Giant as oil jumps today is this beaten down sector finally about to move up the Investment Committee is ready to go. The Halftime Report with scott wapner begins right now. Welcome our Investment Committee today, joe terranova, steve weis, john and Pete Najarian. Lets begin with the markets and that semi surge. The chips on pace to close above a key level. Their 50day moving average for the First Time Since early may still a long way to go to get back to the highs but, pete, if this is legit, it could be extremely positive for the overall market it sure could people were leaning on this. This is exactly why this particular name moving everybody else, micron, thats why it was beaten down as much as it was. You look at yearoveryear numbers, this is abysmal but they priced in the fact they werent looking year over year but for this quarter can they beat, and they did. They beat on earnings and on revenue by a little bit, not a lot. And you look at the company. We all talk about valuations you can say that at micron on almost any level this Company Trades inexpensively. Are they executing and are they able to accomplish what said they gave some guidance that i think also gave people a little more encouragement in terms of the future the combination of all of that take a look at intel and xylink. The semis, theyre all reacting. That may not be the best reaction they may be overreacting i say it all the time on the down side. Youll pull some name out. Micro chip its burning down the semis. Who ever heard of micro chip who cares. But the reality is everything overreacts well, are we overreacting a bit in the semis off of a number that micron put up that was good and was a beat but year over year wasnt that great the top 30 gainers in the russell 2000 dominated by semis. Great gain today for some of these stocks pretty good gains over the month for these stocks but still well off their 52week highs. Lets not go to party city and start buying the streamers, all the plates and all that stuff. You cant even get helium because theyre getting short on helium the smh has become a trading vehicle. Evidence to that, the smh is 1. 1 billion in total assets. Yesterday 130 million came out of it. Thats basically 10 its become a trading vehicle to your point at the beginning of the month. The place to be. Ive been trading around i like what pete is saying about micron i would say microns quarter in agreement you have to worry about the inventory build. They did not work off the inventory build. The demand on the pc and smartphone side isnt there. Volatility Going Forward because 13 of the revenue is tied to huawei so youre going to get volatility there however, the other side, you stay in the semis. You stay in the smh which is what im doing because its about taiwan semi. Its about intel and qualcomm, nvidia, its about those bigger players in the semispace and right now the direction points higher for them. Micron says they expect demand for chips to rebound later this year thats a positive sign if you look at how far the stocks have to go to get back to their highs. Micron is 37 from its high. Nvidia 45. Western dig, 44. A. Mat 13. 5. Skyworks more than 26 off its high these things still have a long way to go. Exactly but if you think the market is going to continue to move higher or take another leg up, you need the semis to perform, dont you . Probably. But id say the big reason that the semis, more than other groups, would want to move right now today is not just about what micron said but what treasury secretary mnuchin suggested which is that perhaps theres a trade deal thats coming and these semis have been really hurt by the assumption theyll be hurt if you pay the tariff on every item they ship a group way down from its highs and something positive on the trade front which has been the biggest negative overhang to the market mr. Weiss, micron upgraded today to buy target 50 bucks. Western dig upgraded, target 54 bucks. Are you a naysayer on these gains . Are they way ahead of themselves first of all, micron ceo has never been able to predict the future as far as guidance. And theyre basically saying the same thing you said. Yet youve had an inventory build from 130 days to 150 days. Thats not good. I also believe youve had some stuffing of the channel not in the farious way but by the buyers in china buying in advance because of trade . Right and weve seen that that was said. Oems buying in advance microns inventories, we dont know inventories so, look, i dont think micron should recover to its old highs. Lets not forget about all that came out and said we have a 100 price target theyre jumping over themselves each day this is going to the moon. So i still own skyworks. I sold most of my smh. Still a little left because its a little overdone for now. Too much beta coming ahead of trump and g20. But if, doc, a lot of the negativity around this space i built around trade, if you get some positive headlines, to steves point coming out of the g20 this weekend, why wouldnt these stocks continue to work . Yeah. And they will if thats what i agree with that i think one of the key phrases in here, scott my point is if youre getting out of part or all of your smh, why do you want to be so negative in that space ahead of what could be a positive development this weekend i put smh on as a trade, and it was a good trade. I took my money off the table. I still own skyworks and bought more skyworks over the past week thats where im playing because i like the i like the play form Going Forward to the