It is great to have you with us happy friday our Investment Committee today, steve weiss, jim lebenthal, brin talkingten rob seechen, and one of forbes top 100 financial adviser. Also here with us on set, tom lee, the head of research at global advisers. Stocks sinking this hour were at session lows right now. Take a check on the dow. Were witnessing a 473point drop or 1. 8 decline here s p 500, this is close to session lows right now, down by 57 points, or almost two full percentage points. The nasdaq getting hit the hardest, down 2. 3 semiconductors taking it on the chin right now President Trumps tweet sparking this drop, firing back at chinas new tariffs. Trump saying u. S. Companies are hereby orders to immediately start looking for an alternative to china including bringing your Companies Home and making your products in the united states. The president also says he will be responding to china tariffs later on today theres a lot we still dont know what we do know is this is an escalation of the u. S. china trade war and how do you position yourself in light of that first off, this is going to continue we have been in this for three weeks since the latest trump tweet about 10 tariffs. Theres no context as far as what was going wrong up until august 1st that caused that. And theres also a lack of context in terms of whats going on today looking at the rest of the world. Europe is not doing well and its facing brexit germanys economy is contracting. So im putting this all together and saying the volatility that were seeing is going to increase and its going to stay here for a while. Now, to the question you asked of what do you do here, i think what you do here is you find Great Companies that are now selling not just at good prices but at great prices, and you hang on to them. Now, when i say great prices, mel, what im talking about here, companies that are buying back shares. Companies that are increasing their dividends. That all is a sign of health and that theyre generating cash flows. Thats what youre looking for cash flow Generating Companies in times of trouble. I think most people here would agree with those sentiments at the same time, do you want to buy those Great Companies that are in the cross hairs of a u. S. china trade war that seems to be ramping up as an investor, take a step back, and as taylor swift said, Everyone Needs to calm down. Were in this trade continuum where the administration talks tough on trade, markets sell off. The administration hits at some type of resolution, markets rally, and nothing happens so i think were in this continuum, and investors need to take a step back and exactly what jim said, look at a company with high quality cash flows this is an opportunity to step in to Good Companies so i think ultimately, well talk about the fed today you know, the u. S. Economy is growing very strong. Relative to the rest of the world, so we dont think this is going to put us into recession its just more volatility and trade rhetoric is this enough, though . It seems like a lot is resting on the shoulders of the u. S. Consumer, if you take a look at whats going on in germany, being in contraction worsening pmis the acknowledgment by fed chair powell that Global Growth is in fact deteriorating should we start being concerned about whats going on here in light of this rampup, because these tariffs, they might not hit the u. S. Extremely hard, 75 billion worth of goods so its kind of limited, but it will hit trade partners it will hit europe, for instance, and deepen the crisis there. You know, when i think about it, i think theres three wild cards to watch some are more obvious. One is obviously trade and given that china escalated this morning, it sounds like trump is going to escalate further. What are the implications of that obviously a wild card on our dashboard. The other wild card is the dissension in the fed and how aggressively are they ultimately going to act are they going to be interventionists and give the patient medicine before they actually ultimately need it in the u. S. To treat whats an infection that could spread . I think they probably should do that i dont know that they do that i think powell is kind of threading a needle as it relates to nat then your point is the u. S. Consumer, which still looks really, really strong, but they are a wild card. Oftentimes this negative news can spill over into the economy through the consumer and paralyze some Decision Making but assuming a steady state remains, which is slow growth, low inflation, and a high probability resolution, because the motivation is there on all these wild cards, i think youre in a market environment that is probably too cheap there is no alternative to equities in that environment, despite these risks. I met with lee kuperman, a friend of ours, and he asked me a question what is the right multiple when yields are negative pretty much around the world for stocks . Is it 20, 30 times earnings . I dont know if its 17 times. I think its higher than 17 times. Higher than we are right now. Higher than we are right now, if you dont get a recession thats the big wild card one of these things could throw us into a recession. Is this all enough to keep you bullish, tom are you just as convicted as you were a month ago, lets say . Yeah, i mean, i would say were still bullish. Its a tough day to be bullish i would say the biggest change in 2019 versus our baseline is i think theres a real change in the environment for Interest Rates, and thats what needs to be repositioned. I think lower Interest Rates ultimately is