Set your agenda. Asian equities retreat for a fourth day on more concerns over chinas economy. And after strong us retail sales, add doubt that the feds inflation fight is finished. Uk headline inflation set to take a step lower today, but the pressure is on for the bank of england after the hottest wage growth on record. Plus, the Worlds Largest owner of stocks rebounds thanks to investments in big tech. Well break down the numbers from norways 1. 4 trillion Sovereign Wealth Fund. Well, good morning. Welcome to wednesday and its risk off this morning as concerns about inflation and growth weigh on markets, us futures are flat this morning after the s p 500, the nasdaq and the Dow Jones Industrial average all ended just off session lows yesterday. Equities finally showing a bit of worry this off year after year had us retail sales coming in above forecasts, along with home depot earnings for that matter, underscoring consumer resilience and bolstering, therefore, the case for the fed to keep rates higher for longer at least so says Neel Kashkari, the debate is no longer about how high rates have to go, but how long they have to stay there. So youve got treasury yields edging slightly lower this morning in the asia session. You did see the yield on the two year hop over that 5 mark. Ever so briefly and then back again. Yields on ten year treasuries were at their highest since october. And at one point, the 30 year real yield hit 2 for the First Time Since 2011. But that sell off has now mostly reversed. Over in asia, the hang seng and the csi 300 are in the red. Jp morgan cut its growth forecast for china after that horrid data dump for july. Some analysts also saying that the surprise rate cut wont be enough to revive confidence in china. But, hey, this isnt panic stations just yet. China stocks are still comfortably outperformed us stocks over the past month. If we can get more now on how asia markets are faring with bloombergs tanya chen. Tanya, what are you watching this morning . Hey, exactly what you were just looking at. I mean, mainland shares and hong kong shares are a little bit in the red. Its just more economic woes coming out of china. Today we saw home prices falling for a second month. This is also underscoring kind of the deepening property downturn that were seeing. Obviously, weve been hearing a lot about Country Garden, that developer potentially facing default risk today. Were now hearing that some of that might be spilling over into the Financial Sector. Were hearing that this financial conglomerate called zongzi, its dubbed the blackstone of china. It used to be a big player in shadow banking. One of its units might have missed a payment on an investment product. These trusts, theyve been exposed about 10 exposed to real estate sector. Thats according to Bloomberg Economics. And this particular unit is valued around ¥600 billion. So well have to see if were going to get more concerned as more potential missed payments in this trust sector. And this is all, you know, at the same time, we just saw this Interest Rate cut yesterday and today were seeing policymakers continuing to add short term cash into the financial system. Obviously, this might also be to do with some of this seasonal tax payments. But there is analysts saying that potentially theyre trying to deepen their liquidity bench in the event of obviously more risk, more more turmoil around the real estate sector. Earlier today on Bloomberg Television, you also had the Fitch Ratings global head saying that chinas a rating could potentially be reconsidered if these nongovernment financial liabilities continue to stack up. So obviously, theres been a lot of negative news flow just in the last 24 hours on top of what we were hearing yesterday. So today with the yuan, were looking at the offshore right now. Its at 7. 32. On the onshore. Its right below 7. 3. Did try to shore up this currency today by giving an outsize fix. But, of course, the weakness in that currency, i think really does reflect all the negative sentiment that were hearing today in china. All right. Thanks for that update, tanya chen, and well get back to you later in the program. Time now, though, for our morning roundtable with, as always, bloombergs valerie title. And this morning, were joined by michael winfree. Welcome to you both. I want to start with the fed. Minneapolis fed president Neel Kashkari says that he isnt convinced enough has been done to curb inflation. This, as we saw robust us retail sales showing that rate hikes havent yet slowed down the American Consumer, he says the battle to tame inflation isnt over right now. Inflation is coming down. Weve made some progress, some good progress. I feel good about that. Its still too high. The good news is the labor market has remained very strong, but its a little bit of a double edged sword because the question in my mind is, have we done enough to actually get inflation all the way back down to our 2 mark, or do we have to do more . Valerie, lets bring you in. Whats your take on these us retail sales figures . Great set of data beats across the board for the retail sales for the core retail sales and for the control group. This is just going back to this optimism about the us economy. We even have jp morgan calling for upside risk to their Third Quarter gdp and the atlanta feds Third Quarter gdp now is now on a five handle. Lizzie, that is near 8 nominal gdp growth that thats pricing in for the Third Quarter. But all of this led real yields to rise again for a fifth straight session in a row. Weve seen this real yields rise. We also saw ten year yields hit a new cycle, high, ten year yields hit four spot to seven. Lizzie, this real yield move, this yield move is catching a lot of peoples eye. And it finally caught the equity markets eye we have those us stocks at a month low they fell below their 50 Day Moving Average yesterday. So the momentum is now on the back foot for the us stocks. All right. Now for some news out of europe, because open Society Foundations, the charity billionaire george soros founded says it plans to end part of its work within the European Union. Michael, let me come to you now. How important was this