next gen. Thats why im there im not short i was shorting micron for a trade today hoping people would come to their senses and saying the quarter wasnt that good and the Short Covering would subside by about 10 30 so i covered doc, forgive me for interrupting want to make sure everyone was on the same page at least 12 different firms either reiterated or went to higher ratings today on micron and they did it because of, i think, a key word in here. Not trying to parse it like we do fed statement but in their statement they said if huawei continues, if this black listing of huawei and so forth continues, thats going to have a negative impact on fullyear 2020 and so forth. Everybody saw that and yet nobody cared in other words, i agree with mnuchin carries this much better than that if does on the negative side. So what youre talking about here is a lot of firms looked at what micron said, to petes point. Margins, i thought they were actually good, though, pete. They were up 1. 5 year over year thats great theyre at 29 give or take right now. The bill that steve cites is concerning but they were able to get a higher margin and held on to inventory rather than flooding the market with it which is a smart thing to do they also had lower cap ex. Do you go in and assume the risk in a micron on your belief you get a favorable resolution on trade, or do you stick with just basically the overall smh etf . And i think thats the better play i dont know if you want the risk assumption specifically in a micron what joe just said it important because if what were saying is this group moves because the market moves there are many other places to go in the market without the risk of whether you really get the trade resolution that you need for the chips to really im suggesting that maybe this group moves the market more than the market moves this group. Semis, you know, could lead to the down side or lead to the up side yes its an indicator. I think the huawei issue is separate from the trade issue. So just because you get an agreement on trade doesnt mean youll get a security issue settlement on huawei theyve made that clear that they are separate and distinct if you look at the analysts estimates hes got it going to over six bucks in 19. This year. And it goes out to 20 and he cut his estimates from 530 to 330. This should not sell at ten times except in a trough its fully valued. And when weve got all this back and forth like this, this is why i sold mine i dont know if pete cleared hi out. I was in micron. A lovely winter. God bless them and im taking the money and running. Same thing, except i only trimmed in wdc, western digital. Its up 10 from when i did that for unusual just a week and a half ago and you can imagine that the options moved a lot more than that 10 stock moved in a 35 stock. So im trimming in amd and wdc i took micron all the way off. Its a trading environment. Weve talked about it all year i continue to think its a trading environment. When we look at micron, to your point, im not interested in shorting it, but im long the stock as well. Im going to sell that ill probably be out by the end of the day because this is a great move and a nice violent move to the up side. Im not so sure that guidance has me enough excited right now to say, you know what . I see this persisting for a longer period of time. Id rather be in other parts of the semis but continue to trade them but im not married to any of them. Ongets that note, lets not act like todays move in the 50day moving average and this big gain for the smh is all of a sudden so rosy. Lets not forget the evercore isi note another leg down for memory in q4 19, we think so. The recovery pushed to the second half of 2020 . Yeah they took price targets down all the way across the space applied materials, kla tencor, and micron it took and i keep talking about the smh because thats the proxy for whats going on with the chinese and the u. S. Right now. And the trade dispute. It took the smh down to somewhere around 102 a buying opportunity thats where you jumped in and actually bought it so they can be right about the fundamental trend but to what i think the conversation is here, this is more about whats the nearterm direction of a trade overall for the semis as a sector industry. And i think that continues to point positively as long as we feel theres going to be a outcome thats somewhat favorable. You get to monday dow is on pace for its best june since 1938 s p is not quite that far back but its having a great june as well and so much seems to be hinging on now this dinner between trump and xi in osaka. And anything incrementally positive that comes out of that could be good for this space and the overall market in general. Its interesting you say that because i feel theres a doubleedged sword if theres a resolution to this, jay powell has to say, well, gosh, it was really trade and the potential negatives about trade that could slow the economy which could be the reason the fed lowers Interest Rates. And the whole rally, i think the rally over the last month has been based on an assumption that Interest Rates come down thats right. If theres a resolution to this, then you dont have necessarily that incentive to lower Interest Rates and the market isnt going to like that. What if trade has already slowed the economy not what if well, it has. But if it doesnt slow it more, if we dont have any resolution, i dont think theres a reason to, in july, cut Interest Rates thats why we made that scale. Yeah. Yesterday on our wall