really good for consumers. I do think if youre a u. S. Equity investor and youre overweight things tied to the u. S. , its really constructive but you know, i think theres just a lot of macro risks. Can i ask this question this teed off what tom just said in terms of the u. S. Consumer and the impact lower Interest Rates, good for the consumer i agree. Is there a certain point at which its not, though hasnt everybody who has refinanced refinanced or is close to it . Everybody has gotten a morgan has gotten a morgan. If Interest Rates are this low, are you going to go out and get more debt . I dont know how much more, a certain point it actually translates into the wallets of the consumer i agree with you, and i believe that its hit that diminishing return factor because why are rates being low lowered . To me, the biggest risk to the market has always been trump since he got elected hes done some good things buzz he has a way of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory witness today. You cant have confidence in the markets when you get these kneejerk reactions that are completely illogical we saw today, we saw that china came out, the market traded down talking about the dow about 150. Then powell came out and the market recovered most of the losses then trump comes out and the market takes a massive leg down. So hes going to come out, hes going to beat up powell more, but where is that going to leave companies . Where is that going to leave investors . Its going to leave companies with greater uncertainty right . This comes out of this asinine order to stop doing business in china. He cant do that hes not king. Hes not the premier so all it does is show uncertainty to the ceos. So the point to that is that theyre not going to be spending on capx it increases the possibility of recession and brings the timeframe in closer. So what i did today was, luckily, i didnt wait for this to happen. I didnt expect this to happen i should have expected it to happen because thats what he does, right . So hes probably tied up, you know, i guess it was a dollar day at mcdonalds. So the only reason for the delay between chinas pronouncement and his was he was probably just stuffing himself with big macs otherwise, it would have happened right after thats a joke, by the way im not so sure its a joke what i did is sold the stash because i had way too much beta in my portfolio. So i think you have to take the beta out we always look for companies with good cash flow. So thats not changed. If thats your strategy, thats a strategy but i do think it pays to be lighter in the market these days and to keep cash for opportunities like today were going to trade this much more. We do want to check in with eamon javers at the white house. Steve weiss here, eamon, had mentioned President Trump is not king, so when he hereby orders companies to do x, y, and z what power does he have to follow through on some of these threats . Theres no legal basis for that, melissa. So theres no constitutional basis for that so we have asked white house aides for an explanation of what the president is thinking when he tweets that the aides simply have no explanation at this point. What we know as of right now this second, the president is meeting with his trade team here at the white house i spotted Peter Navarro and Robert Lighthizer waiting outside the oval office before the meeting began. We know theyre in there we can also infer that lady kudlow would likely be in there. I cant say that for sure, but Peter Navarro generally would not be in a meeting with the president that larry kudlow is also not in. That gives you a sense of who the cast of characters are around the president , but aides not able to give us any indication whether the president will make a formal announcement, or what this response is that hes talking about in terms of his response to the china tariffs. So theres this period of uncertainty now. We dont know for how many hours its going to last throughout the day as aides sort of scramble to figure out what the president is tweeting about and what their plan is and getting everybody on the same page as soon as the meeting ends well try to bring you whatever the results were, but meanwhile, people here just simply offering really no basis for the president to tweet that he hereby orders American Companies to do something. Cant we play washingtons favorite parlor game with you, what could the president possibly do next i know thats a broad question, but in terms of retaliation against what china has done this morning, what is what are the most likely tools left in the tool box of President Trump at this point is it because if he doesnt push back the tariffs, the retail tariffs, to december 15th and pulls them back, that hurts us so what else is on the table i mean, the mind reels. Right . There are a number of options. And i would hate to just sort of speculate wildly you know, but certainly, the president could adjust that timeframe on the september 1st tariffs. Hes moved that timeline a few times. From the time he first announced those tariffs until between that time and september 1st he could do that again there are other thingshe could do that i wouldnt want to speculate about because i have no reporting to back it up, but we do know that the president is leaving tonight to go to the g7 in france. And thats going to be a multilateral event focused on trade, tariffs, and this Global Economic situation hes going to be meeting with a number of foreign leaders who dont see eye to eye with him on any of this, if not on all much