Transcripts For CNBC Fast 20240704

Market site. Our guest trader for the hour, lori cave cena welcome. We start off with that muted reaction to the markets Inflation Report this mornings Inflation Report. The market rising as much as 455 points early in the session, but losing steam throughout the day, closing up just 50 points. The s p and nasdaq following similar trajectories the benchmark up just a point. The reversals coming despite the fact that Consumer Prices rose less than expected in july, 3. 2 , versus 3. 3 estimate the drop in gas prices outweighed by a rise in the cost of food and shelter, so, todays action suggest a shift in the markets focus, guy . Its interesting. The s p closes flat, i get it, and lori has thoughts on this, and i mentioned it here, but what i took away, the move in the bond market was, again, extraordinary, in a word yields open on the lows. Spent the rest of the day rallying to basically the highs. I dont think thats good. Bill ackman ringing the bell in terms of his bond call, that top ticked it for about a week but if tenyear yields start to go through 4. 25 , i think thats problematic for the market so, i didnt answer your question, but the monday market spoke volumes today, mel lori . I agree that was one of the first things i checked when i was trying to put the puzzle together. I go back to the cpi report. It was a good print. I didnt learn anything here that we didnt already know. And i think the benefit of inflation moderating and the fed going on pause should be the boost the growth trade bond yields spiking are not going to permit that karen, what did you make of today . I didnt know what to make of today, to be honest. We saw the data. Slighter cooler, which was nice, but not wildly, right . So, i didnt understand that 400plus point reaction. And i kind of i get that some things bounced, right . The qs bounced, the qs have had a really rough go in the last couple of weeks so, that sort of made sense to me why the yields started to move so much the end of the day we had 394 and closed at 410, that was surprising to me. Im short the igv. That was up a little bit today, but its had a rough go, which, if youre short, thats good, but i am long things having a rough go i didnt know what to make of it you could make an argue sment its cooler, the fed is done, or recession, maybe even though we seem to think now there will not be a recession. So, i was confused by the whole day, to be honest. Weve had multiple different conversations in the last week about treasury yields, and why they could be moving higher for technical reasons in addition to treasury refunding schedule, fitch, foreign Central Banks, less buying, maybe inflation in japan, Japanese Central bank certainly buying less treasuries. Its a combination of also, you had a cpi number that, as weve all said, was pretty solid if you look at the 12month annualized year, at 3. 2 , but at some point, you saw below the surface, theres a lot of stuff in that inflation number that doesnt get any better any time soon owners equivalent rent, so is the best of the headline cpi behind us for now . Thats what it felt like and you bring it back to a market that has been kind of directionless lets not pick on the market, its been rock and rolling for a long time. Ten days of some choppiness, were talking about. But apple is still clinging to that 100day we talked about apple, yeah, it rallied, took it off the headline, but its still right there at a very key level. And volatility in the underlying market i dont know if we have the chart that just shows even of the last five days, we went we had 132 days in the calendar year of 22, which i was the best Trading Market ive ever seen in my career. This year, theres only by 32 of those days where you had these 1 moves that was 132 times last year we had a plus or a minus 1 move in the s p. It was the fourthlargest, you know, sample set weve seen of that occurrence since, i think, 1950 this year, only 32 and the last six trading days, weve had weve had seven of these moves, up or down 1 , and today, as weve all said, you had that cpi number, and from the peak of the kind of, this is a pretty good number, the jobless claims number weakening a little bit, s p fell 140 basis points so, theres more vol out there triple qs havent really reinspired themselves. The broadening of the market, we all know, is could be somewhat limited if especially were going to talk about ford and the industrials that dont look so good yeah, i agree that we didnt really learn anything from this cpi report, but what it underscored is that the consumer is still facing the pressures from the things they have to spend on every day groceries rose, eutilities were up, gasoline was higher, rent is higher those are all the things that, even if wages are getting better, they are still paying more, so, youre not feeling that relief as much. No. And we talked about that last night briefly. The fact that consumers seem to be fighting inflation with adding to credit, right . Adding to debt load. We talked about it last night, Credit Card Debt through a trillion dollars none of these things are particularly good with Interest Rates where they are which is why theres going to be a problem going down the line. And bond volatility is back. And in terms of inflation, yes cooler, good, except now, as we get into september, now things get more difficult and ill say it again, not suggesting im right, but i think theres going to be a reacceleration of inflation, and i think the fed knows that, which is why theyve been as hawkish as theyve been. Yeah, so, when people say, this is going to be it, the