Philanthropic Society in the eu and whats brought about this decision . Well, its quite enormously important. Pretty much everywhere here in central and eastern europe, we know someone whos benefited from all the philanthropic work that the osf has been doing over the past three decades, since the fall of the iron curtain. So overall, it spent almost 20 billion in the region last year it was about 210 million in Central Europe and central asia as well. One of the reasons that a spokesperson person told me yesterday was that theyre pulling out was because they discovered that, um, many european governments and institutions are already spending a lot of money on initiatives that promote democracy and support human rights and so forth. So they wanted to better place their money and seem to be set on moving their activities more to the fringes of the European Union. So places like ukraine, the western balkans, where theres ethnic tensions and these countries are trying to join the bloc and as well as central asia, such as kazakhstan. All right. Thanks to Michael Winfrey for that update on osf interest. To hear that extra detail on why theyre looking to exit the eu. Thank you for that. Finally, staying in europe, we have the news that norways Sovereign Wealth Fund returned 10 or 143 billion in the first half. So indicating that its back on track after one of its worst years. Its urged firms to start charting risks. Norges Bank Investment management gained almost 14 on equities, helped by a rebound in apple, microsoft and alphabet. Meanwhile, fixed income investments returned 2. 3 and unlisted Real Estate Holdings were down 4. 6 . Were going to be hearing from the norges Bank Investment management ceo, Nicolai Tangen. Hes joining bloomberg tv for an interview at 115 uk time. Now lets get ahead and look at what were watching out for today. At 7 a. M. London time, well get uk inflation data. Headline cpi expected to drop again from. 7. 9 to 6. 7 in june. But economists do reckon that core inflation will stay sticky. Thats expected only to fall from 6. 9 to 6. 8 . Then, before the bell, were expecting earnings for target analysts expecting quarterly same store sales to have slipped by 3 . And finally, at 7 p. M. , we get the latest fomc readings for the july meeting. The expectation is that the committees turn more dovish since that meeting, given that evidence, is building core inflation has come down closer to the feds 2 target. Well, lets talk about this uk data. Yesterday, the jobs numbers showed the hottest wage growth on record. Youve got some economists talking about a half point hike from the boe in september. Traders raising where they see peak uk risks to almost 6 . Ive had certain economists sliding into my ibs and complaining that theres been too much focus on wage growth and not enough on unemployment. We havent had a recession though yet. So why would people stop asking for pay rises . Look, i get wage growth is very positive for for the consumers here in the uk, but for the bank of england, its a big negative. And its because, lizzie, it feeds directly into core inflation, which is one thing that the bank of england is really yet to see much progress on. Yes, its ticked down, but its still on a six handle. And as you mentioned, expected to hit 6. 8 today. That is still too hot. But that wage growth, that Wage Inflation really will keep that Core Services component of inflation stickier for longer. That is the main risk that markets are worried about that pushed that terminal terminal rate for the bank of england close to 6 yesterday. Core inflation danger still close to 7 . Lets talk about these fomc minutes as well. Traders have been betting that the fed will keep rates higher for longer. Which members commentary are you most interested in then . Look, the minutes are kept quite vague over who says what, but well be looking for any hints about growing optimism that a soft landing is there and available for the fed to hit later this year. Weve seen some members be more optimistic. Even powell himself a bit more optimistic, will be looking for clues on that. And then, you know, any clues that they were already encouraged by the progress of disinflation. Obviously, these this fed meeting came before that soft cpi print we got a few weeks ago. But well be looking very closely on if they were already encouraged by the progress they had seen before. All right. Thanks to bloombergs valerie title, you can get a roundup of the stories that you need to know to get your day going. In todays edition of daybreak, the newsletter they lead on chinese shadow banks. One bank in particular missing payments on dozens of products, suggesting that, as tanya chen mentioned, its problems are deeper than previously thought. They also have a preview of the uk inflation data. And finally, they have intel being expected to call off its acquisition bid for tower as the clock ticks down on the deadline to win regulatory approval. Terminal subscribers can all can find all of that and more by going to go coming up, a sea of red. We discuss the reasons behind the continued sell off in chinese assets with our live team. Thats next. This is bloomberg. Health care professionals agree that sleep impacts everything you do. Chics performance sheets are engineered to keep you cool, dry and comfortable. Chics are the worlds most breathable moisture wicking, ridiculously soft sheets with superior stretch even tested and proven on adjustable beds. Upgrade to chics now go to try chics. Com to get 25 off and well ship them for free. Plus well include two additional pillowcases at no cost. Thats over 100 in savings. Go to try dot com. Now lets sling tv bringing you the best price for College Football on espn. You can take your love of the game to the next level like these guys. College football. You love the live tv. You love. This is mary anns first time visiting paris. Well, you before mary ann packed her bags before she attempted her first sentence in french, she downloaded babble. So when it came time to tell the cab driver to take her to the hotel, pierre qamar ali lhotel, pierre babble focuses on natural conversation. You can speak and pronounce with confidence. Start