Seema mody is here with those numbers. The month of october, but off the highs. Were currently up, the nasdaq, though, leading again up around 1 for a second weekly game over the last couple days, continuing to fuel the that tracks them actually notching a fresh alltime high today. But rebounding much here it is again, a nice gap between the housing sector and the s p 500 pinterest up another alltime high etsy just 7 from its record high palantir just flagged below that 10 opening bryce. Kelly, back to you. Nancy pelosi appeared the treasury secretary are meeting right now. The white house has said pelosi is not interested, the white house but thor pelosi made it clear she doesnt want to do piecemeal legislation. It condition as tune cost because theyre wealthy, theyre successful, at the expense of the poor were not going to exploit the needs that people have to help the high end other areas of disagree, state and local aid, kelly, mnuchin had said whether or not and what i find out, back over to you we appreciate it, ylan mui the dow already have its gains were up after an upanddown week what will break the tie . For more, lets bring in alan boomer and Craig Calahan of Icon Advisers gentlemen, welcome to you both alan, let me start with you, is this a market waiting for a clear outcome, or are there other forces at play here . Hi, kelly great questions. Three things i think are driving the market the fiscal stimulus bill before the house being negotiated with the senate, thats a big one i think theres a high likelihood this bill does not get passed before the election i think well know today if they decide to vote, i think theres a high chance its a no. If they decide to keep talking, then thats a good sign. The stimulus bill is one aspect. I think the election is clearly a big one. Finally the wreaks vaccine is ar big one. Theres high hopes for a vaccine to be distributed this year. As this gets pushed into 2021, thats another issue hanging over the market. Sure. Craig, what do you think happens if theres no covid bill were bullish we find the market to be about 30 below our fair valuable. We dont really need the stimulus bill to be passed to be bullish. Were bullish anyway. We talk about fair value. For most of the time weve talked, when is the last time we were at or above that level, and in the meantime we might be 10 or 15 below, but now we just dropped, so what makes you confident were going to close that gap this. Even during the great 11year bull market that ended in february, we never saw the overpricing typical of peaks in this low Interest Rate environment, when you project earns out into the future, then discount them back to the brent value, you get high levels of valuation in this setting with low Interest Rates so we still see bargains out there. One more question, craig, on valuation. For the people who say, look at the pricetoearnings multiple of the market or some of these names were expensive by historical standards why do you look at it differently . Theres a big segment of the market where their earnings go the hit this year, but theyre projected to be back above last years next year, and then growing healthy from there im note buying todays earnings im buying future earnings those are projected to get right back on a growth path starting next year. All right. I know tech remains one of your favorite sectors, but also the industrials in consumer discretion, certainly less than a market favorite these days alan, i want your picks as well. Where would you recommend investors be positioned right now . Does it depend on the three factors you mentioned earlier . Yeah, i agree that i think the market can do okay without all three of those things going perfectly, but i think today is a crazy environment, in the sense that youve got five stocks that really dominate the indices, and theres a ive never seen a bigger amount of variation between the high p. E. Stocks and low p. E. Stocks stocks i like now are companies with good dividend yields, on the lower p. E. Side. A name i rally like today is verizon. Verizon trades at a p. E. Of next years earnings of about 12 times. It has a dividend yield over 4 . To craigs points, Interest Rates are low. That makes valuations different to analyze, but when you look at how low the yield is, a 4 dividend looks good here 2 looks good, anything these days seems to offer a little more value than the bond market. Thank you both, we appreciate it today on these markets. Lets hone in more on the jobs picture which remains mixed. We had initial jobless claims aiming lower, its a continued, but very slow improvement. The airline furloughs that could start today, if you include those, companies have collectively announced 72,000 job cuts just this week. At the same time recruiter. Coms september report says recruiters this past mob have never been more bullish with me is evan seohn, great to have you back. Do you mean theyve never been more bullish on this recovery or never been more bullish, period . We were talking about this this morning its inched up to 3. 3. This is still out of a 3. 5 sentiment number, so were still low, but certainly see an up tick workloads have never been higher more importantly when we look at the time impact of covid on their activities, thats also down down now to about 24. 