The moon right now. We will do that in a moment. But it is allencompassing, this political battle in washington. I am just going to go to the round number. How do you explain to 30 million americans that there is not a check in the mail . Jonathan you cant, and that is the problem. Insurance. Employment payrolls friday, the unpredictable print, and i think the most unpredictable in quite a while. Lisa politically, it makes no sense not to extend the enhanced lemon benefits, and yet they are still negotiating. They have already expire. What i am watching is how big the deficit is going to get area the u. S. Treasury department is going to be laying out there barring plan deficit is going to get. U. S. Treasury department is going to be laying out there borrowing plan. Watchingso going to be President Trump. Sorry, i am going to talk about tiktok. Hes going to give guidance on u. S. Ate of tiktoks operations. It is not enough to offload the u. S. Operations. President trump is also the closing a discomfort with the idea of microsoft purchasing the unit. I think that will be something very important to follow. Jonathan we can talk about a range of things this morning. We will catch up with Kevin Cirilli a little bit later. In the equity market, equity futures on the s p 500 and the last 30 minutes or so starting to lift higher, up about 16 points. Your outperformance coming from the nasdaq. It is the aaron judge of the Global Equity market. Tom oh my god. [laughter] jonathan the dollar come back here, unlike the red sox. And the verdict is in, growth is going to be soft for a year. 49 for wti crude. Should we just go there and get it done with . Aaron judge just crushing your red sox through the weekend. What happened . Tom what happened here is talent. The first time i saw aaron judge, i was in rockstar seats down by the deck circle. The i will never forget is way he moved. I have never seen a big die move like that, with one exception, and that is that guy from the netherlands that plays in the back of the field for liverpool. When you are 10years old and you show up to play with the major leagues, that is kind of like aaron judge and everyone else. Tom for those of you worldwide, it is something, absolutely. Jonathan anyway, we will move on. Show and myto the manners are gone. Jonathan good to catch up with you, sir, as always. His month is not quiet why is it common the market why is it called in why is it calm in the market, given what is going on . Dean it is all coming to a head with negotiations between democrats and republicans, and ultimately the pathway for the markets, just given how substantially bad the backdrop is economically comedy pathway is going to be a political one. Tom i want to go to the heart of your expertise, the dynamic of the vix. Everyone is rationalizing themselves that this is some new level. Is the huget, or surprise of the next 18 months that we get a bull market and the vix crushes back down to where it wasnt brewery of this year . Dean we are certainly in a new regime of volatility. There was so much destruction of capital that had been almost permanent in markets in the postcrisis, where selling volatility was extremely profitable for lengthy periods of time. A lot of that got wiped out, so you have a new market clearing price for the vix or voluntarily that is higher than it was. , something inr early november that is incredibly consequential for markets, if you look at the vix, theres also these vix futures that trade. If you look at the fixed future tied to the u. S. Election, it is substantially elevated. It is at 32, and that is the market expressing extreme uncertain around the potential of a democratic sweep, of a biden presidency being full blast, and the realities that the market may have to face up to something that is just not nearly as market friendly as trump has been. Lisa i want to go to this idea that there seems to be an incredible amount of complacency at a time of incredible uncertain. Are there parts of the market where you are seeing signs of unease . If you look at the cyclical parts of the market, that is where we have not seen nearly the recovery. That has been consistent. There is a bifurcation of market outcomes right now area you got the top three stocks in the qqq that constitute 35 of the entire market cap. What i would say is ironically, it is in some of these high flyers where there has been discomfort being expressed, and he really wouldnt normally see this. As these stocks levitate to alltime highs, the vol is traveling up with them. Youre seeing microsoft, amazon, apple, certainly names like tesla, as the stocks go up significantly, the option prices and implied volatility levels are rising as well. There is historical precedent to this which makes me a little uncomfortable, which is the tech bubble itself. Difficult to compare anything to how outrageous the tech bubble was in terms of its magnitude, but you saw the same dynamic, i was just looking at microsoft, the performance from 1998 to 2000, which was incredible. The stock had an incredible run, but the volatility traveled higher as the stock was traveling higher. Saying it is the market this thing is getting more speculative, and i want to stay long this story. But better to use the options than the stock. So the demand for the options is increasingly implied volatility. It says to me that there is probably more to go intact land more to go in tech land, but the speculative nature of the rally has me uncovered. Jonathan is it harder