The best week since 2006 is apple now the king of the market brian kelly, youre worried today about opening at the highs. Here we have great price action. What do you say . Yeah. So last night and then even this morning i was very concerned that we had these blockbuster earnings from big tech and the market not responding. The standout was apple all day long and so that gave me a little bit of confidence and then you saw just continue to be strong the whole time so lets look at apple. What happened . They had tremendous earnings they have multiple cat lisalystd the services of a bigger part of the earnings is starting to take hold and argue and of course you can argue that it would deserve a higher pe ratios i find thats absurd and here we are what did you make of the action . Listen. Bk or beakers knocked it out of the park just like apple did macs are up in terms of sales and wearables. The Service Business although i think that was up about 15 . 258 per share. Theres not much not to like i think the story leading up to it is whether or not the Big Tech Companies to justify the value cases or whether or not they were just a safe haven and we have seen and they have shown this is a twopronged attack they have fortress Balance Sheets a growth story you continue to ride the tornado higher. With the 10. 5 move in a single day, steve grasso, what can get us to the next level for pe with a company not providing guidance not many are for the remainder of the year but with apple do you need that . I dont know if you need it but i think what you need you have you have the split you have the four for one. Retail is going to be chasing that, the split. Retail is chasing a dividend they have them all but if you look at hardware, 215 billion in hardware, 46 and change in services bono said its a growth story. Market didnt believe it was a growth story now it starts to see it is a growth story im wearing the wearables right here thats a bigger story than ever. I was tempted to get back in today. I told you last night. On this move . I cant i cant get back in on this move but sometimes you have to hold your nose and not let your own thoughts sort of talk you out of a trade. I do believe it goes higher into that split date in late august i could miss another 5 to 10 in this stock move because im too proud. For one, will there be an into the stock before the split . Have we seen that in i mean, this is the fifth split for apple or sixth have we seen this before and what does the chart is this a breakout today . Sure. Its a gap up. Heavy volume new high, alltime high. One thing that comes to mind is maybe a week ago and we were on together and which is the first one to get to 2 trillion. Yes. I picked amazon bono and you picked amazon i think someone else might have but here we are and it obviously looks like apple at this pace is the one thats going to get there at 1. 8 plus. So the thing is. Theres always another way to interpret it the price action today it didnt fade as some would have thought. I thought that was going to happen and heres the thing that seems curious. Despite all of this, it was one heck of a day, the qqq still didnt make a new high it was the day, the 13th, mid month of july, netflix flubbed the Earnings Report and thats still the high with apple doing this and amazon doing this, and facebook we couldnt make a new high were still below where we were on the netflix slip . That seems curious i think its something that needs to be sort of taken note of. So when you say its curious, are you saying basically that there could be some weakness in tech overall that apple the strength in apple is now masking . No. It is not so much that its that if theres such a thing of latent potential, potential before earnings and exploitation of earnings lets say you beat as apple and facebook did and now what . Are you going getting immediate follow through on monday or tuesday . Do you get the qs new high . We have expended a lot of energy and still we set our high for the nasdaq at the 13th of july and now august 1th it seems curious. Bk, one thing we didnt touch on is the impact to have on the dow versus s p 500 you split apple and price weighted index like the dow taking a quarter of the gains that would be a positive for the dow and the s p 500 so that divergence we could see that grow as time goes on because of the split. Yeah. I think thats interesting this split is going to be very important and i loved how carter described it as latent potential. Theres been times im described as i hope i have latent potential, too i hope its still in there. Exactly exactly. But i do think as crazy as it is, it shocks me every time, but when a stock splits people seem to like it it goes up theres nothing different about the company, nothing changed whatsoever except the price of the stock is lower and human beings like to buy a full share, 100 shares, own one apple. It is a crazy thing but given the fact that this market has a propensity to be retail driven i think going into the end of the month thats going to be a catalyst for this stock. But as you say, youre talking about four or five companies that are i think they could be masking some weakness, makes me a bit concerned and saw the bond market this morning was yields a little bit higher that would not be good for this trade so theres things on the horizon im cautious about and with euphoria like this i get extra cautious but in terms of apple i think going into that split its you will have retail traders pile into it. Hold on when you say bond yields or higher i mean, by how much . I think i must have missed that. You must have missed it but also heres whats curious about it when the stock markets falling this morning you saw yields tick higher a bit so if we talk about negative real rates and i dont want to be too wonky but thats the drumbeat