge unknown, the coronavirus and how we deal with it. Everyone is sanguine about the vaccine coming soon. That will take time to rollout. There are tremendous uncertainties. The fed will be as supportive as possible. I do not think that support extends to going seriously negative. Lisa how concerning is it that the fed policies are propping up people that own stops, particularly the wealthier individuals and not giving that much to main street, just by function of the fed design. How concerning is that when we do not have a fiscal plan for washington . Fiscalm you do need a plan, but the support for main street is structured where the firms can take it. There is an issue, which is at what point does the fed allow the market to start resolving funds . If this continues for some time, there will be a number of unviable firms. At what point does the fed say we will not support as much as we can, we with withdrawal some of that support so the unviable firms can be pulled out of their misery. This will create space for the remaining firms and make them healthier. That issue has to be tackled eventually. I do not think now is the time, but the fed will have to start thinking about that the longer the pandemic rast the longer the pandemic lasts. Tom thank you so much. , anp of 30, working Group Important essay with Kenneth Rogoff. Bond check, futures 36. The curve up. 1172. Two year,. 54. 30 year bond well under 1. 20 . Lisa i think it is important to say 10 year yields are within fractions of basis points within new acord blows as we look toward a weaker economy. We also have political risk. President trump tweeting perhaps we should delay the vote, saying it will be a great embarrassment isthe u. S. If mailin voting peppered with inaccuracies and fraud. He is saying to lay the election until people can safely vote . Not a big move in markets. How will this be priced in as we get closer to november . Tom that has been floating around in the zeitgeist, and there it is from the president. Much more coming up. Mohamed elerian on bloomberg television. Paul sweeney and i will take a look at the knology view on bloomberg radio. Janet henry with hsbc. Look for her later on bloomberg tv. Futures negative. The vix up. 26. 30. This is bloomberg radio. This is bloomberg television. Jonathan from new york city for our viewers worldwide, good morning, good morning. The countdown to the open starts right now. 30 minutes until the opening bell. Equity futures down 1. 2 . A 10 year yield on a closing basis, sitting at record lows. Lets begin with the big issue. Theare nowhere close, words of white house chief of staff mark meadows into another day of talks on capitol hill. Chuck schumer lashing out. Tiedor schumer they are in a not because of the disunity in their caucus, because of their inability to gather votes, because the president says one thing one day and another thing the other day. We want to keep topping to them but they do not have anything to say. Jonathan Mitch Mcconnell remaining hopeful, saying many things happened in the last minute. Hope springs eternal we will reach an agreement on a broad basis or a narrow one. Joining us is kevin cirilli. Ken