to rotate away from those names now, or harder to be long in the lows of march . Dean i think it is difficult in both circumstances. A little bit harder now. The bifurcation is something that you know, people use the s p 500 as a placeholder to be long. They also use it as the most obvious hedging instrument, and the reality is beneath the surface are these dramatically anderent stories performance profiles, and never before have we seen the leadership so substantial relative to the other things that are left behind. Tech think being out in right now is a very challenging decision that you have to make on an active basis that puts the performance of your portfolio at substantial risk. That is where price defines behavior, and people are left long tech at increasingly lofty valuations, which is what happening now. Jonathan where do you see the convergence as well . What have you got your eye on . Dean i think treasuries are the glue for a lot of this story. If you look at the performance vs. The kre, the spread is just gigantic, and it ties back to lower rates. Techan justify being long at increasingly lofty valuations when rates are so low. On the flipside, things like kre, regional banks that are , thist to Slower Growth is proven to be on the short end of the stick. I want to get to august as well really quickly. Weve mentioned that august is a bad month for markets, and i think that is the case. You do have things like china in 2015. Youve got 2011, the sovereign debt crisis and the u. S. Debt ceiling issue. Now weve got this other political event for the u. S. My take is that this is in the realm of something that needs to be solved because either side would take such a blow with respect to the outcome from people in terms of how they viewed whether democrats or republicans were supporting them. I know the differential is significant. Maybe this is more contrarian, but i think we are in for a pretty sideways august. I just dont see the case for a substantial blow up in the next month or so. Jonathan lets catch up in a couple of weeks or so. Dean curnutt of Macro Risk Advisors to kick things off of the month of august, typically always volatile. But to deans point, there is this faith in the mutually assured destruction for both sides if they dont make a deal on fiscal policy. Tom i think for our listener this week as they go to the jobs report friday, with mr. Kaplan coming up, these two competing stories. Right now youve got nasdaq to the moon come of a be off of the google news this morning. Whatever. Be a 2 going to trillion company before you exit to prepare for the open. Jonathan maybe a couple of days away, me might be the days away, we might be there. We may get a negative print in this friday payrolls report. Lisa theres a disconnect between the bond market at record lows, stocks rally in. At what point does the disconnect come to some sort of head with fundamentals . Jonathan coming up on this program, dallas fed president robert kaplan. From new york city this morning, good morning to you all. Hearn on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is bloomberg surveillance. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. Microsoft is trying to salvage a deal to buy the u. S. Operations of tiktok. They spoke to President Trump about how to secure the administrations blessing to buy the music video app. The president has floated the idea of an outright and on tiktok on National Security grounds. The white house and Congressional Democrats are still far apart on a new Coronavirus Relief bill. Republicans have proposed it and bury extension of the jobless benefits that expired last week. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says republicans are being condescending when they suggest the payment is too high and should be scaled back. The u. K. Is reviewing options for fighting coronavirus flareups. According to the sunday times, a lot them is being considered if cases continue to spike. Imposed ins northwest england show that the government will act when and where necessary. The japanese owner of 7eleven has agreed to buy Marathon Speedway gas stations for 21 billion. They are expecting that the extended footprint in the u. S. Will help growth. Has completed a triumphant return to u. S. Space travel. The Spacex Dragon capsule splashed down in the gulf of mexico. T caps global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. We proposed a oneweek extension at 600 so that while we negotiate a longerterm solution, at least all of those people dont lose their money, and i am surprised that the democrats wont agree to that. They are insistent on having this has part of a larger deal. Jonathan treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin on abc this week erie of the democrats will say we wanted to start these talks months ago on abc this week. The democrats will say we wanted to start these talks months ago. Alongside tom keene and Lisa Abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. After four months of gains on the s p 500, we kick off august with the morning of gains of 15 points. We advanced 0. 5 . Heres the dollar come back, really interesting given the dollar weakness over the last month. At one point on fridays session, we had a 1. 19 handle. Down two figures since then. Tom still no to the deterioration in the 10 year tips at 1. 