and then big tech is a problem. Bono, you are not worried you say stick with the tech trade. Absolutely. Ive been bullish quite sometime and listen there were some headwinds there. We have the whole political risk, facebook has their own issues, antitrust and things of that nature but i think a lot of the issue was leading up to see whether or not earnings justified the moves. Now we have clarity. For me it is on to the next thing. And yes. We have seen a bit of decoupling from these particular names and thats healthy you want to see stock picking. When it is a high tide raising the boats indiscriminately that gives me pause but the risks are still there. I still think theres a lot of uncertainty in terms of the Overall Economic picture but what we do now have is very succinct and clear data around the market leaders and i think that bodes well for us going forward. We mentioned retail traders in apple apple was the number one stock in terms of top increases in number of Users Holding a stock today on the robin hood app and did see that chase into apple today. We are following a developing story on tiktok. Microsoft is in talks to buy it. Lets get to Julia Boorstin with the details. Julia . Thats right. Microsoft is in talks to acquire tiktok from the Parent Company chinese bike dance this comes after President Trump said earlier today that hes considering banning tiktok or considering taking other options around tiktok which coulden collude forcing bike dance to sell that company. Tiktok valued at 50 billion, about half of bite dances valuation has raised concerns with u. S. Authorities of user privacy. Tiktok telling us its confident in the longterm success of the platform saying while we do not comment on rumors or speculation we are confident in the longterm success of tiktok. And that theyre motivated by the passion of the hundreds of millions of users and committed to protecting the safety theres note of strategic sense to resolve the Security Issues and also give microsoft a crown jewel in the Consumer Social Media front at a time that facebook and google under massive regulatory scrutiny and for microsoft it would be a meaningful move away from its focus on the enterprise space. We did get a no comment from microsoft. Back over to you. It is notable you know this. That tiktok ceo is a u. S. Ceo. Formerly from disney why is it not raised as a possibility that this division of this company could be spun out into a separate Company Given that the appetite these days for social Media Companies . Look. Thats definitely one of the options here it is notable the hiring of kevin mayer, very senior at disney, ran the streaming service in international division, responsible really for the launch of disney plus and his hiring i think really a statement that tiktoks u. S. Operations are a u. S. Company really intending to stake a claim there that theyre willing to do whatever it takes to keep it operating here in the u. S. And also speaks to the huge growing popularity of the app. Remarkable how fast its grown. Yep thank you. Steve grasso, if microsoft said tomorrow that theyre buying tiktok, would you like microsoft more or less i would like microsoft more but what was interesting was if facebook is under the scrutiny of d. C. Then wouldnt microsoft start getting under the scrutiny of d. C. If they did this deal, as well . Thats the first question i ask. So im not sure you want to be in that camp but i think this is a perfect deal because everything that microsoft has or the majority of what they have is business facing this is a totally different angle. Who do i should be a buyer of this Google Google should be in the running. Google has no social platform and failed at it multiple times. This would be a great gift to apple. This would be a huge gift for google. It is not a matter of cash. We know they have cash it is a matter of a fact days ago they were in congress saying theyre going to tell the truth. Every Single Company had a ceo there except for microsoft and maybe for that reason they could do the deal but strategically to me, carter, i dont know makes no sense for a company so focused on enterprise to then all of a sudden go into consumer when its just surface tablets and an xbox not to downplay the xxox. Doesnt move the needle at the end of the day. Microsoft more so than any of these companies is a utility if you will it is the Johnson Johnson of 1985 okay so they do the tiktok move im not sure it really is all that relevant unless as implied they build out a huge new arm, a new division i just dont think thats what theyre up to. Carter has some real gems microsoft is the Johnson Johnson of 1985. That is going to live in history as one of the greatest lines spoken on fast money. Kansas city southern, takeover talk. Lets get to leslie picker with the news. I want to urge investors to temper expectations on this one. A source tells me it is true that they are preparing a bid for Kansas City Southern and that they have approached at least one bank to arrange financing but very early days. Im told no talks have begun between the consortium and ksu management or that a formal offer will be presented. A buyout of ksu requires a hefty check, 21 billionen colluding debt, melissa. Leslie, thank you the quarter they just reported was okay given the economic circumstances there are some concerns of whether if the economy remains in a downturn how to weather that with the volumes and go that extra special layer of exposure to mexico and may also be tricky. Right, yeah this is the nafta trade war trade. Right . Kansas city southern, the big part of what they do is transporting cars and other goods from mexico back into the u. S. So theres always kind of a geopolitical risk there. In terms of this deal it certainly makes sense at this point in time that private equity swimming