of this if not all of it. The potential for the president to go into that meeting coming off this day, how that meeting could go over the weekend is sort of anybodys guess at this point, i think im going to be jumping on a flight this afternoon to get to france and well see what happens over the weekend the president also tweeted, eamon, and its mindblowing how were covering the tweets so religiously, but we have a very strong dollar and a very weak fed. Quote unquote work brilliantly with both the u. S. Will do great. That also opens itself up for interpretation in terms of working brilliantly with both the u. S. Dollar and the federal reserve. Right unclear what the president means by that. In terms of the strong dollar, the president tweeted a while back that he said, you know, you would think as u. S. President , i like the dollar being so high. I dont like that. That was sort of a radical thing for an american president to tweet. We just have not seen president s overtly appearing to campaign for a lower dollar before. I asked larry kudlow about that last night here on the driveway. Larry kudlow said, no, no, the president doesnt mean that he wants a lower dollar the president means that he wants our counterparties around the world to stop manipulating their currency its clear from the context of the president s tweets that he doesnt like the dollar being as strong as it is. He would like it to come down in order to benefit american exporters. But its just not an approach we have seen from an american president before this publicly maybe president s have been privately frustrated with a strong dollar before, but we have not seen this kind of sort of cheerleading on the dollar from an american president in a negative direction as were seeing now all right, eamon, were going to let you go. A lot to cover from the white house. Thank you so much, eamon javers joining us from washington, d. C. Jim. I have to say this, and im sorry to jump in this idea of forbidding companies or banning companies from doing business with china is the stupidest thing i have heard. China is 15 of our gdp. Were going to say general motor,s you have to undue all the joint ventures when china is your biggest market. I try to remain measured, but this is the stupidest idea i have ever heard. I agree with the intent behind the trade discussions china has been ripping us off. Its documented time and time again. Gm cant go in and do business there unless they share their technology with china. I just disagree with the method of going about it, which is destabilizing, and also whats coming out of the white house in terms of where we are in the trade discussions has been shown repeatedly to be disingenuous, outright misstatements in a material sense you could think from the conversations we had last week that were moving along, china wants a deal very badly. And that got the market lifted a little bit how about kudlow last night kudlow has always been king dollar now hes not king dollar he said were having good talks. Last night, he said tax cuts are back on the table. Right so how do you invest in this kind of environment . Thats why you need this healthy level of cash in your portfolio. Because even goodcompanies get destroyed. I think also you have to understand if you take a step back and say we all understand President Trump likes to tweet he likes to give us a direct line to what hes thinking thats just it is what it is, and it doesnt make any good energy to try to fight that. Its like take what he says, but understand when china comes out and says were going to have were going to tariff 75 billion of your goods, xi has to be strong as well because hes dealing with hong kong, which is a whole other issue, and so i think this is just continuing to play itself out in the headlines while hopefully things are happening behind the scenes, where level heads are morep prevailing this is where its opportunis opportunistic. Theres a high probability we get another tweet next week that erases the s p down 167. I agree, if you look at the motivations, trump certainly has the political motivations with an election coming up to get a deal china 100 has the economic motivation to get something done the noise in between is going to create volatility. It also creates an environment where to these guyss points, you can overplay your hand if you overplay your hand, theres risk of a recession. The probabilities of that, though, are still low given the fundamental backdrop that exists in the u. S and given the fact that the motivations exist to get something done and so how do you invest i think you have to do exactly what steve is saying, which is weve taken off some of our overweights in Long Duration because we felt like we got most of the juice out of the orange there. We just did it yesterday turned out to be a great shortterm trade managing risk would have been better right now to take it off, but we also barbelled that with Long Duration assets, specifically stocks that we are taking intelligent risks on thats worked too. By the way, there are some question this morning as to whether or not china had much more leverage to go considering they dont take in as many goods as we take in from china but were getting word from the editor in chief of the global times, which is seen as the mouthpiece of the communist party in china and he tweeted just about ten minutes ago, without chinas market of 1. 