feds done, what do you think, lori i think thats the narrative for now. When i talk to my rate strategy team, theyre like, okay, theres been a coalesce snce, bt the inflation data may take a turn we are probably done with the fed debate, but i dont think we can count it out entirely. Yeah. And what does that do, karen, the fed turns hawkish again well, that would be hawkish, opposed to, we got 25 basis points left out, that would be okay. Hawkish would be bald for a lot of reasons obviously the market likes the were done narrative or close to done theres been a big rally on theyre getting near done. Even as they continue to raise it was like, well, were closer. So, i think that would be reversed somewhat. And then i dont know, i think i do like the broadening out of the market, though i think thats good, because tech has just been the only game in town. I like when theres other games in town, so that, i feel good about, but i am confused. I got to say were again at one of these places where the market, if you look at fed fund futures, and weve talked about this for the last year and a half, theyre not really accurate. They move around a lot, but right now, fed fund futures out one year have 80 basis points of rate cuts. And, you know, based upon the inflation data we had here, theres i think the fed is stuck and the fed has to tow the line so, i think a market that has rallied on peak rates, peak fed, peak dollar, peak inflation, at some point, runs out of, you know, this excitement. And you have to get back to the reality that rates stay higher for longer, and thats just not good for equities. All right, wells fargo sees little progress on inflation ahead. Mike schumacher is the firms head of macro strategy he joins us here at the nasdaq michael, welcome great to be here. I thought it was the perfect time to bring you into this conversation, because you think weve seen peak rates pretty much and may have seen it last week we saw the big surge today and im wondering if you sort of rethink that narrative not really. Its one day, big deal, frankly. And if you think about it, i believe the big move today was predicated by treasury supply. We had the announcement last week, it was high, everyone knows that tenyear auction yesterday, pretty big, went okay. 30year auction, big again, different go so well but the thing about treasury supply, its very predictable. The next news out of the treasury is not until november 1st. Yes, there will be auctions, but the market can deal with that, so i wouldnt call today a oneoff, but today was a combination of a few things coming together. So, to me, its normal volatility yes, rate volatility is high, but todays not crazy in that context. When you say weve seen peak rates, weve seen peak rates, but they stay close to peak . Or weve seen peak rates and they start coming down we think longer term rates come down a fair bit and its really interesting, if you look at historical fed cycles, and i get it, this ones different, but still, it might be different in a more accelerated way. Typically, theres a pretty big rally in the bond market starts right around the time of that last hike people dont wait. And we think the tenyear treasury is going to 350 or lower by the end of the year, which seems like a big move today, but thats very attainable thats great for equities should be good for equities, but we have lots of equity gurus today. But as far as bonds go, we think thats a substantial move. So, 3. 5 in tenyear suggestsal resteepening of the yield kur ucurve, i would imagine. Ive read a lotten about it, the resteepening, when the risk assets do their worst. When you think about the slope of the curve, in materially days after the last fed hike, everything seems to come down together in yield, so, maybe the twoyear doesnt really quite keep pace with the tenyear, but its pretty close. So, id said for the next threeplus months, we dont really see a big reshaping of the curve. We think its going to be more of a almost a parallel shift for awhile curve shape, thats a topic three, four, five months out let me ask you, the front end of the curve, though, i mean how do you how does this fit in at five and change still . Seems to be pretty sticky. It is sticky. A lot of issuance coming. Yeah, ton of issuance, i agree with that, and treasurys really intent on even letting that tbill number go higher as far as the outstanding but the front end is basically hostage to jay powell right now. Its not ppi tomorrow, you can all sleep in, doesnt matter, but wait for powell at jackson hole in a couple weeks thats the message people will care about and that will drive the front end for quite some time. So, we think it will be sticky for awhile what do you think happens what weve seen is some very tough labor negotiations, big union wins i think theres the average driver at u. P. S. Will make 170,000 a year. You left too early, guy i paved the way you are considered a hero thank you, appreciate that. But that just shows you how this could still be an inflationary force you think the fed has to be, then, harder than we may even think given cpi, just because wages will be so sticky . Its a really good point, melissa. I suspect the fed looks at that factor and near shoring or onshoring or whatever, and says, these things all boost inflation. So, that run rate is going to be higher than it was back in 2018, or 2019, so, we have to be more vigilant and keep rates higher for longer than we did then. But the problem for jay powell is, when he makes that point, people dont believe him the bond market says, well, if youre done hiking, surely the next ease is going to be pretty