of the major sort of things that are balancing each other now you have got to get the rate cut the market is counting on. A resolution in trade or you have a potential problem a resolution in trade does not mean chairman powell automatically steps back because the damage has been done i think he gave some indication of that, though, yesterday. He did. Where he said if we he didnt say well be proactive. Led you to believe preemptive, i think. While they dont respond to political events that if trade is one, they are looking at. If we get a deal well not get a deal, but then i dont think they cut so you both raise the, i think the most critical issue. And maybe we did get a whiff of that yesterday as to whether the market is getting way ahead of itself on fed expectations and on that note, lets bring in Steve Liesman joining us today from d. C steve, so you had all this fed speak yesterday. Chair powell says baseline outlook remains favorable. Policy should not overreact to a single data point. Bullard says 50 basis point cut would be overdone. This doesnt sound like these two very important people on the fed are necessarily in line with where the market expects things to go next month i wonder if i disagree with you on that, scott the Market Pricing does expect a 25 basis point cut thats a good oddson bet and a possibility of a 50. When i look at the way the market is priced i see a 78 of a 25 basis point cut that seems about right i think the real issue, scott, theres, by the way, september 68 chance of a 25 and an 18 chance of a 50 i think the fed does not quite know what its going to do and thats because of all the things you guys are talking about if you can tell me exactly how the meet with xi and trump is going to go and how weak or strong the july jobs report is going to be and then tell me whats happening with gdp, i tell you what the fed is going to do. The fed is holding in reserve its options and possibilities because its not quite clear how weak the economy is. I think joe is right the Federal Reserve believes some damage has been done though they have not really revised their baseline outlook that the economy kind of plows ahead here at this 2 , 2 plus growth the question is whether or not that gdp growth forecast includes a cut or multiple cuts or does not. Still you have powell saying, he didnt say the base line outlook remains dicey. He said favorable. Yeah. And bullard said manufacturing is being affected by the global trade war. Yeah, let me tell you another place i disagree with you. I dont think you equate bullard and powell the same level, right . Of course not, but i dont think youre doing that but i want to be clear. Bullard is a president , a Voting Member the chairman, when you have doubts about what the real policy is or going to be, you should follow the chairman you know, as well as i do, though, that bullard has moved the market and bullard may very well have moved the market yesterday before powell even spoke he has. By the way he has that credibility within the marketplace jim was ahead of the rest of the fed in terms of pointing where the fed was going to be going. I think thats also worth pointing out ive seen president s move the market beyond their actual, lets say, strength or position on the Federal Reserve be that as it may, i think that that bullard is among those on the fed and caplan, by the way, you should also throw in who says hes worried about excesses but probably would be on board for 25 basis point cut i think that it depends on how you read the market to see if the fed is different from where the market is. The Market Pricing on a 25point basis cut. If i saw really strong job growth in july, but i will say i just got as we were speaking the rapid update were down 0. 1 to 1. 9 for Second Quarter growth. The fed could cut a quarter point in light of a growth forecast but i wouldnt be overly exuberant about the possibility of a 50. And what do you make of what ubs is saying today. If a cut does not happen in july, it might not happen at all. You know, again, id follow the data here. If the data were to show that there is strength and were on board with it. I dont know that i agree. I assume thats seth carpenter who is a fed observer. I didnt read his report this morning but i dont quite see that they can always come back and cut any time they want they have press conferences at every meeting. I think the issue is that the data is going to tell the fed which way to go. You have this weakness in Capital Spending you had a decline in Consumer Confidence the consumer has been fairly strong well see if we get a bounce back i think joes comment there is really one worth thinking deeply about which is how much damage has been done by trade, such that even if theres a deal this week, the fed has to address it. If it is extensive and it starts showing up in the data, then i think the fed is on course for a rate cut i think we i dont think its a stretch to say that it has done significant damage. I think all you need to do is listen and, frankly, from the very beginning of all of this, the commentary out of the c suites was this was damaging it was hurting their ability to see into the future and to open the bank account and write these checks let me also say in fairness to seth carpenter at ubs, i dont want to misrepresent what the note was saying. They do say that theyre forecasting a 50basis point rate cut in july and that its about risk management, not the base line. And its not a foregone conclusion but we think it would be hard to stop. Its