5 that covid is having a direct impact on their activities. Thats down about seven points from where we were last month at about 32 . Evan, how can it be at a time when were getting more bankruptcy filings, more notification of permanent layoffs, the pandemic feels to me like its shifting from one thats largely temporary, to unfortunately gere clarity on things that may by more permane permanent. What explains that disconnect . Theres sentiment on work4r0d, theyre still about 30 down they still feel despite the fact that work loads are up, thats pretty significant i think youre seeing an uptick in industries, maybe the i. T. Industry and Computer Software industry have taken a slight up tick,. Were going to star tracking 9 roles that are in person, online and hybrid so maybe last month we saw an uptick in the manufacturing sector, but our hearts go out to everyone losing a job. Keep in mind the area that are some of more of those highpaying jobs certainly weve seen a big impact on the mortgage space, for instance. Lets talk about manufacturing. We have the isn report this morning that was relatively strong, but a pullback from the strength we saw last month, some of the forwardlooking parts of it dropped a bit more precipitously. So you guys are actually picking up on some bullish signs in manufacturing. I wonder if you could talk about that and if you think its sustainable. Well, you know, the answer is we are seeing this impact. Again, you look at where we are, last september we added 139,000 jobs last september, so september 2019, so even the most pessimistic reports have us adding five times that in numbers. Theres still a very long way to go, but were still going to be sectors hit harder than others do you think, evan im asking you to really speculate here, but since you have your ear so close to the ground, i do wonder, a lot of the manufacturing demand we have seen is being chalk up to restocking, basically theres been a big shortage of goods to the economy owing to the different nature of demand this year do you think the manufacturing employers you talked to are looking to help people with the restocking and thats it, or building out a workforce for a sustainable recovery you know, i think i started looking at some of the online job boards, and i was pretty surprised to see how many open positions there are that are fulltime positions. One online job site had 7 million open jobs, the bulk of which were actually fulltime jobs, so i think that helpout role is the gig economy rather than the more permanent positions. Theres certainly a shift were seeing from the blue Collar Worker again, and our heart goes out to everyone who has lost their job, but we have not yet seen an industry that said, gee, we came back, rehired people, and were laying them off again. We havent seen a lot of that yet. Theres a lot of talk about the second wave. Again, what we really measure is the recruiter sentiment. I hope youre right, once you bring people back, you keep them and it wasnt a false dawn, so to speak i love the granularity, thank you. Good to see you coming up we speak with representative tom reed. Plus the retailer that just reported yearoveryear sales growth for the first time in four years and the tech craze, valuations on the rise and a flood of new ipos. Should investors worry were headed for another bubble . We have answers, coming up as business moves forward, were all changing the way things get done. Like how we redefine collaboration. How we come up with new ways to serve our customers. And deliver our products. But no matter how things change, one thing never will. You can rely on the people and the network of at t. To help keep your business connected. Welcome back to the exchange. Tech looking to regain its footing. But its still up 28 to day and investors are still bullish. The Fourth Quarter stock survey shows 64 of investors believe that tech will lead the market next year, outpacing others. Between that and the flood of the ipos lately, are we in an environment similarly precarious to 1999 . We have the Portfolio Manager of the Opportunities Fund at goldman. Brook, good to have you back do you see parallels here or not . Hi, kelly thanks for having me back on so, you know, we do think were in a very different environment than in 1999, and, you know, a lot of that is driven by both the fundamentals of the companies. While its been a great time to be invested in tech, we remain bullish about the outlook across the intermediate temple. Listen, i know were know where near the crazy this company was. In two weeks and its going public and has no real Business Plan and the stock is up 1,000 , but there are some areas where we say theres electric vehicle spacs, all these new types of ipos, and the performance has been really solid. The tech sector itself as some companiesapple, most notably the p. E. Is basically the highest we have ever seen how would you explain all of that sure. When we look at the market, first we would say theres real lessons to be learned how we came off the last double, how stocks reacted and how stocks should be positioned clearly there are pockets in the market where the valuations are concerns aconcerning however, we are finding great opportunities to put capital to