soon, and you see a big bid for duration its a really tough message for him to get out how about the dollar in the mix on all this . If the fed is seemingly done, theyve at least done everything they can to signal i argue weve had an 11year bull market run. Were seeing the end get back to those, you know, those alltime lows, but not only higher against the dollar any call on the dollar in the middle of this youre talking about a backdrop where you are kind of feeling that yields are moving down, with some stability that at least leading to a bit of a bond market rally dollar seems to be fighting a lot of this stuff. Weve actually become more positive on the dollar, tim. When you think about the fed, yeah, the feds about done, but in the last month or so, the European Central bank sounding a lot like hawkish, bank of england much less hawkish, bank of japan still confused as they are when you put it all together, it seems to us, on balance, the overall mismatch between the fed and other Central Banks has come in, and on top of that, data in the u. S. Are pretty decent data overseas have been deteriorating. You saw the news on china, obviously. So, we think that bodes pretty well for the dollar despite 145, give or take, on dollar yen. Lori, lets say the call for 3. 5 , which seems to really stick out, is that definitely good for equities . Actually, whats bake into our model right now, because weve been looking in consensus forecasts, and its been around that 3. 5 mark at year end for awhile and that should give you a 21, 22 pe mark. So, i think it is positive i think its positive for the Growth Stocks that have been a little bit weaker and trying to find their footing i mean, my question for you, actually, is, if we get to that 3. 5 at the end of the year and the fed stays on pause, we are getting to that point where 2023 doesnt matter as much and we start thinking about 2024, and im curious what your take is so far. Yeah, thats been really interesting to see the markets pricing for the fed. Its been super volatile so, back in early may, three months ago, the market was priced for 175 basis points of cuts next year got down to 80 its been bouncing around low hundreds since then. A lot is going to be dekeictatey the path of the data thats what the fed cant control very well. So, i think whatever jay powell says matters a lot, but two, three, four, five months out, its going to be the data path if inflation behaves, if we get a few more prints that are benign, you could imagine maybe some cuts late next year, or middle of next year, but if it does sort of flatline, i think that makes it a much tougher call what does jay powell need to do at jackson hole i suspect what hell do is Say Something like this, melissa, weve done a lot of good work, inflation is down a bunch, which it is, you still have that impact yet to come through the pipeline, lags and policy we have to be the same old same old yes were not going to get a major reset, walking away from 2 target or i dont think so. No anything intriguing or interesting . Last year was amazing he gave an eightminute talk, left, and equity worse down 3 i cant imagine Something Like that happens again all right too bad. It was fun, right talk about volatility youd have it. That would be a crazy day michael, thank you. Thank you, melissa. Michael schumacher. Well, theres two ways i think about this were talking about an equity market thats run 30plus percent on the s p since that october i feel like this is such a great time for Asset Allocation and to be thinking differently than people have, after this kind of move in the equity market. I hear about a rally in the bond market and i hear of a lot of investors and i have investors that want to be locking in rates for longer. That move out the yield curve and some of that is something to be thinking about. I think equities, like 3. 5, more like 4. 5, but i dont think equities get a rally on this and i think if anything, this is going to be that case where bad news, which is good news for bonds in terms of lower yields is not going to be great for equities they brought us in a room, dont make peoples eyes glaze over we do that every night. I was going to say. Too late. Tim mentioned dollar dl yen,n quast year, it was 152. January, 125 the stealth rally in the dollar, the yen weakness, is absolutely something to watch and that will correlate with the bond market and will correlate with risk assets, so keep your eye on dollar yen thats going to tell the tale. Coming up, shoe us, handbags, and the luxury megamerger what you need to know about tapestry and ka pris teamup thats next. Plus, ba babooeyed. Should you add this one to your cart well debate that when fast money returns you got this. Lets go. Gobble gobble. Ive seen bigger legs on a turkey rude. Who are you . Im an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this Smart Fitness mirror. Im also mr. Leg day. 1989 anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq100 innovations. I go through a lot of pants. Before investing carefully read and consider Fund Investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco. Com. Icy hot. Ice works fast. Heat makes it last. Feel the power of contrast therapy. So you can rise from pain. Icy hot. Nice footwork. Man, youre lucky, so watching live sportsin. Never used to be this easy. Now you can stream all your games like its nothing. Yes thats what im talking about. [ cheers ] running up and down that field looks tough. Its a pitch. Get way more into what youre into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. It was very clear that capri repre represented a strategic fit for