speaking a new language in three weeks at babble. Com from new york city. In london. In sydney. From washington. In tokyo, 9 a. M. In beijing and shanghai. Good morning, everyone. Great evening. Heres what im watching. You do not want to miss this story. The kind of upside. Welcome back to bloomberg daybreak. Europe now, our sell off in chinese assets is continuing as concerns over Economic Growth mount. Thats after a slew of disappointing data risks in the property sector and an unfolding crisis in the nations shadow banking system. Paul dobson, bloombergs executive editor for asia markets, joins us now. Paul, chinas facing some grim milestones. Is it inevitable that were going to meet them, reach them in the coming sessions . Well, yes, you know, kind of like if you look across both the and the equity space right now, were pretty close to some key levels in the in the currency markets. Close to a record low in terms of the off shore traded yuan or the weakest level, i think, in 16 years, thereabouts. Thats for the for the onshore markets. And then on the equity side, you know, were giving back pretty much all of the gains that we saw from the politburo meeting last month that inspired a little bit more confidence and close to a bear market in some of the Hang Seng Indexes as well. So so lots of lots of kind of grim looking levels that were that were approaching. And it seems like the authorities are doing what they can to try to hold back on that. So today, not only did we see the yuan fixing being particularly strong relative to expectations, trying to prevent it from weakening too rapidly, but also authorities injected a whole load of cash into short term money markets. China may be eased. Things a little bit with those shadow banking snarl ups that were seeing. So Digging Deeper into that tool bag, looking for some extra tools to try to help the markets at this at this time while were in those precarious situations. But sentiment sentiment is still very negative. If you look across the options space in the currency markets, if you look at the one year forward rates, the markets counting on the yuan continuing to weaken. So, yes, it feels like, at least from a positioning point of view, the markets conclusion is that its inevitable. Well get there eventually, even if the authorities are doing what they can to slow things. Oh, so its grim looking for the china outlook. But what does that mean then, for Global Markets . This . Yeah. So i think that, you know, china affects Global Markets in different ways. One, in terms of commodity demand. If if chinas slowing, then typically that will feed into weaker commodity prices. Obviously, that will give us some welcome relief in some ways. You know, weve seen the big run up in crude oil over the last month or six weeks. If chinese demand comes off from there and that weakens crude prices somewhat, it could help with that Global Inflationary picture that the Central Banks are trying to grapple with all around the rest of the world. So putting the market a little bit closer to the soft landing that everyones hoping for, the risk is, you know, if it turns really nasty, then china becomes a dead weight for Global Markets that drags Everything Else down and spreads contagion in a more unseemly and unsightly way. Instead. And while harvey paul, there seems to be a lot of interest in the words real yields at the moment, it seems to be the buzzword of the day. Why the sudden interest . Yeah, so i think what weve seen really is, you know, the run up in us yields in particular, not just on the back of inflation expectations, but now on the back of increased Interest Rate risk and increased supply demand. Supply demand dynamics. So we saw the real yield on the 30 year securities getting to 2 in the treasuries market. Yesterday, albeit briefly, before the market pulled back a little bit. And i think, you know, the increasing numbers of the people that we talk to are seeing this as attractive levels to come back in. But nonetheless, those very high us yields are sucking capital out of the rest of the world. Right. Were seeing is starting to weigh a little bit on the equities market. Were certainly starting to see it hurting emerging markets more. And in our part of the world over here in asia, were starting to really feel that, put it put an extra pressure on the currency markets, not only for chinese yuan, but also for the japanese yen, the Australian Dollar and new zealand dollar, all the weakest levels of the year. So, you know, kind of really those higher real yields matter all that much more in terms of global money flows. All right. Thanks to paul dobson, bloombergs executive editor for asia markets. Coming up, ukraines Energy Minister says his country is preparing for another hard winter as the war with russia grinds on. Our exclusive interview comes comes next. This is bloomberg. The omaha steaks anniversary sale is here. Now. For over a century, weve guaranteed the highest quality in everything we offer. To celebrate, were offering you 50 off site wide that means youll save 50 and get our 100 guarantee that youll love every bite. Never tried omaha steaks. Save an extra 30 with promo code. 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Dude, you dont have to look like your dad because this isnt your dads hair loss treatment. People all over the Country Trust bosley because theyre ahead of the curve. They use the latest technology to give you your real hair back. And the best part . Bosleys permanent solution is protected by the bosley guarantee. Let them show you for free how awesome your hair could look with an absolutely free information kit and a gift card for 250 off. Scan the qr code. Dont wait. Scan the code now and ask about the bosley guarantee. Welcome back to bloomberg daybreak. Europe now, european natural gas futures spiked yesterday for the second time in less than a week. Thats as tensions run high over the possibility of strikes in australia that could severely tighten the Global Market for liquefied natural gas. Discussions between Union Officials and one of the two Companies Operating in the affected facilities yielded no firm outcome to the labor dispute. Ukraine