not like youre saying its not going to happen. Theyre just saying against all of that, if it didnt right and with all due respect to what seth said the chairman yesterday repeated his comment about an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure thats the thinking behind the possibility of a 50. So he even held that out there, this idea of the fed acting preemptively when you dont have a lot of bullets to shoot. Shoot what you have often and do it more forcefully so i think thats really critical thats still on the table. But you cant really take it to the bank until you see what the data are going to be we appreciate it, steve my pleasure thats Steve Liesman from d. C. For us. I think the fed is in a difficult position it would be difficult to get intoxeraicated by strong headlis and step back and say, maybe we dont need to do anything right now but they run a risk. It goes back theres been economic contraction. If you do nothing in july, your next opportunity to do something becomes september and that could deepen further theyre in a tough spot. The use of insurance cut, thats the right terminology because basically from a perception standpoint, not the reality of fixing the economy, perception standpoint, maybe that helps you can make a credible case and i know that others have sort of spoke about this around the margins of if you cut rates. A reason why the economy is slowing has less to do with where Interest Rates are than it does with where the trade war is okay thats a fact. I agree so the president saying that wed be doing 4 or 5 , or whatever number hes throwing out this number if the fed cut Interest Rates there needs to be more focus on the fact the trade war has hurt the economy. Except theres one other point that i think what is a rate cut going to do as long as the trade war is raging right well, the rate cut is something that if the trade war is raging is apparently a necessity. Theres damage already if theres more damage to come, theyll have to cut. But heres another factor about cutting rates which everyone stopped talking about which is the question of inflation. Because the fed used to think a lot about inflation and whether they needed to cut rates to control inplation. We just heard from Federal Express yesterday talk about how the quarter is weaker. Why . Because they cant raise the price. Even though there are more packages flying around the world than there ever have been and its amazing to me in that business you cant raise price at all its because of competition and because of really the whole deflationary world we live in. So the fed raising lowering by 50 basis points is very deflationary lets just theyre not going to be able to do that if the fed cuts in july, as most people expect but the trade war is still going on and raging, whatever whats the market going to do . So if the fed cuts, the market has a kneejerk reaction. But it does nothing for the economy. Theres not a new ceo theres not a ceo out there in my view, im making a generalization, obviously, but you can say, great, my money is 50 bips cheaper. They already have historically low rates and massive uncertainty of the trade war so its not going to motivate spending thats my point if its tracking at 1. 9 , cutting Interest Rates, what is it going to the only reason theyd cut is to give a nod and support the markets. Thats the only reason whatsoever and i think its a bad reason to do it. They do it to take back the december mistake because that was a mistake. To raise rates in december so i think they do that, steve, to take back december. And id say that as Carl Quintanilla has been reporting from being in hanoi and over in southeast asia, you cant just flip a light switch and change providers, change your supply chain and all the rest, as we all know around the desk but it was great that carl did that good work over there. So when joe talks about jay powell examining exactly what the impact is of the trade war, it likewise doesnt just throw a light switch we dont just go on and on so if they dont react, scott, to if its good news over the weekend and they dont react, i think that they could be backing themselves into a bad place in september. They have to do they are always in a corner the other interesting its not like a Football Game where you screw up one call and give it back, do a giveback call to the other team on the next play. Thats not how the fed works theyll not try to reverse the damage they did in december. Its just going to be a nod to the market because the odds are so high. The trade war could be like that call at the end of the saints rams game the nfl doesnt work that way. That damaging, theres no going back right away. Mnuchin and trump have a better Red Zone Offense than the last time we were 90 there and could bring it over the goal line the other interesting thing is how concentrated the rally has been if you look at five companies have contributed more than 30 of the gains out of the s p, microsoft, which big level on the desk, facebook, amazon, disney and apple good sign . Bad sign doesnt matter who wants that sucks for me because i only own apple and microsoft. I dont think its bad we can always parse the numbers and see whats driven the market ive got stocks that are up more than the bottom four there and i own the top one. So i think thats not the best representation of how the markets reacting i went through this when i saw the stat half the names in the s p are below the average and half of the names in the s p are above the average. And whenever you have an extremely strong right. Exactly. But but the market cap numbers are about the same also. And so whenever you have a very strong market, up or down, youll have some a few names that are pulling it up or pulling it down. So i dont find it particularly alarming in this case. You can give him an elbow when the camera shot switches to joe right now yes, bam. So the equity performance is concentrated i just think if you look at multiassets across the board, all Asset Classes in 19 are trending higher. Thats unique. Thats a circumstance you generally dont see. You got it in 17. Getting it again the visiting base, that gives them strong confidence in flows. 