our portfolio. Its billed in this resilient category that we play in, a 200 billion category for accessories, footware, and app apparel, luxury, with complimentary brands, so thats important. Welcome back to fast money. That was tapestrys ceo speaking to squawk on the street about her companys takeover of capri, the Luxury Retail Company Behind brands like michael kors and jimmy choo shares turning in their best ever session following this announcement tapestry, the owner of coach and kate spade fell nearly 16 karen . Yes you are happy i was happy i was delighted. Absolutely delighted but surprised for a couple of reasons. I get the idea of putting these two companies together they are very similar. You can see some synergies, but the part that im really sort of surprised by is, clearly it wasnt working at kors, right . They had three different brands, kors, versace and jimmy choo they have tried for several years to really see, can we get any kind of luxury premium for this company, and the answer has been a resounding no no. Were giving you a mid single digit pe multiple. And so, interestingly, tapestry came along and bid all cash. Its surprising to me they didnt want to do any stock, or did kors not want stock . I dont know hmm so, the all stock, i mean, the all cash, rather, fair amount of debt its not insurmountable, but its a fair amount of debt for tapestry they think theyll be able to get some synergies and pay it off. They dont have theres no financing condition to the deal, so, they have to come up with the money, no matter how bad the financing markets are. I dont think theres any antitrust issue here. Retail is so giant its just i dont quite get how it it didnt work at kors, but tapestry can make it work im a tad skeptical. I dont know if i had heard that tapestry was people had a lot of long tapestry, short capri that was turned around today i understand why tapestry is down this is higher level of risk with all this debt theyre going to be four times debt to ebitda, thats not great. But its sort of hamstringing them not surprised its down. Im delighted with the entire thing. And you are i am gone, this morning, gone yeah. What i dont understand is why pay, you know, 8 1 2 times when why do they have to pay that, when the stock has a chance to prove wrong people for the reasons that you said its been struggling . I guess i dont get that go ahead. And i hear, yes, it gets tapestry more into the luxury, but as youre saying, theres still a lot of overlap and thats what im hearing is the benefit. 200 million of cost savings and synergies they achieve over the next three years thats not a reason to do a deal and it seems like the ability to generate Free Cash Flow and pay down this larger, you know, kind of debt, is that story that is what you get, but its almost that youre creating the narrative after youve kind of created what is the narrative here . It feels like this consumer, if they are trying to get the valuation, the lvmh another universe right now. Exactly the shopper is a completely different shopper who buys michael kors or jimmy choo handbag versus a Louis Vuitton i dont know can they ever achieve that so, that is not the end goal, then what is if if they can do they talk about direct to consumer being somewhere where they can be more they could make it be more efficient they talk about there could be think about it they are both in wholesalers in a bloomingdales, in, you know, maybe a nordstrom or all of those, maybe they get a little more power there, maybe they get a little more power being at Simon Property group malls, they can negotiate better maybe they can facilitate they can do fulfillment better a lot of different things. I dont know how the multiple changes, though. Right how they get but tapestrys multiple was six. Wouldnt that have been better to use stock, not cash . Yes, but why doesnt kors want stock thats what karen is saying i understand that they should still get it right also, the ceo, they tried to get a new ceo, he was sort of already retired, that didnt happen this is great for him. All right, fellow luxury name ralph lauren falling today, despite a top and bottom line beat before the bell options traders are betting theres more downside ahead. Mike khouw has the action. Mike yeah, this is not a name that trades a huge amount of options, but it did trade more than four times its average daily put volume today and one of the trades we saw was a purchase of 250 of the accept item per mike, thank you for more options action, tomorrow, 5 30 p. M. Eastern time. Theres a lot more fast money to come heres whats coming up next alibabas big quarter. The chinese tech giant seeing shares jump after its latest earnings report. So, is it time to bababye plus, its a bird, its a plane no, its an electric plane. Red hot Archer Aviation is out with results were diving into the numbers and its new deal with the airports w were with the companys ceo youre watching fast money, live from the Nasdaq Market site in times square. Were back right after this. Thinkorswim® by Td Ameritrade is more than a trading platform. Its an entire trading experience. With innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading. Personalized education to expand your perspective. And a dedicated trade desk of expertlevel support. That will push you to be even better. And just might change how you trade forever. Because once you experience thinkorswim® by Td Ameritrade theres no going back. swords clashing had enough . No. Arthritis. Here. Aspercreme arthritis. Full prescriptionstrength . Reduces inflammation . Thank the gods. Dont thank them too soon. Kick pain in the aspercreme. Hows the chicken . The prawns are delicious. Oh, i have a shellfish allergy. One prawn. Very good. 