Energy Minister says his country is preparing for another hard winter as the war with russia grinds on. In an exclusive interview, german galchenko told us that kyiv is expecting more inflows of gas from its european partners. Take a listen. Today we could say that already something around 600 million of gas stored in ukraine, which is gas of europe companies. And that is also important for the security of supply in europe due to the level of storages in european in europe now, because its very high. So i think that that is a good solution for for the business and that is a good solution for european security. Do you expect more coming, minister, from europe . Yeah, we expect more coming. So, so i can tell you that we expect average something around from. 5500 to 600 per month. So and we could offer, we could offer. So our, our storage is. We need 15 bcm for ukraine for the next season. And so 15 is open for storing in ukraine. Can we talk about what you expect to happen this this winter minister, both in terms of the situation in ukraine and what you think the Energy Situation is likely to look like in europe . I think that thats very important. I mean, when we are talking about the gas, this is very important instruments, which already started in European Union, that is the joint purchasing platform, which would allow it not to speculate the prices and manipulate the prices. And i think that that is very important decision concerning the Ukrainian Energy system. Of course, we we are preparing for the another hard winter. So and just recall you that the previous winter we were living under everyday massive attacks on the Energy Infrastructure from russia. So it started from the 10th of october and the last massive attacks was on the 9th of march. So and it was every every day by all kinds of weapons. So now we are preparing for the next winter and we are not expecting that they wouldnt shell our energy system. What alternatives do you have, though, if some of your power lines are seriously damaged . Do you have to import other energy from for your own use . That is a very important option for us. So and i can tell you that thats the options which we use the previous winter, so that is the possibility to import electricity from European Union. So we we were connected to the european grid 21 day after the beginning of the full scale invasion. And now we have this this possibility to import electricity from europe in terms of what youve been able to manage this summer, to what extent have you been able to build up reserves of of key equipment, transformers, etcetera, that will help you deal with the situation as it progresses this winter . Thats what we are working on right now. And we were working before. Thats very important point because we we need this reserve, not only equipment to to repair and to substitute the the destruction of the system. We also need to increase the reserves. And here i can mention that we have in constant assistance and from from our partners, and that is supply of all kinds of equipment in kind. And that is also the donation of the money to Energy Support fund of ukraine, which allowed us to buy the necessary equipment. Minister, could you tell me what conversations you have also with the us on energy . Obviously when there are issues in the black sea, particularly when it comes to oil vessels, you see a price spike and the us doesnt really have a lot of options when it comes to deflating an oil price spike. Are there conversations that happen . Of course we are in constant consultation with the us with and with with all all our partners. And i can tell you that of course, we are monitoring the situation very closely. And so we are preparing and we are discussing different solutions. So that was the ukrainian Energy Minister speaking to bloombergs alix steel and guy johnson. Now thinking about the blowback for russia. Bloomberg has learned that russia may partially reinstate capital controls to stem the recent slump in the ruble. The proposal to mandate sales of export revenues was discussed at a meeting between the government and exporters yesterday. The talks just ahead of an emergency rate hike by the bank of russia. Lets check on these markets now ahead of the start of cash equity trading. Youve got euro stocks, 50 futures currently down 3 10 of a percent. S p minis are flat, as are nasdaq futures. Thats after the s p 500, the nasdaq and the Dow Jones Industrial average all ended just off session lows yesterday day. And then in europe here in the uk, we are getting the latest uk inflation data at 7 a. M. London time yesterday, as weve been discussing, you saw the hottest wage growth on record for the uk. The pound didnt quite know what to make of it. Perhaps because you also saw unemployment rise, which suggests a loosening of the labor market. Of course, the question is, will that be enough to tame inflation . Traders boosted their bets for where the boe is going to take rates. Ultimately, they now see just under 6 , having touched 6. 15 at one stage yesterday. Our economists reckon either would trigger a recession in the uk. That might also have been what was weighing on the pound. But nonetheless, if we see a hotter than expected inflation print today, expect those bets to rise further. Were going to discuss that next. The latest inflation reading due in just over half an hour for the uk. Well discuss what economists are expect as well as the future for the uk economy. More on that next. This is bloomberg. I dont want you to move. Im gonna miss you so much. You realize well have internet waiting for us at the new place, right . Oh, we know. We just like making a scene. Transferring your services has never been easier. Get connected on the day of your move with the xfinity app. Can i sleep over at your new place . Can katie sleep over tonight . Sure, honey this generation is so dramatic move with the xfinity 10g network. Start for free at godaddy. Com. Rise up this morning. Smile with the rising sun freely. First bit by my doorstep singing sweet song of melodies, pure and true singing sandals rhythm and blues caribbean sale now on visit sandals. Com. Good morning this is bloomberg daybreak europe im lizzie burden in london and these are the stories that youre waking up to. Asian equities retreat for a fourth day on more concerns over chinas economy. And after strong us retail sales add doubt that the feds inflation fight is finished at uk. Headline inflation is set to take a step lower today, but the pressure is on for the bank of england after the hottest wage growth on record. Plus, the Worlds Largest owner of stocks rebounds thanks to investments in big tech. Well break down the numbers from norways 1. 