4 billion people, u. S. Farm goods will have nowhere to go, farmers going bankrupt, Energy Products will also lose an infinite market china auto market is bigger than the u. S. All of this doesnt have to happen i hate this trade war. It gives you a glimpse of what could happen if china adopted other means outside of tariffs i dont think that if you look at the farmers, obviously, thats a huge base for President Trump. You know, going into reelection. And so to just were not going to continue just to fully subsidize farmers going ad infinitum because china doesnt buy our goods anybody. Its a good tweet, a good headline, but i dont think its realistic were going to let the rails come off and decouple ourselves from the global economy. Today i think is just an overreaction to the continued tweets we had since the election you just said to take President Trumps tweets and just read them and take them at the end of one of his tweets, he said we dont need china. Thats what im saying, youre getting insights into what hes thinking hes gnaw going through his cabinet, not going through discussions with other experts in those regions hes literally giving us insights into his views. Im sorry, i didnt mean to cut you off, but you have to be mindful of that from a portfolio construction standpoint. And if you look at the highest risk aspects in a portfolio, its the energy companies, maybe not mlps because theyre more domestically focusefocused, bute Energy Sector which is exposed to a global slowdown tech is incredibly exposed to trade, and its prices are really high they had a really meaningful run, and typically in a late cycle environment, you pay up for growth theres this exogenous factor that now you have to Pay Attention to and so one of the things we have done, and just yesterday, is we went overweight the staples again. Were focused on where its strong the other Consumer Sectors communication services, consumer discretionary. Consumer staples and you know, i think were being more mindful of some of those cyclical aspects with direct exposure to trade and direct exposure to slowdowns i think you have to be careful, but still invested i want to get the take of the strategist here on the desk. Tom. How would you i mean, do you think the run that we have seen in staples, utilities, do you stick with that . Theres a real interest for investors to find bond proxies in equities. Thats really helping rerate those stocks if one thing to keep in mind, this is a response to lower rates. U. S. Consumers are also going to benefit from lower rates and i think you could have easily reversed that tweet that was just put out by the chinese writer and the u. S. Is the single largest market. If you close down the u. S. Market, where does china sell its goods . So i do think that its a noisy environment. One of the big changes, though, is lower rates u. S. Consumers are really going to benefit from a low mortgage if the tenyear goes to 1 , i think youll have a consumer boom tom, let me ask you this. We always talk about how consumers benefit from lower rates. But most people in the country have pensions from the countries they work with, right . Most people eventually want to retire and they look at what their return is on their retirement accounts right . A lot of it is you get closer to retirement age, Wealth Managers will tell you that more going into credit than go into equities thats a prudent thing to do then you have the retirees living on a fixed income their income has gone down, down, down pension returns have gone down, down, down but theres no solution for that, steve. But the solution is, my point is, im not talking about a solution im talking about lower rates are not positive tom well, you know, at the moment, the most important consumer is the millennial if you look at any of the credit card data, theyre the only age group growing. In japan with lower incomes, by the way. But growing but in japan, you know, older consumers like low rates because its disinflationary so actually, ironically, you know, japanese households made a lot of money because japanese Bond Exposure is up 40 this year, but they have im not saying its a good thing japan hasnt grown, what, 10, 15 years you cant emulate that theres a dichotomy i can bridge the gap on the one hand, millennials, entering their peak earning years. Might not be as high as normal household formation, looking to borrow, build homes, buy homes and Interest Rates being low is helpful there. Steves point on the saving economy, for retirement, you need actuarial yeed to be in a position to spend money at that point in time. Whats more important . I would say its probably the millennials, to drive Economic Growth so low rates, i think at the margin, help and asset prices, you know, while liabilities have gone up in where they were precrisis levels, asset prices are also 60 above that, so thats been a really strong element to consumer balance sheets. I think to what i think steves absolutely correct, though, that theres so many baby boomers at retirement as Wealth Managers, when clients come in, the first thing we show them is the yield curve. This is the riskfree rate, this is what cash can get you because you cant make up another number, right . So this low rate environment, its still very punitive for savers its punitive for the retirees as well as the Pension Funds themselves trying to match these assets and viabilities thats where investors looking to Asset Allocation, you have to think about your Asset Allocation different we do covered calls, because you need to recreate this income stream because youre not going to get it in the 10, 20, 30, and if we issue a 50year treasury, youre probably not going to get the yield you need going forward, so