01 on the inflationadjusted case. Just extraordinary. Just to help us with the many stories of washington, Kevin Cirilli on a monday. There it was, calendar item, beginning of august, as republicans start to extract themselves from President Trump from President Trump. Thettle, bitty article i republican strategy. Kevin i was shocked by Senate Majority leader Mitch Mcconnell really allowing for there to be just a little bit of space and wiggle room between Senate Republicans and President Trump. But honestly, i think it is because he is looking at the map in the down ballot races on november 3, and looking to see how he could be able to hold together a republican coalition. But it is striking when you hear secretary mnuchin on the sunday shows still not able to get to some type of short time deal with Speaker Pelosi. Tom what is your timeline of when this aim of chicken ends for Senate Republican . Orit tuesday at 11 00 a. M. , is it this silliness i hear about september . Kevin i think the way you describe it as a game of political chicken is completely accurate. A couple of weeks ago, i said they might likely have to go into the first week of august, and that the intensity surrounding these negotiations would likely continue. I think what everyone is looking for right now is for some type of breakthrough between secretary pelosi between Speaker Pelosi and secretary mnuchin. However, i think to the government shutdowns predating the trump administration, back in the obama years. This could really drag on for there not be that sense of urgency. Jonathan it is the ugly part of negotiations where it is a battle of ob battle of optics and not substance. The republicans do not look good. They came to this late, they started talks late. So they say to the democrats, shortterm extension. The democrats say we have been waiting for months. We want a longterm deal. At some point, the optics turn and the democrats start to look bad for dragging their feet as well. How sustainable is Speaker Pelosis position to say no shortterm deal . Kevin i dont think it is that sustainable, to be completely frank with you. I talked with centrist democrats who are scratching their heads and saying weve got to get some type of approach here. As you just pointed out, they are not they are fighting over a host of different money allocations and whatnot, but right now, over the weekend and the past 72 hours, the fight has been over process, piecemeal or a total package. I think that is going to lead to bubble frustration because at the end of the day, theres a lot of republicans and immigrants negotiating, but there are a lot of rankandfile members who dont have any type of plan to sell to their constituents right now. Once those constituents are on the hook, whether it is the end up limit benefits or whether it is small and mediumsized business employees who are scratching their heads about a lack of certain to coming from washington and a lack of liquidity for their employers, that is when things are going to get really intense. Debate isstimulus really the main story, but then we have this side story of tiktok and President Trump potentially banning the company from u. S. Operations. How much should we Pay Attention to this verse is a distraction away from that main issue . Kevin i think in terms of tiktok being a viable social media platform that impacts the economy and daytoday use, not much. It is a bunch of youth doing the mac arena. Na. Ever doing the macare however, the president that it sets is that the u. S. And mr. Risch and is willing to get into big tech the u. S. Administration is willing to get into big tech fights. As i talk on capitol hill about a working coalition of nonpartisanship in terms of u. S. china relations, this is one tool in the policy arsenal that america can utilize in chinese backed businesses to really impact their access to the u. S. Market, not just in terms of supply chains and parts. We have seen that the medical space. But also in the technological space as well. Cedentsnk the pre enormous lease significant as you look at the intensity of u. S. And china relations. Jonathan everyone aggressively searching for the Kevin Cirilli tiktok account now. [laughter] microsoft appreciates the u. S. Government and President Trumps personal involvement as it continues to develop Strong Security protections for the country. This is exactly the direction of travel big tech once washington to go in, to see them as part of the solution, not part of the problem. Talked to, and when i sources at the state department, when i talk to democrats on the intelligence committee, they are saying, look at the 5g network that the u. S. Has tried to really bulldoze through with europe in trying to get europe and western allies back on board value, it is anstates in terms app we can all make jokes about, but the strategy, thats what lisa and you are tapping into. The strategy behind it is really where the longterm significance lies. Tom youre starting strong, kevin, like the boston red sox. It is time now for a surveillance correction. Lisa from fargo emailed in and tell them, it is the renegade. [laughter] lisa i cant find it, but it is not the macarena. Jonathan kevin, run. Kevin i would like to. [laughter] jonathan Kevin Cirilli, thank you. More coming up on this later if you want to see more of lisas dancing on bloomberg giphy on bloomberg tv. Lisa no. [laughter] jonathan coming up on this program, ethan harris of b of a securities on why this fridays paper report is so unpredictable. Equity futures up 15 points on the s p. We advanced 0. 