4 trillion Sovereign Wealth Fund. Well, good morning. Welcome to wednesday. Youre halfway through the week and its risk off this morning as concerns about inflation and growth weigh on markets. Us futures are flat after the s p 500, the nasdaq and the Dow Jones Industrial average all ended just off session lows yesterday. Equities are finally feeling a bit rattled, showing a little bit of worry. And this after you saw us retail sales coming in above forecasts along with home depot earnings, for that matter, underscoring American Consumer resilience and therefore bolstering the case for the fed to keep rates higher for longer. At least so says Neel Kashkari. The debate now really seems to be more about not how high rates have to go, but how long theyll have to stay there. So youve got us treasury yields edging slightly lower in the asia session. You did see the yield on the two year hop over the 5 mark. Briefly and then back again. Yields on ten year treasuries were at their highest since october. And at one point, the 30 year real yield hit 2 for the First Time Since 2011. But that sell off has mostly reversed. Over in asia, the hang seng and the csi 300 are in the red. Jp morgan cut its growth forecast for china after that horrid data dump for july. Some analysts also saying the surprise rate cut yesterday wont be enough to revive confidence. But were not quite at panic stations. China stocks are still comfortably outperforming us stocks over the past month. If you have a look. Well, we can get more on how asian markets are faring now. Lets go over to bloombergs tanya chen for an update. Tanya, what are you watching . Hey, lizzie. Yeah, as you were just saying, its not panic yet, but were getting quite close. I mean, china just cant seem to catch a break with all of this negative news flow thats coming out in recent days. Today we saw home prices falling for a second month, just underscoring that pain in the property sector. Weve been obviously hearing about that developer Country Garden potentially facing some default risk. Today, were also hearing that that contagion risk might also spill over into the Financial Sector. This financial conglomerate, zongzi, dubbed chinas blackstone, is potentially also has missed a payment on its investment product, which was exposed to real estate sector as well. So theres a lot of this turmoil right now around how much spillover are we going to see from the property sector into the economy and to the Financial Sector . We also heard from the fitch global head of sovereigns today just on Bloomberg Television saying that they may have to reconsider their a rating on the china credit, and thats if theyre nongovernment financial liabilities continue to mount. So were kind of seeing all of this pain in the equities market today. As you mentioned, hong kong shares were down over 1 . And also in china, shares as well down. Were spilling over into the rest of the region. Youre also seeing it in the currency today, currency on the offshore rate is around 7. 32 on shores around just below 7. 3. The pboc has been pushing back at this currency weakness, but not doing much besides pushing back at this currency weakness through this fixing stronger fixing. Today, we also did see here that the state banks were potentially selling dollars earlier in the session. And you could see that the offshore yuan really pared some of its earlier declines. And also the pboc has been injecting a bit more short term cash into the financial system. This is after the Interest Rate cut that we saw yesterday, potentially just lining up a deeper liquidity bench in case we see more turmoil out of the real estate sector. All right. Thanks for that update, tanya chen. I just want to stay in asia now because weve got some breaking lines from temasek. Its said to be weighing 2 billion asset sale of billion excuse me. Temasek is considering selling some of Pavilion Energys assets and seeking a valuation of at least 2 billion. This is a bloomberg scoop. Its from our reporters. Elfie chu and manuel baigorri, friend of the program. And this is the city state Investment Firm working with barclays on a potential sale that would exclude the gas pipeline business. You have not had commentary yet from barclays Pavilion Energy or temasek, but we will keep you updated on this potential deal. Considerations, it says are at an early stage and temasek could still decide to keep the assets for longer. Now were going to get uk inflation data in about half an hour. Just shy of expectations are for a moderation. But yesterdays wage data has got many concerns after growth accelerated at the strongest pace on record. Joining me now to discuss is bloombergs chief uk economist, dan hanson. Dan, some economists say its not the hot wage growth that we should be focusing in on. Its actually the unemployment rising again. Dan, whats your take . Yeah. Morning, lizzie. So i think think for me it really is about the wage growth because when you look at the bank of englands reaction function and what its been doing, its been really focused in on wage growth. Its been really focusing on services, inflation. And well get some information about that at 7 a. M. This morning. And for me, its the its the wage growth that has really going to drive their how they respond. Yes, unemployment is rising. We know that. And the labor market is loosening. But what is clear is that its not loosening by enough to slow wage growth. As youve rightly pointed out, their wage growth is still rising. So i think for me, at least in the near term, if youre trying to work out what the bank of england is going to do next, its definitely looking at the wage growth data and also