you really, as an investor, need to pivot and think about how is my allocation going to be for the next ten and 20 years because its not going to be in the tenyear treasury because youre going to grow poor savings youre not equaling inflation with a 30year bond. I mean, its crazy you guys are missing the point thats right in front of us. Before we talk about tenyear anything, before we talk about the strength of the consumer next year, were hurdling down the path of a meaningful recession next year. Not a small one like hang on, hang on. Not a small one meaningful recession. Not a small one like President Trump was talking about earlier this week. Yeah, tom, i see your eyebrows raise, but think about this. If were saying to companies you cant do business in china, which is literally 15 of global gdp, theres no way that theyre going to expand capx, no way theyre going to continue to hire think about what this means for steel companies, what it means for Manufacturing Companies across the country and across the globe. Thats too alarmist, i think, for me listen, rob, it is alarmist okay the idea out there that were somehow and by the way, i think its canard, but its making me angry, the idea that were going to forbid companies from doing business with china its posture. You cant do it. Let me take the flip side of that its incredibly china could say no to jvs in china, and then what they have allowed u. S. Companies to operate through joint ventures they can say, you know what they already said no to Foreign Investments in the u. S right . They cut it back substantially and i think its as alarmist, potentially, although probably too overoptimistic to attribute trump to being machiavellian, when i think hes more chauncey gardener and number one, number two, if you said i know machiavelli. Not chauncey gardener. This guy is watching tv, the last thing he comes in his head, he talks about it. Plus, if you sat back ten years ago and said the market is going to expand for ten years, even though it has for the last year and a half, the economy is going to expand for ten years, people would sit and say youre crazy right . Its never gone on that long here were saying its going to continue people refuse to see that theres another side of the coin and thats recession and thats going to happen you said it was alarmist thats alarmist i think the degree with which he said it is alarmist because the high probability outcome is still rational minds prevail thats what im saying you dont have rational minds. Take a pause. I want to get dividend ideas from you well, you know, i think one of the interesting things this week and we wrote about it to our clients, a lot of Corporate Bonds rallied this week, did even better than the moves in the tenyear, and they had their stocks fall. I think these sort of dividend yielders where the credit is doing well are interesting stocks among the names are things like General Motors, kohls, darden, raytheon, caterpillar. A couple of them are in the direct cross hairs of this trade war. Deep cyclicals. I think as much as its tough to do, you might be running into the epicenter if jim is right and this is just rhetoric and nothing to follow through. It better be rhetoric by the way, i like those calls General Motors down 3 today im an owner of it as we have been talking about, they have joint ventures in china, so theyre not importing autos subject to tariffs thats not why its down 3 . Its down 3 as a barometer of whats going to happen to global gdp if we continue hurdling down this path. Five points off the session lows right now the s p 500. Heres whats coming up on the Halftime Report. Just buy it. Guggenheim name nike its best stock idea in retail but is it a good play for your portfolio . Thats our call of the day plus, the Investment Committee is ready to answer your questions to reach us, go to cnbc. Com halftime. Or tweet us using the hashtag askhalftime Halftime Report is back in two minutes. Looked at chart patterns. Ive even built my own historic trading model. And youre still not sure if you want to make the trade . Exactly. Sounds like a case of analysis paralysis. Is there a cure . Td ameritrades trade desk. They can help gut check your strategies and answer all your toughest questions. Sounds perfect. See, your stress level was here and i got you down to here, ive done my job. Call for a strategy gut check with td ameritrade. Welcome back, everyone im sue herera heres your cnbc news update at this hour. Protesters are filling the streets in denmark, london, and spain to push g7 leaders to action on the amazon rain forest fires. The demonstrators accuse brazil of not doing enough to fight those fires. Brazil says its army is ready to protect the rain forest. And a new development in the case against Actor Jussie Smollett former u. S. Attorney dan webb has been tapped as a special prosecutor to investigate why the Cook County States Attorney Office suddenly dropped all the charges against him. Smollett is accused of staging a racist and homophobic attack against himself in chicago massachusetts democrat seth moulton is ending his 2020 president ial campaign. The u. S. Representative and iraqi war veteran did not qualify for the first two democratic debates and its a distinction that no ball club wants to have the Baltimore Orioles now hold the Major League Baseball record for the number of home runs given up in a single season. 