Work Companies that we think inch we they theres tremendous opportunities. Clients that are unique and the opportunities when you get to discuss what tier doing, they trust us with their assets, and we take that seriousry you know, i think our process is driven by that tell me about splunk and palo alto both of those companies have controversy happening right now thats creating an opportunity for investors to take advantage of what should be, you know, very solid fundamentals going into the next year at valuations that are very attractive starting first request splunk, theres a Company Going through effectively two different Business Model transitions today. From the Business Model into more of a subscription model at the same time theyre moving to Cloudbased Software as well. Both of those things are depressing nearterm revenues, building up real value, and leading to a much more predictable Sustainable Business similarly with palo alto, security is going through a transition where theres a new generation of Security Technologies out there called zero trust effectively the in the old world are fundamentally changing palo alto has some great assets their addressing this zerotrust market, but at the same time the core firewall is shifting from more of a hardware model to a Software Model its a great explainer of how you can still find value in a market i think its interesting we have to go, but you say another difference with the market is if you took tech out of the picture in 99, the fundamentals looked out, and i know youre mohr skeptical. Thank you for your time, sir we look forward to chatting again. Still ahead, were not playing around playboy is filing for an ipo we told you it was an ipo mania. Of course its via a spac. And well tell you how las vegas is bedding on a postcovid comeback. And stimulus talks are being held as i speak. Were bringing you the developing headlines, coming up here on the exchange. Stay with us so youre a Small Business, or a big one. You were thriving, but then. Oh. Ah. Okay. Plan, pivot. How do you bounce back . You dont, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. Powered by the largest gig Speed Network in america. But is it secure . Sure its secure. And even if the power goes down, your connection doesnt. So how do i do this . You dont do this. We do this, together. Bounce forward, with comcast business. Welcome back dow is up 259 at the highs, down 22 at the lows were up 86 now. Dow is the underperformer today. Nasdaq is leading the way once again, up 1. 2 its all consumer, consumer discretionaries, energy is the big laggard. Oil is back below 40 a barrel and a rise in opecs output is also a 4 dive. Meanwhile, overstock is rising the stock is up 14 . Finally draftkings is higher with needham initiating a buy. Its over 62 a share. Sue herera now has our cnbc news update heres whats happening this hour a Sunrise Remembrance ceremony in las vegas on the third anniversary of the deadliest mass shooting in modern u. S. History. A gunman opened fire on a Music Festival crowd yesterday a judge approval a 800 million pay out from mgn resort and its insurers. Frances Health Minister is warning residence that paris is on the brink of a lockdown as soon as monday that reejten may be forced to close bars and other social interactions. Visitors will be able to go inside the Washington Monument today for the first time in six months guests will be required to wear masks and purchase tickets online for specific time slots. Jimmy carter is celebrating his 96th birthday. We hope he has a very happy birthday you are up to date thats the news update this hour kelly, back to you. Thank you very much, sue still ahead, bed and bathroom supplies, restaurants limping along to recovery, and a less commercial christmas maybe its all ahead on the exchan exchange. Taking california for a ride. Companies like uber, lyft, doordash. Breaking state employment laws for years. Now these multibilliondollar companies wrote deceptive prop 22 to buy themselves a new law. To deny drivers the rights they deserve. No sick leave. No workers comp. No unemployment benefits. Vote no on the deceptive uber, lyft, doordash prop 22. One ride california doesnt want to take. Welcome back lets catch you up on a few stories. It is time for rapid fire. Welcome, everybody first up, shares of Bed Bath Beyond are soars. Its Online Business surged more than 80 versus last year. The instore sales still fell by 12 . The shares today are up more than 30 , the biggest oneday gain ever. Its quadrupled since april. Brian . Well heavily shorted stock, by the way remember that seinfeld where he makes a care can they keep them thats the question. They have more than 2 million customers in the period. A lot were younger people buying things for their home. Were all at home right now. To his point, i agree, they need to hold on to them but everyone is working doing school from home you need things for the house, they have hand sanitizer, masks, things well need. I needed to buy a folding table recently i couldnt find one anywhere so i think the more people need to buy things for the home, theyre going to be turning to different retailers. So many are selling out of things, because people are buying more these days. Do we have a National