the Services Inflation. As mentioned earlier. So thats something that were going to get this morning. And what that does will be actually the key thing this morning. I think youve got a headline in the headline measure of inflation. Its very likely to drop just because of whats going on with energy prices. But its whats going on with underlying inflation. Thats going to be what the banks focused on. Yeah, were not at recession yet, so why wouldnt workers keep asking for a pay rise, not to encourage anybody, but also done some economists now seeing a half point hike from the bank of england in september off the back of that wage data. What would need to be in todays us Inflation Report to change your call . Yeah, thats a really interesting one. And actually i think today probably at least if if the forecast comes in line with what were expecting, sort of damp expectations for a 50 basis point hike, i mean, think what youd need to see is core inflation rise again. Remember, we had those two nasty prints in april and may, and thats what really spurred the bank of england to go for 50 in in june. We also had some wage growth surprises in that period as well. So i think what what youd need to see is surprises to the upside. Weve obviously had the wage growth data yesterday, but surprises to the upside in core inflation and Services Inflation today. And dont forget, weve got another set of data before the september meeting. So if you get surprises there as well, then i think the 50 basis point could come onto the table. I think the bar is pretty high and its higher than it was in june because youd have a situation where youre going 25 in may, 50 in june, 25, in august, then 50 in september. That to me looks like a little bit out of control to me in the bank of england doesnt doesnt have a handle on the situation. So i think the bar is high for it. But in order to get there, the first thing youd need to see is some big upside data surprises. Well, lets talk about a downside surprise, because we had one in july. It was good for uk stocks. What are the winds blowing that could actually push inflation in a positive direction . John yeah, so i mean, just on the headline itself, its worth just focusing on what were going to get on the energy side. So weve got in the uk essentially its baked in a big fall in Energy Price Inflation and thats whats going to be the big driver behind the fall. We think in the headline rate. We think theres going to be some easing in food inflation. But if youre looking for somewhere for some some good news, if you like, where theres a lot more uncertainty, but it could fall quite sharply. I think the place to look is on the core goods side of the inflation basket. Weve seen ppi inflation in both on the output and input side come off quite strongly and that tends at least historically, to core goods. Inflation tends to follow those things pretty strongly. The the, the, the link has broken down recently. But i think in time it should reassert itself. Thats a big judgment underpinning at least our forecast. And think the bank of englands forecast as well. And if that if that relationship reasserts itself more quickly, then we could be getting some good news prints not only on the on the headline side, but that would actually influence core inflation as well. All right. Thanks to bloombergs chief uk economist, dan hanson, for that preview. Well get those numbers at the top of the hour. Now, the Philanthropic Organization that controls most of the 25 billion in assets in george Soros Family Office is set to end most of its operations in the European Union as part of a retrenchment under the new leadership, the open Society Foundation has told bloomberg its introducing a new operating model. The changes also come as the foundation cuts headcount by some 40 . Now just want to bring you some more breaking news. Crossing the terminal. We have tesla, china cutting prices of its model s and its model x existing stock of that. But this is after we saw them cutting prices on monday. So another price cut. And if this lights off an ev price war in china, it may put european automakers at risk, but more of the same strategy from elon musk there. Well keep you updated on that story. Now lets take a look at some of the other events that were watching out for today. As mentioned, well get uk, cpi data at 7 a. M. London time. That follows another record increase in wages, as dan hansen was just discussing, putting more pressure on the bank of england to grapple with inflation. Then at 2 15 p. M. Uk time, its Us Industrial production. It likely rose in july, according to Bloomberg Economics and then at 7 p. M. Uk time we get the minutes of the feds july meeting. Theyre set to show that a majority of fomc members were encouraged by progress on disinflation, but not yet convinced that the rate hike cycle was over. Finally, target is set to report earnings today. The us retailers results have been deteriorating since last year. Had to resist the urge to call it target. As our producer has been doing. Coming up, norways Sovereign Wealth Fund returns over. 140 billion in the first half, indicating its back on track following one of the worst years in its history. More on that story next. This is bloomberg. This is mariannes first time visiting paris. Well, you, um, before marianne packed her bags, before she attempted her first sentence in france, she downloaded babble. So when it came time to tell the cab driver to take her to the hotel, pierre qamar. Ali al otel. Pierre babble focuses on natural conversation so you can speak and pronounce with confidence language lessons for every summer adventure. Get 55 off for a limited time at babble. Com, mtv and sling tv. Bringing you the best price for College Football on espn. And you can take your love of the game to the next level. Like these guys. College football. You love the live tv. You love Health Care Professionals agree that sleep impacts everything you do. Chics performance sheets are engineered to keep you cool, dry and comfortable. Shakes are the worlds most breathable moisture wicking. Ridiculously soft sheets with superior stretch even tested and proven on adjustable beds. Upgrade