260. The old number was 258, held by the 2016 Cincinnati Reds you are up to date thats the news update this hour melissa, back to you sue, thank you. Nike shares are up nearly 10 this year, and today, guggenheim is naming the stock its new best idea, saying nike is best positioned to mitigate tariff risks it is our call of the day. Jim, you used to own nike at one point. No more. Why . I sold it about a year, year and a half ago, and its been mostly flat over the last year i dont dislike the stock. It trades at about 24 times forward earnings they have been doing a lot of initiative its just not my favorite idea im not rearing to go back into it i know they have been doing things, trying to get subscription services, its fine at 24 times. Its fairly priced i think it go wheres the market goes a granny shot stock, tom, at your shop. What does that mean . Your granny shots are stocks that have high probability success. They fall into several thematic portfolios nike is a great play on not only what we call the millennial trade, because i think its success is because of that demographic, but its also, you know, a winner of in this world of asset light and its also interestingly a company that benefits from automation so i think its one of those, you can own it for many reasons, and as jim says, its valuation is reasonable. Rob, you made it clear at the beginning you like the consumer at this point. Youre overweight discretionary . We are. I just think you have to watch it you have to Pay Attention. Theres a lot happening in the news right now and on the headlines that can spill over into the real economy. I think it does it through business spending but also through Consumer Spending. But by and large, the consumer is very healthy. I think with their call today, you know, today is a good day to buy it if youre going to go into nike they have a price target of 100 the Tokyo Olympics which they cite is in 2020. That seems like a leap year away from there, but its like one of the best brand names in the country. And so if you want to take advantage of it, today is a good day with the chinatrade rhetoric causing it down 2. 5 , 3 its been a trading stock over the last year, year and a half, as jim points out. Market goes up, its going to go up clearly high quality clearly a great global brand i think you have more upside potentially with lululemon still, even at this elevated level. Plus, weisz has that air jordan collection he has im not a Michael Jordan fan so thats unlikely can i ask about foot locker if nike is doing well, theoretically i have never liked foot locker im trying to be positive, i was so harsh earlier in the show you dont have to use foot locker to be positive. Sometimes foot locker works basically, having a brick and mortar outlet these days is a challenging place. You know, when were talking about cash flow positive stocks at the beginning of the show, i was thinking what is the opposite the opposite is speculative stocks anything having to do with brick and Mortar Retail with a new notable exceptions is really speculative to me. The issue with foot locker is if you buy running shoes, you can buy them on nike, try them for a month, and return them if they dont fit with foot locker, youre stuck with them. So its so easy to buy online. As nike has increased their presence, which they have, its coming out of foot locker and other retailers. Bryn, you have brought along new trades do tell. Ill start from a macro allocation trade its important what you dont own as much as what you do own in a portfolio last year, we actually exited our develop international trade. Earlier, end of last month, we sold emerging Market Equities and bought gold. So we added gold as a position i think you can own gold for a lot of Different Reasons inflation, deflation, we think its really important as global central banks, not the u. S. , have started a zero Interest Rate policy. And you have devaluations of currency globally. Gold has been a value for thousands of years, is a good hedge against the other aspects, but also technically, if you look at gold going back really 2013, when it hit its peak, its had a nice sixyear base and just broke out last month. So not only do we like well say the fundamentals from a macroeconomic standpoint, we like technically that gold is breaking out so we think we like emerging markets long term, but i think in a portfolio, as you see today, and earlier last week, emerging markets continue to sell off, and we would rather be more insular in the u. S. With gold as a hedge to be an uncorrelated asset against u. S. Equities and more balance the risk what happened to the argument that bitcoin was a safe haven asset . In the time we saw it run up to more than 15,000 and then pull back, tom, you know, nothing has changed in the world what mel is saying, should have left after the a block. I think bitcoin is still in search of finding its place. I think it does serve pretty well as a macro hedge. This year, its done great uncorrelated to other assets, and even today its up is it as proven a mechanical hedge as gold . No and i think thats why bitcoin is still a very small universe of holders its not institutionally hold but those are coming gold was an extremely volatile asset in the first ten years it freely traded. People forget, gold vol back then looks like bitcoin vol now. Wasnt that because there werent many Trading Instruments for gold does that comparison hold . Yes and no, because at the end of the day, what really matters for bitcoin is true fiat to crypto on ramps and thats not necessarily through the cme product, which is really just cash settled it really requires exchanges and people to hold it. Bitcoin is tiny. I think theres probably really only at most a million real holders of bitcoin globally. Give me a price target before we go to break i think bitcoin can make an alltime high this year. An alltime high. I agree with you that bitcoin is uncorrelated, but its uncorrelated to reality. I just dont think theres really anything there at the end othe day i like your gold call gold can be both its everything to everybody. But we know that it is a safe haven. Okay. We have more retail trades straight ahead on the blitz and talking has bro, gap, and dillards. First, lets look at the s p 500 sectors. Technology feeling the most pain down by 2. 