Shortage of folding tables i have an extra folding table. I will send it to you. My desk is backa backordered. Thanks, brian. Playboy is merging with a spac this values playboy at about 415 million, existing owners will retain two thirds of control of the company, and after merging with this spac, it would be known under plby. What do we know about this deal . It got a slightly positive reaction from investors. Of course when they deals gets announced, its important to Pay Attention to the price because its up to the investors to approve or disapprove of the deal they are signing. So Mountain Crest acquisition corp, its also important to see who the sponsors are this one is managed by hudson capital. Fun fact, too, the entire board is men so i guess its not too surprising, but just kind of a i mean, come on its a data point. Brian, would you invest do you think this is a Good Business i mean, i have no idea what their business s i guess theyre trying to get into lingerie and compete with victorias business the magazine has gone away, but to leslies point, its amazing, you can put in very little of your own money, leverage it up with other peoples money, go public, releverage it again im not saying thats what happened here, but weve seen that in spacs in the point at some point you will be the last spac standing at some point the music will come to an end, of that i am sure. Theres a reason why youre seeing so many its free money, basically easy way to get rich lets talk about a topic near and dear to kate rogers. Sales trends are on the road, but still down from prepandemic levels a new report by the new york state comptroller says nearly half could close permanently within the next six months earlier today Speaker Pelosi said she and secretary mnuchin are not in agreement, and she specifically called out restaurants. The restaurants industry at large has been pushing for a 120 billion Restaurant Recovery Fund theyre say they need this when you look at the traffic and sales numbers, obviously theyre starting to move in the right direction, but we still have a long way to go it also says 165 billion lost in sales through july, 100,000 locations are closed we dont know how many will be permanent, but we got the devastating report out of new york today, and i think well see more i think democrats are looking at more targeted aid for particular industries, including the Restaurant Industry, which badly needs it Small Businesses are so important, and we want there to be a main street when its all said and done. It adds to the charge of so many places its a huge, huge loss, and something needs to be done quickly. The longer we wait, more and more will continue to close. How many people in positions of power have ever owned oar run a restaurant thats the question. 65 of your costs are fixed, called the prime costs of a restaurant rent, insurance, utilities, basic labor you need. You can cut labor a bit, but if you have 30 capacity and 65 of your costs are fixed, you cant do it. Heres the things im going to Say Something controversial i know if youre old or vulnerable stay home, take care of yourself. Were all staying home and wearing masks, if youre open 25 , why be open at all . Ive got no fear of going to a restaurant if youre vulnerable go home, we have learned a lot about this disease. Well have 30 Million People unemployed with a hospitality depression as well we dont talk about the Mental Health issues, alcoholism is up. Weve got to have hard adult conversations very soon. Its an interesting point, leslie, as well, were heading into a tougher season. Over the spring, summer and fall, youve been out almost weekly sitting outside at restaurants in this area its so nice to get out of the house and, you know, you talk to them, how is it going . They dont have the political clout to say, you know, an area dominated by big companies, like the airlines or Something Else does, they wee lied on the ppp loans, but kate mentioned those number its scary stuff for new york city, but they have amongst the most stringent rules in the country. You would hope that we hope half of the restaurants arent going out of business, but certainly in other areas, it seems like theyll need more help. Ive been in the city throughout the entire crisis it was eerie back in march and april, even starbucks wasnt open you barely saw people on the stre street these days its the complete opposite the city has kind of come back alive through the restaurant scene. Now here we are, october 1st, you wake up this morning and kind of have this reckoning, okay, its actually fall, the potential for a second wave could be around the corner, covid he colliding with the flu season it seems to be closer upon us, and here we are, we dont have any answers. But were so much smarter than we were in march, okay . Were masked, were socially distanced, responsible people are hopefully acting responsible, College Students aside. Every College Student has no fear i talked to a College Student, i know people, thats what theyll tell you in private moments. Having people act responsibly, wear a mask. If youre vulnerable dont go out, wash your hands if you dont to a restaurant, dont go to another crowd. Just like sweden im not saying theyre the perfect case, baas its politicalically