More rate cuts or more could be on the way and get this a week that saw a thousand point swing in the market nearly every day was ultimately a giant round trip to no where the s p 500 ended the week pretty much exactly where it began. I think the dow was able to finish slightly higher karen finerman, this was going to be your chart of the week we were doing the next block we have to lead with it. Everything is fluid right now. What happened this week. If you look at the chart you will see a one and change move for the week imagine what a different feel we would have if every day during the week the market moved 30 backups each day and that would get us right where we are right now thats the change in the week. But thats not how it happened we have a very different market. A treacherous market, up a thousand, down a thousand day, back and forth, is it really its a scary market. And we dont know where the bottom is going to be. But it was starting to feel panicky here and so if you are a longterm investor you sort of put your tail in which we did. Do we take solace in the bounceback, maybe the double bottom, the fear bottom. Im going dsh did. The answer is no. Im disagreeing no one is saying nothing happen. Only karen spoke so. The bond market is not where it started the we can. The bond market down 35 backups on the 10year the short end came in as well. Thats really scary. The question you have to ask yourself is are the changes in asset prices so week over week on equities but overall since starting the pullback are they proportionate to the decline in fundamentals or price. And credit spreads widened this week. We content go out on friday to me feeling i dont think we should feel good taurl. You are saying look at bonds not stocks. Absolutely you should and i realize there is the dynamics, deflationary trend and other parts of the world maybe pulling this into a relative value trade. That was two years ago this is a different dynamic. This is deja vu. Last friday, the same thing. Rallying off the bottom and then the fed waiting to do something over the weekend. Go ahead, brian. Thats it you know, for me, i covered some shorts i had in this afternoon because am i concerned about another rate cut on sunday evening . Some sort of stimulus coming i dont think any of those will in the long run work but i dont want to wake up monday morning with the market up, you know, the dow up 1,000 points if im short. Take the profits, move on. I think thats what happened at the end of the day here. Imaad not take any solace dsh. Short covering. You were down at the nyse was it short covering. That sounds like human nature a lot of what happened lets remember last week on friday was rebalance the last day of the month. You had a lot of money had to go into equities. About 30 billion had to be bought into equity side they dont have to do it they dont have to do it that day, we could have seen that transpiring this week but to your point, if you were short, why would you roll the dice into the weekend . You have pence meeting with the cruise lines tomorrow. You can hear something from the fed. You can hear something about tax breaks there is a lot that can go wrong if you are short you cover. The hold on you guys are talking about sort of a short term thing, a sunday surprise is there any reason to be longer term or medium term optimistic because of the way we closed or is it just a monday morning setup. Its more optimistic we didnt get pressed on the lows because for using brian as an example, if you were overwhelmingly negative as you have been in the past, you could have pressed your you could have said, you know the feds not doing anything we need a vaccine, we dont need a cut. I dont care what mike pence does on the tax side for cruise lines i dont care about stimulus or anything else. And you press shorts we didnt see that down 900 points in the dow and fought back that to me if you are looking for a Silver Lining and the fact that we held 285 a in the s p cash, to me, was slightly constructive in a world that in in a very opaque world. If we get some of the things on sunday night, a fed rate cut or stimulus package i will put out the shorts again because thats not the solution to this. Steve is talking about 2 00 today or maybe 1 00 you looked appear said the market is going to close below last friday and that was going to be significant. Technically however you want to look at this small recovery, but if you look at charts absolutely broken, its nice to listen to carter and get miss view a week after we really kind of got to that place and it looks like not a lot happened but to me a lot of the charts there is no reason equities get away from you here i dont care what the fed tells me there is zero. I heard companies all week coming out saying what certainly will be not just lower Earnings Growth but how about negative growth contraction in eps i think equities are a pricing mechanism. But its back to i look at bonds and stocks and isay something is not righ on one of these sides. And you know it might be a bit of both. But the bond market to me is difficult. Lets look