4 really being led down by the semiconductor index, which is down by re tmohan 3 Halftime Report is back right after this what about him . Lets do it. Come on. This summer, add a new member to the family. Hurry in and lease the glc 300 suv for just 419 a month with credit toward your first months payment at the mercedesbenz summer event. Going on now. The trader blitz with retail names. Hasbro trading lower as the toy maker announced it would buy Entertainment One for about 4 billion. Thats the home of peppa the pig. I think hasbro, the home of my little pony, buying peppa the pig for 4 billion, peppa the pig was 1. 5 billion in revenues in 2019. So i think hasbro is wanting to have global synergies, increase their brand name the risk of the stock is they paid a hefty multiple and they took on a lot of leverage. Oo well see if the pig and pony can get along. Dillards raising their dividend on the one hand, i said it earlier. You Want Companies increasing their dividends. On the other hand, i said to you also earlier, dont be in brick and mortar which one weighs out dont be in brick and mortar gap posting a quarterly beat, but shares are lower as Comp Store Sales fell by 4 tom. You know, its tough to really decide what to do with this name because theres a great dividend yield, and the dividends have to free cash flow, in general in this environment, you want to own high quality names with operating momentum despite all these misses, retail is outperforming this week still down by about 5 for the month. Rob sechan yeah, i think this continues to be a story of haves and have nots those who have global exposure suffer a little bit. Those that have managed to transition to a healthy Online Platform have done well. We have been overweight the consumer because its probably the strongest part of our economy. And that has worked really well for us we continue to be overweight all right well, the Investment Committee is answering your questions next you can reach us at cnbc. Com halftime or tweet us. Plus, dr. Jay, jon najarian, tracking activity in the Options Market hell join une fs xtrom chicago with his latest trades stay tuned we have lots of Great Questions coming in on how to trade the markets latest moves and were going to answer some of them. Danny in sacramento wants to know if a pullback is coming for target the stock hit a new alltime high earlier this week on the heels of very strong earnings. Feels like today may be that day. It will go down if you have down 400 on the dow days like today but outside of what the market is doing, this is clearly a winner one of the very few winners in brick and Mortar Retails if you get an opportunity like today, why not add to it next up, joe in california asks if netflix is a buy, hold, or sell at this level . Weisz used to own it i suspect your answer is its a cell look, i think the streaming wars are yet to be played out. I own disney, but clearly competition is getting a lot stronger always so much content out there. They have the best installed base but i just dont think the stocks go much if anywhere we have a question on disney from shara in massachusetts. She wants to trade on disney you own it as you know, disney was rerated a few months ago when they came out with their disney plus initiative, which will launch later on in october or november the stock sold off about ten points since its high. I think look for weakness and buy here because long term, i think disney is going to be the ax and go against netflix quite successfully finally, tony in atlanta, georgia, writes what would you recommend my starting portfolio be if i have 10,000 rob, why dont you take that one . Okay, i would say first its tough without context, but i assume the starting portfolio would be for a young person. And when i look at whats available out there, there is no alternatives to stocks i said it early on, but i think you have to be mindful of the risks that are on the dashboard right now. I would start a dollar cost averaging strategy that has price acceleration metrics, i would invest 25 today on this selloff and have the balancing cash and i would move forward based on further price declines. You can just buy the s p or buy sectors that you like that are more tethered to whats strong right now like the Consumer Sectors of the economy thats how i think about it. Good advice there options bulls, meantime, betting on silver amid todays selloff jon najarian joining us from chicago with more on that. Doc, what are you looking at well, mel, you could track silvers movement directly with the president s tweets and in fact, as soon as those tweets hit, the silver contract just started to pop. I was looking at both because i was waiting to see exactly how silver and gold bugs would react to powell. And then just minutes later, of course, we got the president so silver made about a 2 pop. We noted huge buying in a host of the precious metal names. In particular, the slv, the broad market silver contract etf, so in that