5 . From new york, this is bloomberg. Jonathan from new york city, this is bloomberg surveillance. We are live on bloomberg tv and radio. Alongside tom keene and Lisa Abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Its Lisa Abramowicz degenerating over the weekend into an 11yearold. [laughter] [laughter] she promises she is done with that. We will check back in later on tiktok. We had some way to the first trading day in the month of august, typically a volatile one. It is quiet this morning. 0. 54 . Tenyear up to eurodollar 1. 19 in fridays session. The euro coming back down 0. 4 . Payrolls friday just. A couple of days away. Ive got to say, its a big one. Conversation to conversation through the weekend and this morning, it is gearing towards the friday report, and before that the claims report. The dollar, i think it is really extraordinary the quiet that is out there. Strongople come of the dollar, the resilient dollar people finally having their moment. Jonathan i always think it is too premature to see a 4 , 5 move in the dollar index. Index is still north of 90. To say it is the structural move youve been waiting for is just too early to make those conclusions. Tom marvin barths at barclays agreeing. Right now, we begin our economic coverage on the simulcast with ethan harris, at bank of america with authority on the transfer and greenspan to bernanke his wonderful book, and also absolutely nailing the nonvshaped recovery of 20072008. No major house did better than bank of america on that call. Once again, we dont have a vshaped recovery. What kind is it . Ethan well, we have a two month v followed probably by three months of l, and then hopefully we start picking up again. Clearly, the resurgence in the virus caused a little bit of pulling back in the economy in july, and we expect things to be kind of flat for the next few months. Tom what is your unemployment statistic for friday . How much of a mystery is that statistic . Of thewell come employment report could be anything. As we know, congress have done terrible job of forecasting it because there is such a cross current of firing and hiring in the labor market. Our guess is that the and implement rate dips below 11 , so it comes down to 10. 7 . To put that in perspective, that would be worse than at any month during the Great Recession of 20082009. It is great that it is coming down, but there is to a long way to go. Jonathan did you ever think you would have a payrolls guess of positive one million, and also right in the line afterwards the risk of a negative print . How unprecedented is this moment . Ethan it is a product of the unprecedented nature of the crisis. You have companies that laid off 20 million people, and now they are hiring some of them back. The data we look at, that economists look at that is supposed to tell us what these , justs are going to be help. T it is really ununprecedented volatility. Jonathan any seasonal quirks we should be focused on . Ethan you dont have the usual shutdown of the auto sector in the summer, so that could help a little bit. Atve got payrolls coming in one million. I think the consensus is a little higher than that. But those kind of smaller seasonal stories are overshadowed by all the volatility in the number. I would view million is ok. Payroll survey is taken fairly early in the month, so it is reflecting how the economy is doing in late june and early july. Things have weakened, so it is slightly old news. Lisa it is quite clear the labor market as we getting. Labor market is weakening. Does it matter if they dont come to a deal in the next two weeks or three weeks, if it takes them a month . How big with the object be on the economy how big will the impact be on the economy . Ethan every delay, it gets a lot worse. People getting unplugged and benefits are on life support ash getting Unemployment Benefits are on life support. Unemployment benefits are on life support. It is a benefit for the unemployed and the retail sector, which has done pretty well. Every week that there is no extension is another week where they are cutting back on spending and getting a little more desperate, so the timing is very important. I would hope that they dont cut them too much, that they cut them moderately. I hope theres more than just that. The economy needs a lot of support right now. We are only halfway back to normal. Its got to be 1. 5 trillion dollars, not 1 trillion. And it needs to be targeted well to the people who are most distressed. They are the ones who are going to spend money, so the size, the speed, the targeted nature of the package, they are all important. Right now, i am quite worried. Lisa you have fiscal hawks among some of the republicans. Not all deficits are the same. We will get a sense of how whenthe deficit will get the Treasury Department releases their financing needs. Can you give us a sense of how much lower the deficit will be if there is a successful stimulus versus, say, not having a stimulus now and a Slower Growth trajectory Going Forward . To solve are not going the budget deficit cutting spending now. That is just risking driving the economy back into collapse. So there is a balancing act here. There is no choice. We are either going to have a bigger deficit because the economy is terrible, because we are spending more money to support a vulnerable part of the economy. You can on the margin maybe reduce the deficit a little bit by cutting the corners. You certainly can reduce the impact on the deficit if you are smart about the way you distribute any. For example, these checks that are being sent to households, these