controversy yale, because they had a lot of nursing home fatalities at the beginning. We didnt have much of a flu season three of the last four years. Im not so sure well have a im going to move on theyre telling me dont play doctor im researching a book, so i have a lot of data in my head. Back to you. Lets go from restaurants to movies its kind of in the same vein. More that are 70 directors and producers to ask congress for financial help it includes james cameron, clint eastwood, martin core says scor. You knee, theyre trying to ban together to get more political clout. Will it work theres a push to help these smaller companies, in particular the money is there, not all of it got used during the last round. They say we need help. Youre going to see it across industries its really a reckoning and its only going to get worse until something is done. And we await news to see if the talks between pelosi and mnuchin reveal anything. Before we go, guys, were only 85 days away from christmas. A new survey of 1500 consumers sauce shoppers are approaching this Holiday Season differently. Many want retailers to close on thanksgiving day and to reduce risks to essential workers. Leslie, its interesting the message here is that its going to be a less commercial Holiday Season, but at the same time, were all so desperate to get out. All of our families, were all spending time with them. Well see just what people come up with in terms of how to celebrate this year. You know, its tough. Its hard to make plans for anything quite frankly, especially the holidays, especially if you have relatives who dont live in the same city or state so i do wonder if consumers will try to replace some of the holidays traditions by spending money elsewhere, kind of like what we saw with the home renovation people werent spending as much money on, say, apparel or nice shoes to wear to work. They were using that income to fix their homes. Do people, you know, spend money that they otherwise would have spent on Airline Tickets to go home are they spending that in other ways to try to find a different way to make it special for everything. Brian back to what you were saying a moment ago, its sad to contemplate, when you cant get extended family together, and you have people spending time by themselves, maybe theyre already living alone, they just cant make the flight, whatever it is, its sad. I really you want and need people to come together for these big moments. All im trying to say and im sorry i got worked up. All im trying to say, guys, is this theres another side to this story Mental Health issues, drug addictions, families, bankruptcies its not a zerosum game we have to protection the vulnerable population, and holidays are always a different time for people struggling we need to figure out a way to keep those people taken care of. You can go to retailers, but not schools. You cant go to restaurants, but you with go to walmart its like were picking and choosing im just simply saying its not just a onesided story i know i have probably lost my mind, but whatever, weve all been cooped up too long. Fair enough thank you all in this edition of rapid fire. Coming up talks are still going on, but well speak with congressman tom reed about the future of their proposed stimulus bill. Thats next. You can always lisn teto us live or on the go with the cnbc app. Were back in a couple plans available to anyone with medicare. Many plans provide broad coverage and still may save you money on monthly premiums and Prescription Drugs. With original medicare youre covered for hospital stays and Doctor Office visits, but you have to meet a deductible for each and then, youre still responsible for 20 percent of the cost. Next, lets look at a Medicare Supplement plan. 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The American People still need it and the good news is what we are trying to do in the Problem Solvers Caucus is show you could have a bipartisan deal and more importantly, to get the stakeholders back in the room. Theyre having goodfaith conversations and were continuing to work with the white house. So theres still good signs theres a compromise yet to be had. We were just having this discussion what do you think the odds are of aid for the Restaurant Industry in particular, and the movie industry as well you know, i think theres need across all spectrums. What have you, airlines and others, but you also look at Small Businesses, you look at individuals that have lost their jobs so thats why this need is significant. The Paycheck Protection Program has shown success, so we wont get a deal on december 11th, because the chaos after the election will still be there and the animosity will be greater then than now. Now is the time to do the deal we encourage the leadership as well as folks in the senate to get this done. Dont bank on the fact after the election youll give relief to the American People. Now is the time to get it done. One of the biggest sticking points, the areas of aid where its only one party or the other who pretty much wants to move forward . Well, i dont think thats necessarily one or the other, but theres been contention about unemployment insurance, you know, people getting more money off of work, and also but what we did in the