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A baba bump in todays session shares jumping 4 after the chinese ecommerce giant reported a beat on the top and bottom lines revenue growing 14 , the biggest annual percent increase in sales since the september 2021 quarter. The company highlighting plans to invest further into a. I. Development. That stock is up almost 13 this year tim . Well, theres Different Reasons to be excited here i mean, the a. I. Thing, we dont need that. We need we just need the core business to come back alive. The reorg seems to be helping some efficiencies. And the fact there is a reorg and the ability to spin off that, and there is a green light to be able to value these different pieces is why i own the stock. And why ive been adding to it and this is good multiplewise, these numbers were solid and china, as a ma macro headwi noise to me. Thats not why i would be trading this stock or trading out of it, and weve seen this stock trade that way i think you stay here. Lori, china stock so, you know, i feel im a u. S. Investor, right, but i do feel like we had a moment earlier this year, really kind of early two q with china hating the u. S. , loving europe, loving china, was very much invogue, and then we saw the dial swing very quickly and i feel like its a little bit too fast to say weve gotten too pessimistic on china ive gone through a whole reporting season where its just been one negative comment after another, but i feel like were in the process of pulling people out of that consensus china trade. So, im probably sideline. In the spring, something changed. This is a stock for three years was making lower highs, lower lows, consistently and it changed february, march, april this year, when it stopped making lower lows. And this move now suggests, i think, you have room, probably, up to 125, 130 now, its still probably a broken stock in the context of the whole alltime high, but theres a move coming here in alibaba, and weve seen moves like this before, mel. Does this tempt you, as a person who used to own alibaba yeah, it sort of does if you look at the valuation, it is, you know, its outstanding for a company this big, to trade this cheap and have so many parts that have more value even yet to be unlocked however, having lived through that sort of first, wow, things could go very, you know, awry they could take this company off the map, if they want to absolutely. And they could have, but they didnt and they put it back on. And they put it back on i mean so, that makes me afraid makes me afraid enough to say, you know what . Im just going to be out right now, it seems were a little less heated, china u. S. Relations, but would it be shocking at all to see it heat up again well, the trade limits, the announcements over the last couple days out of the Biden Administration came in a little bit more conservative than people might have expected what do you mean . In terms of the limits on investing in china and they could have been a lot more aggressive, and they could have been more bearish, and just quickly, em has also traded around with baba, the whole asset class. A week and a half ago, everyone was, em to the moon. I was right there. And i think its going higher. Baba is a microcosm. Some of the data coming out of china has been bad. Not good. Not good. Coming up, electricity in the air, or, at least they hope so one electric aircraft maker out with results and were talking with the ceo of the break. Whats ahead of abfor Archer Aviation, and when we can expect to plug in and fly ntvi wn asmoyt ne returns. Rain i l. 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[whip sound] take the first step to see if your Small Business qualifies. I remember being on aau trips, high school games. My mom would always say, you need to fuel the body and you need salt. I would always be the kid not cramping, ready to go. Fast forward 20 years and i go from eating salt out of my palm to drinking lmnt. Welcome back to fast money. Stocks jumping immediately after this mornings soft inflation data, but closing well off the highs of the day the three major eindices manage to stay in the green novo nordisk lowering supply of its weight loss and diabetes drugs, particularly the ones at the lowest doses so, the beginning doses for patients that stock finishing lower by nearly 3 . Were watching shares of Archer Aviation after the bell the stock surging after announcing investment from boeing the company reporting Quarterly Earnings our phil lebeau is bringing us an interview with the ceo, adam goldstein. Phil, take it away thank you, melissa. Adam, were not going to talk about the q2 results, not that operations arent important, but i think guidance in term or of what you guys are announcing with regard to the beginning flight testing, and this round of fundraising that including boeing, does this 215 million does that youve Just Announced that youve raised, does that get you through to the manufacturing on a mass scale for the mid night . Yeah, thanks, phil, appreciate the question. If we take a step back here, over the last 90 days, youve seen the faa administrator step down and come join archer as our chief Safety Officer you saw the d. O. D. Come out and award archer with the largest contract theyve ever given to an ev company. And then, just recently, today, we announced that boeing is going to be our latest Strategic Partner and making an investment so, hatit has been a great perid for us it really does put us in a position not only just to get