to sheets now go to try wkyc. Com to get 25 off and well ship them for free. Plus well include two additional pillowcases at no cost. Thats over 100 in savings. Go to trishika. Now. Calm down. Load the free app. Now markets calm down in europe from the Financial Centers of the world. Bloomberg markets european clothes with guy johnson in london and alix steel in new york. Real time numbers, real time analysis weekdays. Its an amazing thing when you show generosity of spirit to someone and you want people to be safe and to have a better life, then you dont stop. The idea that we have saved 5 million peoples lives. Its overwhelmed. s everything. Our business historically has been driven by by men. Today, 56 of our customers are actually women. On our website, in our stores, they represent less than 30 of our business. So thats a massive opportunity for us. And i think as we get to understand her better, develop the right products for her, present the products in a way that resonates with her, which may not be the same way as for men. Thats a big opportunity for us. So that was the Ralph Laurens ceo, patrice louvet, speaking to bloombergs francine lacqua. And you can watch the full interview with the ralph lauren ceo tonight at 9 30 p. M. New york time. And in europe tomorrow at 6 30 p. M. London time. Now, norways Sovereign Wealth Fund has seen a 10 return or 143 billion in the first half of this year. The gains indicate the fund is back on track after one of its worst years. Joining me now is bloombergs oslo bureau chief, Stephen Treloar. Stephen, what drove these returns in the first half morning, lizzie . Well, it was mostly a stock return of close to 14 , and that was mostly technology stocks, which rebounded from a poor year last year. They benefit from a Strong Demand in asia. Solutions from the biggest, biggest companies. And given that their holdings are topped by apple, thats no surprise. Consumer discretionary industrials also contributed. And the funds underperformed against the benchmark, did they give any indication of what was behind that . Yeah, so that was largely real estate and their unlisted renewable Energy Infrastructure holdings. Both of them underperformed and they pulled the return down as well. But in particular, the Us Office Properties that they hold saw an underperformance. So you can see there that the the shockwaves going through the Real Estate Market at the moment are really hurting the fund. All right. Thank you to Stephen Treloar in oslo. Now norges Bank Investment management ceo Nicolai Tangen is going to be joining bloomberg tv for a special interview at 115 uk time. Dont forget to tune in to that. Now, we have been having a raft of earnings in terms of retail. Well get more later this week. Home depot earnings beating estimates and suggesting that us Home Improvement spending is performing slightly better than expected. Bloomberg Simone Foxman has more detail. Strong retail Sales Numbers up 7 10 of 1 in july, as well as better than expected earnings for home depot kick off a busy week of retail. Big box earnings. They werent as weak as most analysts anticipated with Comp Store Sales falling only 2 and revenue up. At 42. 9 billion. Ceo ted dekker pointing to some weakness in really big expenditures. Those big ticket thousand dollar plus items like appliances, like patio furniture. But its important to note that the home depot consumer is a little bit different than other consumers in the us economy. Their top consumer is homeowners. Theyre also very exposed to the pro market, so contractors in their buying supplies for new homes and in some ways a little bit more reflective of the Housing Market than overall shopping. But well get a better gauge of that when we get target earnings. And then later in the week, we are looking forward to earnings from walmart, which is trading near record highs as its been able to capture a wide swath of the Consumer Base in new york, im Simone Foxman for bloomberg news. So as simone was mentioning there, we are expecting target earnings later in the day, that is before the us market opens. So lets just have a quick look at what were expecting. Whereas home depot Beat Estimates yesterday along with retail sales for target, the expectation is for quarterly same store sales to have slipped by 3 . Analysts reckon that the consumer boycotts that came in response to the pride themed merchandise actually hurt sales and Rbc Capital Markets reckons the Second Quarter is going to be a messy one for target. It says the companys likely to miss its earnings per share target and to cut its full year outlook. Now, if you have a look, the stocks already lost more than 12 so far this year. So underperforming the s p 500 consumer distribution and retail index really by quite a long way. Thats climbed more than 31 year to date. So were going to keep an eye on those shares later today. Coming up, some british muslims have told bloomberg that banks are ruining their lives with banking policies. More on that story next. This is bloomberg. Guys. Got hair loss. I know what youre thinking. Should i shave my head . Comb it over, wear a hat. Just stop. This isnt 1970. 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It means seeing millions of ratings and reviews so you can feel confident. It means comparing quotes. Get. Started today angi. Com. You that change its the price of winning tomorrow to adapt youll need Trading Technology that automates and scales us while our market leading data reduces fragmentation between teams. Well partner with you to define and deliver exactly what you need. Helping you face change in ways no one else can. This s is bigger thinking. This is bloomberg for the sell side. Learn more at bloomberg. Com slash sell side. Welcome back to bloomberg daybreak. Europe now at the top of the hour, were going to get the latest uk inflation data. So lets have a little bit of a preview of that, shall we . Yesterday, of course, you had that hotter, hottest wage growth on record for the uk in the latest labor market numbers. The pound didnt quite know what to make of it. Maybe because you also saw unemployment rising. But traders did boost their bets for where the boe is going to take rates ultimately. So they now see them coming in just under 6 . They did touch 6. 