stimulus checks, most people get those, and unless they are unemployed, they are putting those in the bank. That is just a handoff from the government to the private sector. If you want to stimulate activity and get a good bang for your buck, send it to the part of the economy that mediate. The employee ash send it to the parts of the economy that need it send it to the parts of the economy that needed. These broader stimulus programs just dont work very well. We know the mono that we know that much of that money doesnt go into the economy. It just goes into peoples savings accounts. Jonathan arguably, these enhanced tenant limit benefits have expired. What is the damage they will do to the early august data . Ethan it is going to take a while to see it in the numbers. Each we get passes, it is going to get a lot more noticeable. Presumably, people have been getting this money because a lot of them are getting more and unemployment than they would had they been working. Hopefully they saved a small amount so they can kind of survive weaker to. A week or two. I dont think you politics list in terms of spending. I think you just gradually weaken. By the end of august, if they havent passed anything, you will see a substantially slower consumer. We are talking about a weekly benefit of about 10 billion. Even for a big economy like the u. S. , that is a big number. It is going to be kind of a sliding down intuitive activity in those retail sales a activity in in those retail sales numbers. Is as the months goes on frankly unimaginable, whatever anybodys politics is. How do you adjust q3, and particularly, how do you adjust q4 gdp if we go along . Ethan first of all, we dont think there is going to be any real growth in the Third Quarter. Everyones got a high gdp growth number for the third or come but that is because we ended the Second Quarter so strong. We had huge growth in may and june, so the launching off point for the quarter looks high compared to the prior quarter, but weve got basically flat activity as we see a small pickup in jobs. What you are going to do then is cut into that even more. It is almost impossible to get a negative gdp number for the Third Quarter, given that we start off at a higher level. But as you get into the Fourth Quarter, you are hoping that you get a Third Quarter to be 20 pickup because of the defective june on the data. You are hoping and Fourth Quarter, you get 5 or 10 growth rate. But we could in the Fourth Quarter get a zero or even a negative number. I think they will deliver. Before,this soap opera and once people start really hurting and then they come to a decision, maybe it requires that the markets get a little bit upset because it takes too long, but eventually i think they will come to a deal. I just worry that they will wait too long and it will will targeted. Jonathan ethan, great to catch up with you. Ethan harris of bank of america securities. Inton estimate going friday, 1. 5 million. The range is already huge. 4 million is the highest estimate. That comes from a friend of the program, Ian Shepherdson at pantheon. Another friend of the program at barclays just throwing out a zero. That is his estimate for this coming friday. Gives you an idea of the range. Tom i walk by the orbit of Michael Mckee this morning, who is way better than this that i will ever be. He really emphasized complete uncertainty into thursday and friday as well. It is going to be eventful, to say the least. Mastech 100 futures through 11,000. Nasdaq 100 futures through 11,000. Jonathan up 0. 5 on the s p. 1. 19 friday for a moment. Bianchi ofrah evercore isi. This is bloomberg. Ritika with the first word news, im r im ritika gupta. Givingte house is microsoft 45 days to buy the u. S. Arm of tiktok. At one point, President Trump floated the idea of venting the app of banning the app out right on National Security grounds. They spoke to the president yesterday to try to get his blessing on a deal. Official Neel Kashkari says that the country cant afford americans who are out of work. He says that in a month to six week he says that another four to six weeks of lockdown could lead to better, recovery. Fromg from House White HouseCoronavirus Task force advisor dr. Birx, saying the virus is extreme nearly widespread across rural and urban areas. She says america is only move during the summer vacation, and the public needs to take more precaution. Nobel peace prize winner john hume has died. He was one of the chief architects of the 1998 good friday agreement that brought peace to northern ireland. It ended the conflict among Irish Parliament regrouped and security forces. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. While historically we would worry about rocking up so much debt, we are generating savings ourselves. That Means Congress has the resources to support those who are hurt most. Congress should use this opportunity to support the american economy. If we get the economy growing, we would able to pay off the debt. Jonathan Neel Kashkari, minneapolis that president , on cbs face the nation. Good morning to you all. Alongside tom keene and Lisa Abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Dont dori about it dont worry about it. That is the message from the minneapolis fed this morning. In america. 0. 