20 seconds. I think its great. To steves point, if you look outside of these names youll see all kinds of names hitting 52week highs. These have such a concentration before the dollar value of these stocks and the push theyre giving the market. Heres what else is coming up on the Halftime Report oil soaring today up 3 one analyst is making a big call on a major player in the sector. Will the oil trade work this time jon and Pete Najarian both scoring big this week in the Options Market see what they just found today before the break, our data partners at kensho on what happens after micron is up 10 or more in a day its happened 11 times since 2010 when it does, the numbers say sell it trades lower 64 of the time two weeks later. Down by 3. 5 for more go to cnbc. Com kensho the Halftime Report with scott wapner and the traders is back in two minutes henry i thought it was unfair. When when you hear those words that you get diagnosed with cancer. osamah successfully treating it still remains one of the most enormous challenges facing us today. We realized that, if we developed the technology that could take 2dimensional patient imaging and convert it into 3dimensional holographic renderings, we could enable surgeons to dissect around the cancer so we can precisely remove it. When we first started, we felt like this might just not be possible because Computing Power just wasnt there, but verizon 5g ultra wideband will give us the ability to do this. We wont rest until we see this technology being able to change lives. If you go to cnbc. Com halftime, you get an opportunity to ask any one of the traders any questions you want forget about weiss, but everybody else will answer your questions. Giddy up go to cnbc. Com halftime or get us on twitter with askhalftime im Courtney Reagan. Heres your cnbc news update in geneva, a United Nations independent investigator presented her formal report into the death of Jamal Khashoggi last october the items gathered by the inquiry suggest that the killing of mr. Khashoggi constituted an extraditional execution and enforced disappearance and possibly an act of torture for which the state of the kingdom of saudi arabia is responsible the owner of the Largest Oil Refinery on the east coast says it will close the facility after a fire last week badly damaged the complex. More than 1,000 workers will be impacted 150yearold refining complex processes 335,000 barrels of crude oil a day. Cuba gooding jr. And his legal team arriving at court this morning they are seeking the dismissal of charges the actor groped a woman at a new york city bar they say security video from the bar contra dicts the womans allegations and witnesses say no crime occurred thats a cnbc news update at this hour. Back to you, scott thanks, Courtney ReaganConoco Phillips having its best day in nearly six months. The analysts upgrading cop to a buy rating its our call of the day stock is up 5 pete do i like this name do i like this upgrade i do it makes a lot of sense. I like the way they breaked this down youve owned this in the past ive owned it in the past exxonmobil is my biggest exposure in terms of the energy space. I still think of the big names, i still think its the best. And its had great performance this year as well. That and chevron have performed well exxon trailing a little bit. But i stick with exxon for a lot of Different Reasons most of which is the cash they put off and the what they do with it. I still prefer that company. You have been Underweight Energy very Underweight Energy which has been the right thing to do offer the last couple of years is it still yeah, were still underweight. We wouldnt be buying it but this is a high quality company. Reasonably traebltattractive st. If you dont own energy and want some representation, i would buy. Conoco has underperformed so far year to date a lot of that has to do with a less attractive dividend versus exxonmobil or shell. You also have uncertainty surrounding qatar. This is focused on the underperformance of conoco year to date. Pull it back over the last three years. Conoco up nearly 40 chevron up about 20 and exxonmobil, a name pete is tossing out, is down over the last three years if you are looking for under performance, exxonmobil is wher youll be able to create some it was conoco that cut its dividend, right . Yes, and theyve been patient on the a couple years ago. Here now the dividend matters in an environment where it wants the ceo made a big statement during all of the Occidental Petroleum fight for the companies when they were considering a variety of them and the ceo of Conoco Philips said no. Well not go after these guys at these crazy valuations if you can make it fit, go for it im paraphrasing but i think people like that discipline as well, judge, rather than chasing and trying to beat somebody out for an asset by leapfrogging higher and higher. I sold conoco two, three years ago and i havent missed i miss root canal more, i think, because energy is has undergone a you missed the 40 move well, i sold it pretty well over the last two, three years not that high, but you know what steve, i have all the confidence in the world. All right coming up, were picking up on some unusual options activity in that stock right there tesla year to date down 33 . So what does the Options Market say could be next . Jon and pete will give us that first the s p sector check energy is the leader we just talked about it. S p is up 0. 