at the fundamentals, right . And i know listen a huge debate about this i was at an event the other night and half the people thought it was a media created hoax and others south by southwest cancelled, tens of millions of Economic Activity thats obviously a big are example, karen so when we look at that just as a litmus test for the economy, do you think that the economic fundamentals in a month because the market is a discounting mechanism will the economic fundamentals in a month or two or three mirror the kind of market moves we have seen is the market going to be right. Is the market going to be right that it gets worse and so it trades well talk about airlines down 40 and people on social media will say i was on a flight it was full. And think theyre being go ahead. I see a real contraction in Economic Activity. I think thats getting priced in right now. The question i think is, i mean, you want to talk about not necessarily coronvirus but the economy. But this is really on the heels of the coronvirus numbers, right . How quickly do we ramp up the scurve like in china and start to plateau were a while away from that i think. But i think people are looking through that and i think there is i dont think of the market as a monolithe where all stocks are priced the same. Theyre not some are in more danger than others if you look at some of the great Balance Sheets thats what i want to own. You Start Talking about the airlines when you look at delta im only trading off i really rest on technicals because i have a tough time as im sure the rest of you do trying to figure out the fundamentals behind coronvirus so when i look at delta and its trading and sticking to the 46 level which has been pretty good support for the past i dont know how long, i think you could buy that stock when you look at where its come from, these airlines have been in 20, 30, 40 so to brians question, i think they priced in a heck of a lot of negativity. And how many times do we say its a kitchen sink quarter . This if anything everyone is getting a pass no one holds anyone tim. As we talk about bottom up stories and the airlines are a good place to do it because they are center of the storm. And you look at the eps markdowns i think they are proportionate there are Balance Sheets in the significant part of the secretary are, starting to see the load rates, everything about the capacity, also seems to be getting reeled in and they are cutting prices. I got fladed dsh my email bo got flooded with promotions from big Airlines Europe never looked better thats concerning me but it gets back to, look, you cant look at it from the side of hey is the virus going to impact growth x and does that equate to what stocks have done . You have to ask yourself was the market priced three weeks ago or a month ago in the right place if you think the market was fine you have every reason to say that the coronvirus is a short and midterm. We will get through it and despite any conference you go to, it doesnt really matter. Isnt the key more of how long this goes on . I mean, because, we had fertitta on power lunch owns 600 plus restaurants, five casinos and Hotels Restaurants he said his Restaurant Business was down a Million Dollars a day in revenue usually does 12. 8 and a half on the revenue side extrapolate that out two months, back to normal thats a hit but not the end of the world. Isnt this more about how long, karen, the slowdown goes. How long and it doesnt get worse. Lets say airlines use 30 of capacity for for a month thats a a lot different than six months. Absolutely. But not all months are the same. If we head into summer when when they make a lot of money and things are like or like we are going into, that will be bad for them, injury there will be more downside if were not feeling better about where the u. S. Is in the coronvirus evolution by summer. I would just say, though, dont discount the fact that this started as a Health Crisis but its quickly morphing into a real economic problem. The more people, weather its panic fear, justified or not, as people stop going to tillmans restaurants, and people stop flying, most people dont have savings, you are dipping in. It takes a long time for consumers to come back and build the savings back up. I think there is a small short window here that is closing for the Health Crisis to be nipped in the bud before it gets to economic crisis. I know this is not normally what we do on fast money. But you bring up the important point from Human Element you talk about millions of people have that one week of savings in the bank account. One week and millions more, no paid leave, sick leave. You see people not going to work and not earn income that dont have to back up. That takes a long time to rebuild. Thats why i wonder if the bond market is doing what its doing and signaling a sharp recession. I dont know. No. I was saying i dont know when the bond market hasnt done that accurately. Look at japan. I think this is all about psychology all about Market Positioning as much as anything and we all know that the market needed some trigger. Its usually the