in cash looking for big deals like this to do and its a classic private equity cool. Model cash flows but as a trader, you know, i would be a bit cautious. They have had a pretty big run here today sounds luke its really early stages but it doesnt mean that its done at the prices we are at today think it got a little ahead of itself. You also want to think do you want to be does one want to be in the trade so leveraged to a recovery and the economy, bono you are leaning towards tech tell me that youre probably not in this camp to buy Kansas City Southern or a railroad for that matter. Youre extremely perspective. Maybe i just am not very good at playing my cards close to vest probably a mixture of both but listen i think theres much better ways to play the recovery story i can understand it. I would think, i take a gander, that the logic is that you have the economy in a suppressed situation and might make for some what of a discount but at 21 billion, i believe theyre 15 and 20 billion respectively, i dont see the value thats unlocked at point of transaction which is really what you should be looking at for this point of time. Going for gold the historic run is there any shine left in the rally . Plus, disney earnings on deck, is the stock losing the magic here well bring you that trade welcome back to fast money. News crossing on the u. S. s credit rating. Fitch downgrading the outlook to negative from stable saying the downgrade reflects the ongoing det deter ration in the u. S. Public finances and this comes as the u. S. Treasury yields hit record lows the dollar continues to weaken and seeing the biggest monthly drop in nearly a decade and gold had the best month since february of 2016 hitting a fresh alltime high today for the first time ever. So will gold continue to rally carter, what are you looking at . Sure. It is all about tactical versus structural this is over Currency Debasement this is not near the alltime high adjusted for inflation. We are only at 2,000. But tactically, its getting a bit crowded. People who hated it love it and thats a time to do hedging. So the first you have here is just the circumstance where gold is up eight weeks in a row in the history of the data thats happened four other times. There are 2,372 rolling 8week periods so thats an incident rate of 0. 14 . Take a look at the next table. What has happened those four other times . Looking out one month, three months, six months, the odds of gold being up are fairly low and in fact gold if you look at the sort of median return is actually negative on a 1, 3 and 6month basis and then the chart of gold. It is a bit steep, it is a bit crowded. Its got a lot of people who now like it. And so, often thats time to hedge, take some measures. Talk about silver. Its a similar circumstance. Take a look at this slide. Silver is also up eight weeks in a row, only happened six times going back to the 70s you are talking about six out of again 2,372 rolling 8week periods. What is the possibility of that occurring . You can see it there, it is 0. 25 . These are exceedingly rare moments. What happened thereafter same setup. Take a look at the next table. Silver on a 1, 3, 6month basis, the odds of being up are low and you get a giveback, a draw down. Does it have to do that . Of course not. It is tactical versus structural but tactically it is getting a little hot a chart of silver. Final chart here and what do we know its a textbook breakout at the 20 level so its really about balancing the longer term view versus how win might hedge or take measures. Heres a data point thats very telling. In 3 out of the past 7 sessions, over 1 million contracts have traded in slv. In the entire of the etf never on any given day traded a billion contracts. 3 of the past 7 over a million and typically theres a panic. Do some hedging. So taking a look at the historical performance, six months out it does seem clear that silver is more dangerous trade given the mean decline in silver after those runs. It could be but the only thing i will say is that carter does excellent work but past performance in this event and in this market we have all seen sort of means nothing. I think you can see a day where gold is going to be trading at 3,000 an ounce so i think that is what were focused on silver you might have a little more of the trader, the robin hood in it but i think gold is going much higher from here. Its different this time around, bk go ahead, carter last word. So steve is actually making the point. It is structural versus tactical rates to zero. Gold to infinity silver went to 50. These are data tables that account for periods where its more extreme were nowhere near that and still its hot daytoday. Longer term is the same the trend is the same. But be careful, right, carter . Indeed. Next, we have your final trades time for the final trade bono im going to come up with a constructive way to play the reopening with caterpillar best roe in class. Carter . Precious metals is great but this is a time to add some bitcoin. Am i talking to bk . Steve . Wow tsc still undervalued bk . You know what buy apple. Latent potential i love carters bitcoin. Options action is up next [ thunder rumbles ] [ engine rumbling ] [ beeping ] [ engine revs ] uh, you know theres a 30minute limit, right . Tell that to the rain. [ beeping ] for those who were born to ride, theres progressive. It is the last friday in july already so you know what that means time for options action. Heres whats ahead. What Global Recovery . Here we are. Carter worth explains how the land of the rising sun could signal the sun is actually setting on any real bright spots. Then as the song goes, its a small world after all. Things do not bode well. Tony demonstrates how it could get smaller for disney plus even if the worl
vimarsana.com © 2020. All Rights Reserved.