2 were back after this. And it really shows. With all that usaa offers why go with anybody else . We know their rates are good, we know that theyre always going to take care of us. It was an instant savings and i should have changed a long time ago. It was funny because when we would call another insurance company, hey would say oh we cant beat usaa were the webber family. Were the tenneys were the hayles, and were usaa members for life. Get your usaa Auto Insurance quote today. Your daily dashboard from fidelity. A visual snapshot of your investments. Key portfolio events. All in one place. Because when its decision time. You need decision tech. Only from fidelity. You need decision tech. Do you focus on in ttodays headwinds . Es, or plan for tomorrow . At kpmg, we believe success requires both. With our broad range of services and industry expertise, kpmg can help you anticipate tomorrow and deliver today. Kpmg were back you guys want to continue or are we good . Were good. A pretty interesting conversation phil is here. All right Hilton Grand Vacations has risen 18 in the past lets just go to options activity. Whatever you want to call it unusual activity unusual jon and peter at the telestrator. Another conversation over here Hilton Grand Vacations, judge. Look at this one 18 . Pretty quickly here, its up to about 31 a share, and they are buying options that expire in july at the 32 strike. Thats why we saw it on our volume heat seeker today as you can say its traded nearly 5,000 of those. Theyre just out of the money because the stock has been rising throughout the session. I bought these calls ill probably be in them, well, all the way until about a week before expiration. I wont ride it all the way. Take a look at whiting wll. You already talked about conoco. We talked about rig as well a little because theres nice 5 move out of rig. And this one making a 7 move and they are betting it continues. So just a short amount of time to go but only paying 20 cents i bought these calls ill be in them probably until the middle of next week when we come back from or just about half day when were going out to fourth of july vacation. Okay. You have an update, too. Yeah, we can do kweb here maybe you dont have to the script says do it. No, thats all right. This one up over a dollar right now from the time we got in these calls. Its the options have moved up nicely we took a little off still in these, though, pete thanks, judge thank you, doc. Judge, ive got a quickie for you. The xme. I dont like the fact weve had more and more etf stuff. Id rather be in individual names. This one hit and they were buying the up side just out of the money. July 28 calls. Giving themselves a little time for these to work. Not a lot. A little time. Everything continues to be short term but theyre only paying 50 cents for these. Its a nice size trade i like what were seeing here. This encompasses all of those types of names so i like what were seeing here and maybe theres enough of a move, enough of a push to get this stock to get up and over 28 if it does, these options will start to scream to the up side now a quickie for you as well. Rig. Transocean so a week ago, or so, we were here with jim cramer talking about rig. It was trading about 5. 40 5. 50, Something Like that they were buying the july 12th expiring six calls they were paying under 20 cents for those. Those are not only in the money but screaming to the up side it was trading around 6. 60 theyve tripled in value im trying to let people know what we think is, hey, when something doubles or triples youll take some trimming. Youll take half off i am sticking with some of it but ive been trimming and trimmed another little bit of a chunk as well. But i still think there may be more up side so im going to hold a piece but i love what were seeing in transocean real quickly look at tesla because theres a fair amount of put activity and usually when we see put activity well say somebody is pretty negative. In this case, they are buying about 16,000 of the 205 puts thats, obviously, a lot lower than where the stock is right here to me, this looks like protective buying because i saw blocks of stock being purchased along with those puts which creates a synthetic call im not as bearish on this particular activity. I think, in fact, it may be the opposite and somebody thats pretty smart buying stock and buying puts but theyre buying them at the 205 strike in july thats the strike theyre buying those at thats interesting. Come back over here. Lets do it well continue the conversation because i did say that phil lebeau sat down at the table always good to see you so we saw this put buying in tesla. Well, whats coming up in the near future that could be the reason why earnings are a little bit off into, you know, what, august, i think . And we get but we get q2 deliveries next week thats the big number get away from every day theres a different headline about whether its somebody in hr has left head of manufacturing has left maybe were working on battery cells as cnbc. Com reported today. All of those are interesting but none of those are moving the stock. Whats moving the stock right now is whether or not they hit the q2 numbers when it comes to deliveries what does that say about production more than a few people on wall street who are betting theyll not be able to hit the 93. 