Problem Solvers Caucus is you can work that out if you actually listen to each other and come to a reasonable conclusion. I cochaired on the republican side, you can do it, because weve got well over 75 consensus to issue that Problem Solver caucus, and i will tell you, you can work through this if you put the American Peoples interests first. Thats what its all about how do you come down on the cost of this bill . I think even yours is a trillion and a half what would you tell those who say can we afford it on the deficit front . What is it doing to the National Debt how do you offset that bill against the very great need right now . Yeah, i look at the longterm picture. Obviously im very concerned about the National Debt crisis i am very concerned about where we have positioned ourselves in regards to 26 trillion in National Debt, but doing nothing has dramatic consequences in regards to what its going to do for longterm damage to the economy, with industries collapse been, with people going without, so this invest i see as a necessary investment short term, and then we look at what we did to rebuild the economy prior to covid19. What President Trump did in regard to the growth we saw, w have the capacity and the product tiivity in the American Economy to grow. We have to get through this crisis and come out on the other side stronger and well take care of this deficit and the debt that has to be addressed. That raises the question about who would be spearheading the economy for the next four years. As you mentioned, nasdaq is in influx so is the fate of this bill. Well see if we get anything on it today congressman tom reed, thank you for your time. We appreciate it good to be with you representing great state of new york casinos in las vegas were shut down for ten weeks but sin city is still betting on a recovery jane wells is there for us today. She talked to elvis about it today. Jane. Reporter i did hes lonesome, kelly i got a room last night for 65 bucks. It was nice room thats because its mid week zero conventions weekend rates are coming up. A good sign. Next up we talk with mgm resorts casino and tell you what to expect when the exchange comes back mware helps you redefine whats possible. Now. 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Welcome back despite no shows, no conventions and casinos being only partially reopened, las vegas is betting on a come back jane is out there with the story for us today reporter i want sthto show what it looks like out here. Midweek visitation is down by more than twothirds mostly because there are no c conventio conventions. Zero i think from a meeting and convention stand point we think thats about 8. 5 billion so far. Ofly, thats going to double by the time we get back fully opened. Reporter the Convention Center is continuing its billion dollar expansion thats one big difference between now and the great recession, big projects are not being abandoned. They have capital. Mgms bill hornbuckle expect the recovery to be much more gradual than what he expects i think 21 will be a year of recovery hopefully theres a cure in our near future. It wont be mandatory. I think by end of 21, as we look into 22, this time next year, i think well be hosting shows at t mobile. I think well be back to normal. Reporter here is some video i took on plane coming in. Youll have to wear a mask inside casinos get a Temperature Check you see plexiglass between seats. Consignificant cleaning of slot machine services, youll see all that sort of thing when you come here during the week, you wont have a lot of company you talked with elvis what was that about . Reporter the Viva Las Vegas wedding chapel here, i went over there. Hes owned it for 27 years tlp was o there was one wedding. A darth vader wedding. His one Small Business has lost 1. 2 million in wedding cancellations. Mgm resorts will be fine they can sustain this. Its the Small Businesses around here that everybody is really concerned about. Its great point. Just because its las vegas doesnt mean theres a ton of Small Businesses and a lot of elviss depending on it. That does it for the exchange. Stick around for power lunch. A board member will join us to discuss that ill see you on the other siefd the break. I cant wiat to share at ts big 5g news. shouting through the glass at t has nationwide 5g . Yup and thats faster . Faster, yea but is it reliable . Ah huh and secure you should consider making a big deal about it bigger . I said bigger oh, bigbigger deal bigger than what im doing . Its not complicated. A 5g Network Needs a 5g device. Now everyone including existing customers can get a free Samsung Galaxy note20 after tradein. Welcome to power lunch. Glad you could join us on a lovely fall thursday tale of two markets to kick off the Fourth Quarter of the year the dow is down nearly 3 this year after a very good third quarter. The nasdaq is up 25 well tell you what to buy heading in now to the end of the year one top analyst says wall street is getting it wrong on amazon hell be hear to explain why he slapped a street high 4500 price target on that stock later, the spac explosion heats up its going public. Well speak to a board member and early investor in this direct to con sierm health care company. Power lunch starts right now