15 . At what stage yesterday . And our economists reckon that either of those levels would trigger a recession in the uk. Maybe thats what was weighing on the pound. Nonetheless, if we see a hotter than expected inflation print today, you can expect those bets to rise further. So today economists expect headline cpi to drop again, as we were hearing from our economist dan hanson earlier, that would be from. 7. 9 to 6. 7 in june. But economists do reckon that core inflation is going to stay sticky and fall only from 6. 9 to 6. 8 . The Monetary Policy committee is going to be having a close eye on that. Currently, goldman economists expect a quarter point hike from the boe next month, but the idea of a half point hike is back on the table, at least according to analysts at saxo bank and td securities. But dont forget as well, we have got a whole other batch of jobs and inflation data before the next boe decision on september the 21st. So well keep an eye on that as well. Of course, how much inflation falls is going to be crucial to getting uk stocks back in investors. Good books. So those numbers at the top of the hour are staying in britain ever since british politician turned pundit nigel farage said that his bank account was being shut down because of his political beliefs. On the issue of and im putting some air quote marks in here debunking has been thrust into the public spotlight. However, it is an issue that british muslims have had to contend with for some time now. Joining me now is bloombergs fintech reporter, aisha ghani, whos been researching this story. Really fantastic reporting. What actually happens when you get banked as its known and how widespread is this problem there are a few ways that people are losing their Bank Accounts. What typically has happened is that Bank Accounts will be frozen for days or even weeks. I spoke to one man, akil ahmed, from luton, whos a former postman. His bank account was frozen for six weeks. In that time, he was unable to do his grocery shopping. His direct debit started bouncing and he couldnt pay his bills after that, he received a letter saying that both his and his wifes accounts were shut down and also his childrens savers accounts. And thats been a typical story that ive been hearing. I mean, its really alarming stuff in a cost of living crisis, this. How is the Muslim Community being so particularly hit hard by this problem of banking now . We know that muslims are less likely to have current accounts. We know they are most likely to be in poverty. Now, ive spoken to a range of people from, like i said, a former postman to someone whos a Financial Services lawyer, people who are even in banking and theyve all had their banks stripped away from them in different ways. And youre absolutely right. In a cost of living crisis, it makes it all the more difficult. I spoke to a man who had his Barclays Bank account shut down two days ago. He said he had to walk four miles because he couldnt pay for the bus or the tube or get an uber. So this kind of illustrate its just how necessary having a bank account is in britain today. Yeah, in a nearly cashless society. So. Okay. How have banks responded to this . So banks have responded by. Well, many of the chief executives during the earnings season said that they dont take peoples personal or political beliefs into account. And that is a line that they have maintained. But we know that the Financial Conduct Authority has said last week that they will be investigating this and will be writing to banks. We know that a thousand people a day are losing their Bank Accounts, but we dont know just whos losing it and why. All right. Thank you for that reporting. Digging deeper beneath the lines that have been coming out from banks in earnings season on a very important story. Bloombergs aisha ghani with that reporting. Thank you. Now, we are expecting to hear from the ceo of carlsberg later at 7 a. M. Hes going to be giving an interview to bloomberg and the markets today program. We did have carlsberg earnings yesterday. The shares gaining as much as 2. 8 after the danish brewer increased its annual profit forecast for the second time since april on the back of a solid first half. The stocks up. 10. 6 year to date. I suppose if carlsberg did earnings, theyd be pretty good. You might say its been working hard to keep consumers drinking its beers despite, of course, the price hikes that its had to do, which are to offset the higher input costs from everything from grains to freight. But remember, heineken had to cut its profit forecast this month. So itll be interesting to see what the ceo has to say. That interview up shortly here on bloomberg tv. You might want to stick a carlsberg in the fridge as well, because at 11 a. M. , youre going to be keeping a sneaky eye, im sure, on the womens world cup semifinals. Its australias matildas versus englands lionesses. You can see they how they fared in previous matches on the screen here. And speaking of inflation, heres how their economies compare. A common denominator in the two of them, though, is of course, their favorite show, daybreak europe. Up next, markets today. This is bloomberg. The omaha steaks anniversary sale is here right now. Were offering 50 off site wide. The only number that hasnt changed is our 100 guarantee that youll love every bite. And if youve never tried omaha steaks, save an extra 30 with promo code. First time visit omaha steaks dot com slash tv today. Why wouldnt you want to save 50 on 100 satisfaction just a little bargain hunting wisdom from omaha steaks. 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This European CentralBank President , christine lagarde, insists that male domination of the Banking Industry made the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers more likely. As the guard put it, if it had been lehman sisters rather than Lehman Brothers, the world might well look a lot different today. This is Bloomberg Markets today. Im anna edwards, live in london with tom mckenzie. Mark cudmore, our markets live managing editor, joins us from singapore to take u