to market, but also, to start really accelerating a lot of our commercial operations. So, now you want to accelerate getting to market, which is supposed to be in the 25, 26time range. You mentioned boeing they are now an investor in archer you guys were suing boeing with regard to wisk they are going to be working with you in terms of developing the Autonomous Technology you hope to hopefully put into the midnight, is that correct . Yeah, we are really excited to be partnered with the greatest Aviation Company in the world. The partnership is going to start with collaboration around autonomy boeing and whisk have probably the most experience in flight autonomy in the world, and the goal is to be able to leverage that technology in future variants of our vehicle. But it is also exciting that boeing is coming in as an investor in archer, as well. Lets talk about the midnight winning the special airworthiness certification from the faa. This essentially means that you can begin flight testing right now. Does it give you greater confidence in your flight plan to commercial service . Yeah, absolutely, phil. The faa issued archer a certificate to begin flying our midnight aircraft this is a major milestone for archer, but also the industry. You now have two companies that have this for our preproduction vehicle. So, we will begin flying pretty much daily this fall, which puts us on our path to get the certifications to allow us to start taking passengers, and start commercialization in 2025. And thats going to have pilots, at least initially, right . Are we going to see pilots in the controlling the midnight, at least for the foreseeable first several years of operation . Yeah, thats right. Actually, starting at the gunning of next year, youll start our flight test for credit, our piloted flight test, which well be doing on a daily basis with the faa and d. O. D thats when were going to take the vehicles to market as the technology advances, we do anticipate the industry eventually moving to a fully autonomous form of transportation melissa, go ahead i think you have a question . Yeah, i do, adam, you mentioned your closest direct competitor, jobi, a lot of viewers might look at your business and see what youre doing with batteries and think elon musk. Is that a conversation that youve had and do you think that he could potentially emerge as a competitor to you . Because hes got, you know, the supply chain, in theory, that could either help or compete with you well, the autos have actually played a significant role in the industry to date one of archers biggest partners is stalanis. Theyve been involved since the beginning. And youve seen toyota as a really big partner of jobi so, i think elon actually has helped our industry significantly, and thats by helping to improve where lit yim ion batteries are today, so, thats really been the big unlock thats helped us today. So, to the extent that they wanted to get involved, i think it would only help adam, thank you very much for joining us adam goldstein, the ceo of archer melissa, back to you a big day forarcher. Theyll now be able to begin flight tests for midnight. Phil, thank you, and thank you to adam goldstein. Its interesting that these established companies are going into this new area with investments, kind of reminds you of amazon and a rivian, for example. I think united yeah, united. When they and by the way, you know, spacks have been good and bad. Its a lot to cut the valuation when they were coming out. And then spacks just as a group have been torpedoed. So i say that actually in support of the stock here, because i think despite the spack dynamic, i think its its a fundamental change. Yeah, for boeing yo, an interesting area vertical takeoff and landing. Interesting stuff. 20mile trips, ten minutes between trips. This is jetsons stuff i mean its actually going to happen, the back half of next year, so, i cant speak about the stock, as tim mentioned, had an interesting run, but this isnt going away, and boeing making some in roads into this, i think its fascinating stuff, for sure coming up, ford and gm slamming the brakes today. What is causing the traffic jam in these stocks . The details on the trade next. And later, all eyes on the ipo pipeline should we expect a surge of new offerings this year . Our next guest sees things heating up stick around for fast money ahead the first time you connected your godaddy website and your store was also the first time you realized. Well, we can do anything. Cheesecake cookies . The chookie manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. we did it start today at godaddy. Com dont cha written by callaway ray, rerecorded by massivemusic camera shutter dont cha wish your phone was fun like this . Dont cha wish your phone was fun like this . Dont cha wish your phone was fun like this . Dont cha wish your phone looked more like this . dont cha wish your phone could flex like this . dont cha wish your phone could fit in here . Dont cha . get a free storage upgrade when you preorder at at t. Welcome back to fast money. Buzz kill on big auto. Ford and General Motors sliding again today. Both stocks have been in post earnings decline since reporting better than expected results last month even raising fullyear outlooks. So, why are investors pumping the brakes here . The deadline is approaching, its september 14th. A lot of mud slinging going on Union Leaders calling Company Leaders liars and things like that right in the headlines, i mean all out in the open. It is the u. P. S. Negotiations seemed far more tame and you had carol saying, we will get to a deal. Right yeah, so, thats