9. Thats the estimate out there. Greater than 90,000 in terms of deliveries and this sets up, can you come up with what you need in the second half of the year in order to hit 360,000 maybe theres some negativity built into what you said even though you dont think thats the crux of why you saw this to me it might have been somebody reacting to elon musks tweets because elon was saying, hey, we could have a record. Im sure youre following that one. When he said we might have record production coming up if somebody buys that and they wanted to get some stock. They are just setting a floor under it smart move. The Biggest Issue if you were a tesla bull right now is whether or not you truly believe they are going to come up with these numbers next week. And everyone that ive talked with, even the most optimistic, they all say, im not 100 certain. I want to believe in elon but im not 100 certain less than a minute. Quick questions from both of you. Go ahead so international, every time we hear the airline ceos talk on the conference calls, they talk about the strength in international. That is just fascinating given what were seeing in the global economy. Is that still present . With the exception of china where you heard some of the comments that were made, want to say about two or three weeks ago, ed bastion at delta last time he was on our air at a conference in california, he said theyre seeing a little bit of softness with regard to china. Now some of that could be trade related. Some of it could be a few other factors. Nothing that makes you run for the hills saying its falling off the edge but that is one area worth watching. But the rest of the international remains strong quick boeing. So the good news flow is going to continue over the next month. I think july is the month july is the month where we get the recertification flight we get them applying for recertive kagrecert i recertification after that flight is done and potentially the faa by the end of the month. Thats just from talking with people thats not rin in stone. There are times in the past where i thought this is going to be it, and then it gets pushed out. It still could be pushed out but july is setting up to be a crucial month for boeing none of this is written in stone. Thats just the feeling you get when you talk with people. What are the odds it will pass all of the test inspections . I think that flight is so scripted, it will pass everything theyve done that a million times in simulator they know what they expect it to react. The Software Patch is done the question becomes training for the International Pilots because thats going to be a focus for the regulators overseas glad we have you for one nugget on boeing which is moving as we speak. The ceo saying the company is now, according to axios, in talks to reimburse airlines after the grounding of the max not surprising. With every customer. Absolutely they have to reimburse the airlines the airlines have made that clear. Hes at the aspen ideas festi l festival thats expected. Im not sure if the stock is moving on that probably shouldnt because today it hasnt i own calls. Im very sensitive to daytoday movement and the stock unusual activity preview youll see decrease dramatically. The airline clear from the beginning in a lot of different ways. Theyve telegraphed it. Well have to pay these guys good stuff, phil. Good to be here viewer questions next on cesars, d. R. Horton and ulta beauty still time for you to reach us so. How are you feeling on a scale of one to five . Wait. One to five . When it comes to feelings, its more like five million. Theres everything from happy to extremely happy. Theres also angry. Im really angry, clive actually, really angry. Thank you. And seat 36b angry. Youre clive owen. And youre barefoot. Yeah. Theres also apprehension. Regret. Relief. Oh and theres empathy. Ah, i got this in zurich actually, whats the opposite of empathy . But what if your business could understand what your customers are feeling. And then do something about it. You can turn disappointment into gratitude. Clive, you got to try this. I cant im working. Turn problems into opportunities. Thanks drone. Change the future of your business change the whole experience. Alright who wants to go again . I do i do i have a really good feeling about this. Your daily dashboard from fidelity. A visual snapshot of your investments. Key portfolio events. All in one place. Because when its decision time. You need decision tech. Only from fidelity. Monitor their blood glucose every day. Which means they have to stop. And stick their fingers. Repeatedly. Today, lifechanging technology from abbott makes it possible to track glucose levels. Without drawing a drop of blood, again and again. The most personal technology, is technology with the power to change your life. Life. To the fullest. Heres whats coming up on the exchange. Weve heard it before but could the u. S. Be getting close to getting a deal done with china how skeptical should officials be about the latest trade headlines. Plus builders teaming up with investors what it means for the state of a pickup