trigger you are not expecting. How about before used to be bad news plus psychology meant the market higher. Market psychology was i was actually going to buy this because bad news good news but now bad news is truly bad news and bad news in the form of we are getting earnings and real bottom up dynamics for companies that are unavoidable i think thats the biggest thing going on here. I think 3380 or wherever we topped out on the s p was something was not where we should be. Just to round out on the rates issue. When you pan back i know carter covers this but when you pan back and look at the longterm chart on the 10year its done nothing but go down this is the velocity everyone is scratching their head. Because we saw rates climb getting to a floral sized state, whatever that means. And now the velocity to which its breaking down is shocking everyone but i dont think that means we are going into a falling off into the abyss of recession. If we come out of this your question if we come out in three months, earlier than six months i think things normalize again. Thats what we have to price out. We cant talk transports without oil. Oil was the big story in the mechanic because while stocks may have been come back. Oil did not closed down nearly 10 hitting fresh fouryear lows opec couldnt come to a deal they walked out russia wouldnt bless anything people could say its the end of russia plus opec High Pressure who knows. Were looking at the stock market is oil elk telling us Something Like the bond market or is oil its own thing. Oil is its own thing. This is the black swan the Health Crisis and coronvirus is a white swan quickly turning gray oil is the black swan. In what way because we have a lot of debt, as you know, in the oil patch. Thats the epicenter for this expansion of debt that we have had since the financial crisis and so oil is acting on its own. If you get oil down in the 30 a barrel level thats going to be a problem. That in and of itself is an economic hit add on top of it you have the economic shock from the virus, this is where it gets a little concerning. But there is a little help i guess in gas prices coming down. Jet fuel. If youre not driving to work who cares. Im trying to find something thats not terrible. A break here i know i wanted to make this graphic for you in mind, tim its complicated it spreads bond spreads and prices and it comes from miller taiback. And you can see i know we have it put it up, guys. Spreads are blowing out. What that means in in plain english thats Corporate Bond spreads triple b to arated. We are seeing the credit markets react here strongly, are we not . Thats the bigger risk. You have a 35 basis points owe backups widening error across the credit class. And the bigger part to be concerned about is the triple b minus, wig group of companies that in many cases have gorged themselves on debt if you look at business debt to gdp, we have never been higher and i realize rates have never been lower but it doesnt mean every Company Comes to market in the same way i think thats what ultimately you guys are talking Energy Sector thats the biggest impact of the Energy Sector its a lynch pin for high yield and distressed assets. There is a lot of weak hands in the retail space and Big Industrial companies ford motorcredit, there is dynamics that there is is the trigger. Brian. White, going gray good discussion, we could have done it for hours because a lot to get threw well do more tomorrow titan the top tonight 7 00 eastern time markets in turmoil special talk about the markets, the key im sure more on the latest on the coronvirus as well and the economy, and really what is an economic story in the meantime we are Getting Started here on fast money. Up next, more on the rate shokds yields plunging to record lows. Well talk about the impact on banks. And one key part of the market later, why defense may literally be the best offense in this market where options traders are finding a measure much safety as always, live at the nasdaq and back after this. A more secure diaper closure. There were babies involved. And they werent saying much. Thats what we do at 3m, we listen to people, even those who dont have a voice. We are people helping people. Wild thing, you make who my heart sing. Ice. You make everything. Groovy. Done yet . Yeah, yeah, sorry, sorry. 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Call, click or visit a store today. All right well back to fast money. Another record breaking day he said in the bond market. A long week. The yield on the 10year treasury hitting a record low breaking below 0. 7 . Closed at 0. 