55 tom it shows the unusualness of the moment, and in the bond market and with a surging tech market, ithe equity shows how unusual this election cycle is in the policy within it. Sarah bianchi out of harvard has been a student of this from president clinton and president obama. She is this ed hyman at evercore isi in their acclaimed Washington Research group. Theres, like, eight stories to go on. Were talking about whether to have you on for a halfhour or minutes or 40 minutes. We dont have that time. I want you to engage the disarray of republicans on capitol hill and down the street on pennsylvania avenue. Sarah theres quite a bit of disarray, and we always thought this would be the most difficult package to get done, but i think it has exceeded our expectations. Mcconnell who is trying to solve for a divide in his caucus. Some people who dont want to spend again. Some folks who i think may be are even looking at november as a lost cause, and trying to position themselves for a book in primaries four republican primaries. On the others, hes got people like collins and the Colorado Senate race, people who need a deal here. The president i believe once a deal. I believe there is just a bit of cacophony there as well with the chief of staff and the treasury secretary. Tom theres are the minutia. I am sure you studied clash of civilizations and mentor hunting in. We have a clash between people who think government in crisis has duty, and people that inherently believe it is a swamp, and it is government that cannot do it. It is no good. Is it going to be business as usual forward, or do you worldly see some of new for government out of this pandemic . Sarah i think it is going to have to be the latter. Weve got some things coming up that only the government can do. How do you distribute a vaccine . How do you get this testing mess in order and help us supply . What is going to happen when the ui rolls off . Democracy, easy in a but i believe the American People understand right now that we are in a mess in part because our government did not work though. If it worked a little bit better, we might not be in such a mess. Lisa tom touched on the fissures in the republican party. How big are the fissures in the Democratic Party come up with the liberals and more center focused areas of the party that try to hash out what they are ok h giving into with public with republicans . Sarah i think policy and schumer are very unified i pelosi and schumer are very unified right now. Becausethats partly they are in the minority in general in this debate, and it is easier when you are negotiating in the context like that. If they were running the show, i think it would be a lot harder. Lisa i want to go to november and the potential for disputes regarding mailin votes. Given the fact that you have struggled both sides of public and private life, how big is electing risk at this is election risk at this point . Sarah i think the potential israel. Im not sure the markets are focused their the potential is real. I am not sure the markets are focused there. We are a very divided country. Campnk even the biden expects these poles to tighten. Some of these states are just going to come down to a number of votes, and they are going to dispute it. Tom sarah, i got to her when your morning. Youve got ive got to ruin your morning. Youve got clinton experience. Youve got obama experience. Are you on the vp list . If not, who is the most intelligent vp pick for Vice President biden . [laughter] sarah well, i dont want to make any news on my short list status today. The most intelligent pic is who he feels the most comfortable with governing. He understand that he understands that this is a partnership. Tom great, is that susan rice . Sarah you know, i think youve got to sort of be in those conversations with him to really have a feel for it. I dont know. It could be. I think hes got a lot of talented people that could sit well with him. I think on this one, i just think unless you are in and around it, all speculation is just idle speculation. Tom ed hyman is going, sarah nailed that. [laughter] jonathan under pressure from tom keene. Sarah, thank you. It is an unusual one, isnt it . Aoever the vp pick is, it is potential 2024 candidate as well. That is what is really interesting about this one. Tom absolutely, but it goes way beyond that. With the age of mr. Trump and mr. Biden, i have never seen this. I would have to go back and look at the 19th century. But what i know for certain is this moment for both candidates is really something. Jonathan that is why you have age is a huge factor in whoever he picks. Frome read this for you senator cruz. Who made this argument last week . Mark zuckerberg a facebook. We believe in values. Many other Tech Companies show these values, but theres no doubt that our values will win out. China is building its own version of the internet focused on very different ideas. Who wouldve thought Mark Zuckerberg would provide the rationale for microsoft to be able to buy to to buy tik tok . Tom but i guess they are buying it. That is the distinction. They are trying to. Tiktok,tiates for beijing where the private enterprise . Jonathan so far, i understand it at the private enterprise. Tom we butchered the renegade last time on tiktok. [laughter] jonathan this is the benefits of radio. Make it stop. Tom radio, you are loving it right now. [laughter] jonathan from new york city, this is bloomberg. You still have arguably the greatest of urchins between real echo diversions between real economic outcome. It is not going to be a downturn again. We are getting evidence that the recovery is tapering off. Yes, jobless claims, but not by that much. In the last hour, a lot