one, mel, they were buying the april 16 calls bought them in big numbers right away the stock popped about 2 . And that gives you a lot of time, mel. Somebody wants to simulate ownership well out into the future second one, and i have to make it fast, but take a look at qqq because that etf for the nasdaq had big put buying at the october 178 strike they bought a lot of those really quick sold the 159 puts against it that tells me they thought volatility was too high and they wanted to lessen the impact of that by doing a spread, mel. So its about a 5 out of the money protection or bet that we go lower, mel. All right, jon, thank you have a great weekend jon najarian in chicago for us straight ahead, your earnings game plan for the week. Well go around the desk on hp, tiffany, best buy, and more. Halftime report is back in two minutes. But perhaps this year, a more exhilarating endeavor awaits. Defy the laws of human nature,at the summer of audi sales event. Get exceptional offers now. Doprevagen is the number oneild mempharmacistrecommendeding . Memory support brand. You can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. Were pretty different. Somos muy diferentes. Muy diferentes. vo everyone in your family is different. Thats why verizon now offers more plans to mix and match so everyone gets what they need without paying for things they dont. New plans now starting at 35. The network more people rely on gives you more. Some big names reporting earnings next week we will hear from best buy, ulta, and more the Dollar Stores have been really well. Id like to see that continue. Despite all the negative things ive been saying about retail, i actually want brick and Mortar Retail to work thats a wide swath of industry and employment in the u. S. , so i do want it to work id like to see Dollar General do well. Ulta is kind of an up and down for the last few years so id like to see them regain some traction, too. You are looking for some broader trends i think its still going to be important to say, look, we got a lower rate environment if the consumers healthy its good so i think you want to see next week how global retailers do versus u. S. Based. Macys pains are ultas gains. Women do not buy makeup in the Department Store anymore you see the structural shift it has phenomenal manage its a good longterm buy and well see how they do next week. Where do you buy your makeup, weiss . By the truck load [ laughter ] i told you, mel whats on your radar . I dont think any of the companies are particularly important in terms of getting undercurrents. But what will be important is ceo commentary i really dont care about any of those companies. I dont know why he sits at home depot i feel like theres a lot of spackling. I think hes impervious when youre top of the hill over the hill, top of the hill im watching more of the Economic Data as it relates to the consumer you have Consumer Confidence on tuesday, Consumer Spending friday you have some of the inflation data coming out on friday as well im more focused on the economic there is this notion that loretta in her interview this morning with Steve Liesman that we could be talking ourselves into, you know, waning confidence at this point her biggest concern which i totally agree with is Business Confidence because the consumers very strong, but if Business Confidence gets really shaken, they stop hiring, and then that trickles down to the consumer so i think we cant ignore even remotely what the fed is saying about Business Confidence and how important that is. Consumer confidence has come down as well when days like today Consumer Confidence will come down a little more. So i agree with her, and ive been saying that thats the dialogue. I agree with that that spillover into the real economy is really can be impactiful final trades straight ahead on the half. Are we supposed to dance . Boy boy bands without dancing are just ok. Get a better than just ok unlimited plan with spotify premium included on americas best network. Only from at t. More for your thing. Thats our thing. I switched to geico and saved hundreds. Thats a win. But its not the only reason i switched. Geicos a company i can trust, with over 75 years of great savings and service. Now thats a winwin. Switch to geico. Its a winwin. Switch to geico. Announcer fidelity is redefining value with zero account fees for brokerage accounts. And zero minimums to open an account. At fidelity those zeros really add up. Maybe ill win saved by zero heres your snapshot of the market s p down by 5 were at the session lows on witi crude and the twos tens just three1 hundredth final trade. I think structure, lower rates is good for Home Builders and their play on millennials hitting the prime income years i think most of the juice is out of the orange here Omega Health Care pays a 6. 92 yield. Great for longterm demographics cvs has nothing to do with china. Disney since i have the last word i buy the exchange begins right now. Thanks, melissa and welcome to the exchange, everybody. Fed chair powell tried to bring calm to the markets by say s the fed would act as appropriate but President Trump not happy with those remarks the president railing that the fed, quote, as usual, did nothing. And then upped the ante by ordering American Companies out of china this after china earlier today said its imposing more tariffs on the u. S. The president also teased that there would be more of a u. S. Response to come perhaps as soon as this afternoon. Heres the reaction in the market stocks are down sharply. We are very much near session lows