773. The historic move having a huge impact on one part of the market carter worth to chart it and its ugly. Banks have been ugly for a while and got worse. You were talking about earlier lets talk about it more but first the history of the tlt we know its been a one way trade for rates which of course is the opposite for price. What is now a record and see the tlt is the lilt literal will i to the penny at the top of the channel it lived in the entire existen. Literally touching there as we speak. Even if this goes higher, i think the path higher passes tu a lower price. In fact the nasdaq 100 got to the top of the 10year channel and backed away. My hufrmg is this is truly overdone and you can catch the downdraft in the ttlt. But importantly banks, the kbw bank index, two parts to the chart, the top the index and the bottom the relative performance of s p put in lines what we have is the following. On the top we broke we had a belldefined trend line and we have broken it soif i were to zoom in here yo can see this were now officially below the line and we have also broken below to 52week and 10year lows on on the relative lets move forward im showing you the alldata chart that goes back to the 2007 peak this is the real tragedy its the problem with dilution lets put in lines the bkx index never got back above the 2007 peak. Individual banks have. Jp morgan fantastic. But as a theme as investment, alpha proposition, cant make a high in 10, 20 years and its relative performance is below the 09 low. While there are ones better than others, the notion that somehow this has been or ever was a good area, never was true certainly not good right now all right, carter were seeing you coming up in options action as well. B. K. , the banks . You know, its not a great environment for the bank unfortunately. There is going to be some that do jp morgan probably will weather the storm there is a time to buy the u. S. Banks i dont think they are going out of business. Last night all the fire trucks are parked outside the banks, the hoses ready. Chances of being a huge problem with the u. S. Banks are slim i think. That doesnt mean they are great investments in the environment i think if you look at the banks, the more im concerned about is the European Banks. You look at the European Bank index, down 25 from the february highs thats where the epicenter will be if there is problems with the banks. I think if you think about the Money Center Banks you had a dynamic where people really focused valuations around whats been going on with the yield curve. We nope in case you havent done the math after today its now the 10year yield dropped 79 since the peak of november of 2018 there is some dynamic here i think banks profitableability is more defendable than that the biggest issue, the would be the credit issues that people are doing the balance. Its not their credit. To be clear. Sorry. Right its the stuff they hold. Right. By the way, i think all of us here wish jamie dimon a speedy recovery. I love jamie dimon. We know didnt want to but sounds like he is Getting Better and thats good. All of us here wishing jamie speedy recovery. Coming up, we put the tech in protection how you can seek safety in one of the hardest hit sectors of the sell i dont have. As reminder, check out the app youre with us live. Back after this. Calfshredding shoes with special rubber platforms designed to increase vertical jump sure, they look ridiculous but nothing looks more ridiculous than going up for a dunk and coming up two inches short. Invest in Innovative Companies with invesco qqq all right. Reminder, coverage continues of the wild week on wall street the markets, your money, again do not miss the special report, which is markets in turmoil, 7 00 p. M. Eastern time here on c nb its time now for the final trades how are we setting up for monday, tim seymour. Well, whether Campbell Soup orp things defensive here because people are stocking up the netflix being defenses because people stay inside and rent movies is crazy but its a stock i didnt like the cash burn going into this. This is a stock actually i shorted today. Its a stock i think will go lower. Short netflix, b. K. For me its still about the precious metals. You think about whats going on we have the deflationary shock to the economy you cut rates, the next step is devalue currency gold, bitcoin and silver. Karen. Obviously crazy week, what im looking to do is yesterday sold some puts when the vix was going berserk scary and hard to do could have sold better today but what do you do i want to buy quality companies. Alphabet with the biggest cash horde on the planet i think they survive well clearly if the economy sh shrink buyer of google. Steve. Frpway the s p cash level at 285 a imperative that holds or else lower from there. By microsoft is the final trade. Money will come back into tech watch microsoft for a bounce. All right, guys thank you very much. Crazy week great job to everybody. Options action will be up right after the shoert break stick around announcer options action. Strategies from the streets top traders. New opportunities to profitable from the markets hottest trends all right. Hello and welcome everybody to a special edition of options action. Tonight it is a fullhouse. Im Brian Sullivan joined by carter worth mike khouw out west. Appear bonwin and tony zhang we are seeing things unfathomable a couple days ago what could could be next. Tonight we follow an old adage to know where youre going look where youve been to quote the great kenny rogers know when to hold and know when to fold them consider the t