truck chevy is betting you will. Well discuss that in rapid fire with phil lebeau yes is the answer i love those pickups kelly, am i right . As long as it is not cbd. Well get you on that cbd, kelly. Okay. Different pickup sorry we went there with the truck. Sorry about that. Well answer your questions now. Pete, cathy in hudson, florida, Caesars Entertainment how should i proceed had. After what we heard and how it jumped to the upside, you get rid of it. A lot of people will hold things too long the news is out and the news is there. Get out. In nyc, dr horton for jon still like it during the show, scott, im seeing a lot of unusual activity in dr horton at the 43 strike thats just basically at the money. It round tripped very quickly, scott, from end of may to now it went 42, 46 and back down around the 42sh i like this activity im seeing right now. Across the hudson to jersey city a question for ulta beauty does ulta seem too precious not to be a take over . Ulta could be taken over but the news sent ulta initially down lower and that was a buying opportunity. Ulta a genz play. Amazon and ulta retail doesnt impact them. Honeywell is up year to date, what is your outlook for the second half of the year . Been a great stock. Trades above a market multiple but sold some businesses this year and what remains is higher growth, better margin and if there is a trade resolution, its good for honeywell. Good stuff. Nothing where is jonny o. When you need him, my man sometimes you have to give the opportunity to shine send in a bonus one the crypto and seema has more continuing its climb closing in on 13,000 and now up more than 250 . This year our traders today scott and jim. Scott, i have to start with you. Traders have been making sense of this data that shows investors have been building short positions and pairing back their bearish bets still, is that a concern oh, its absolutely a concern. Scott mentioned milestones price wise were near a milestone when it comes to Short Interest, speculative Short Interest total open interest in Bitcoin Futures is not that big. You can move it around and i think that is what is going on with the shorts. This is not just a Short Covering rally this is a short squeeze of epic proportions. Jim, what is the next level to watch for bitcoin okay. Once it went above 10,000 i think the next level is 15,000 nice, round number one thing to keep in mind the longer term like call it year and a half chart of bitcoin reminds me a little bit of the chart of gold. So, it suggests to me that were using these things for actually what they were supposed to but i think now as long as it stays above 10,000, well hit 15,000 jim and scott, thank you. For a more extensive deep dive on crypto currencies, that is on our futures. Be sure to check it out and Halftime Team is back with final trades in two minutes. See thats funny, i thought you traded options. Im not really a wall street guy. Whats the hesitation . Eh, it just feels too complicated, you know . Well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. Jj, will you break it down for this gentleman . Hey, ian. You know, at Td Ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until youre comfortable. I could be up for that. Thats taking options trading from wall st. To main st. Hey guys, wanna play some pool . Eh, im not really a pool guy. Whats the hesitation . Its just complicated. Stepbystep options trading support from Td Ameritrade is where people first gathered to form the stock exchangeee, which brought people together to invest in all the things that move us forward. Every day, invesco combines ideas with technology, data with inspiration, investors with solutions. Because the possibilities of life and investing are greater when we come together. Online now why jpmorgan says theres something wrong with this stock market rally. Its up w. No go to cnbc. Com your daily dashboard from fidelity. A visual snapshot of your investments. Key portfolio events. All in one place. Because when its decision time. You need decision tech. Only from fidelity. Why go with anybody else . We know their rates are good, we know that theyre always going to take care of us. It was an instant savings and i should have changed a long time ago. Were the tenneys and were usaa members for life. Call usaa to start saving on insurance today. Welcome back well get to final trades in just a minute. Be thankful our viewers really care about you we have a sympathy question for weiss. Is that a friend of yours . I do want to give a nod for giving me my own spot for this crown castle. Yes look, i still like it i havent sold any of it down with all the Interest Rate sensitives today i expect it will be volatile if you see the tenyear yield lets get some names from everybody. I am going dropbox. Marathon petroleum. Bought it during the show. Bob, still a good way to play trade talks. Ford motor company. Letter f good stuff. Dow right now is up about 90 points that does it for us. The exchange with kelly evans begins right now thank you, scott. Hi, everybody. Here is what is ahead of us. Have you heard this before treasury secretary mnuchin said the trade deal with china is 90 done how much stocks should investors put in this comment. If you air it, will they still watch. As we gear up for tonights democratic debate, media stocks are suffering a politics hangover a look at how worried investors should be at this fatigue. The 100,000 pickup truck and making bitcoin more successful all ahead in rapid fire today. We begin with these markets