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Six months ago, I forecasted that bonds of all stripes would extend their winnings this year. Then fears of inflation and rising interest rates sent Treasury and corporate bond yields up and sent bond prices, which move in the opposite direction, down 5% or more over the first three months of 2021 – with the exception of high-yield "junk" bond prices.
Although long-term interest rates, including corporate and Treasury yields, leveled off in April and backslid in May, my prophecy of positive total returns is in manifest jeopardy.
Through May 7, the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) shows a loss of 2.5%. If that continues, 2021 would be the first down year for this popular yardstick since 2013.