weighing on this, for sure its a lot of leverage there, so cant help but think the likelihood of it has to be high, right . So, theres that theres the, you know, more sort of wrench in the gears of getting finally for gm, getting their production up to its got to be higher where it is now, 100,000 cars for the last six months of this year, i forget exactly its not anywhere near where it should be. So frustrating, though 1 of i. C. E. Earning is not close to where it should be. But if that dollar were to go away, you could bet that the multiple on it without it being there would be so much greater than the multiple given to it when it is there thats frustrating i am still long. The margin story here is really what youve been focused on they both have great margins on a relative basis they show that actually they and ford is all about the efficiency, and i believe them, in other words, they recognize how important this is to the company at a time when the cost attacked are so critical, so you know, ive been long and wrong, gm mostly, and some ford, and i stay there i can sleep with these balance sheets, no problem yeah. So, i tend to look at industries as opposed to stock, but the auto and Auto Components related areas have been looking pretty good on the earnings revision indicators, and they are in the early days of recovery still weak in other areas. But they kind of fit in nicely, to my idea of a catchup trade in the market, kind of looking at things with shorterterm issues that are problematic and this does have some fear. But its bigger than these companies, as well. Coming up, ready, set, ipo new listings are picking up in 2023, and one top strategist sees a bigger recovery on deck well get his two cents ahead. And Brian Sullivan is live at the tin building in new york city, gearing up for a special last call tonight. They let you out, brian. They let me out, and its a consumer they let me in here, too, the consumer focus. Weve got a great guest lineup were going to hit a lot of stuff about the economy, ininflation, travel, housing, tourism, weve got a cast of thousands. Weve got, by the way, beautiful fish and a beautiful chest these are nice 7 00 p. M. , stal tla cl,athe tin building m talkin about josh allen is this your plan to watch the game today . hero fan uh, yea. I have to watch my neighbors nfl sunday ticket. josh allen its not your best plan. But you know what is . Myplan from verizon. 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Now you can stream all your games like its nothing. Yes thats what im talking about. [ cheers ] running up and down that field looks tough. Its a pitch. Get way more into what youre into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. Welcome back to fast money. Early gains for some of this years biggest ipos are giving investors hope for a bigger recovery the renaissance ipo etf has surged 30 this year, but has been cut in half from its closing high made in february 2021 for more on the ipo markets next move, lets bring in seth ruben. Seth, great to have you with us. Why do you think theres going to be a pickup in the back half . Yeah, thank you, melissa, thanks for having me look, weve started to see some real signs of improvement in the new issue market and i think its driven by a couple things. One, weve had investors just return to some confidence and some conviction of what theyre buying and two, frankly, weve had a really high quality cohort of companies that have not only come to market with the right story, but have been priced right, have put together thesynd to see those deals per for were going to see more transactions every month, youll see deals and start to build momentum. That really opens up the market as we head into 2024 if Interest Rates stay higher for longer, seth, does that lessen investor appetites for new issuance theres no question i think Interest Rates are probably the biggest head wind to the ipo market right now. Not only because the investor has more opportunities in terms of where theyre going to put their money and what that risk rate of return is, but because it affects the core business of, you know, of most of the companies that are looking to come public. You know, you talked about the peak of the renaissance ipo market, and where that index peaked out, you look at the end of 2021, you had free money, right . And you had the ability for companies to spend for growth, and you had a real fear of missing out from investors so, all of those things lined up along with peak valuations you have none of those things now. The companies that are coming public are going to come public with a view that, were going to have to be able to perform and outperform the market in a higher Interest Rate environment. So, i guess my question would be, why now . You know, ive always understood in the past when volatility was coming down mashgtss are rocky, and Investor Confidence is starting to connell back and ceo confidence, thats when you see the deals come up, and the high quality in the pipeline has been there for awhile whats changing right now thats really going to open the flood gates . I dont think were in a market that opens up right now i think were going to start to see the beginnings of those openings and this is something thats going to take a cup of quarters to build i would compare it so, if you look at the last two major disruptions in the financial market, you can go back to the dot com bust in 2000 and 2001, and the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, and what youll see is, coming out the back of those, youve had a couple of quarters where youve had a handful of ipos that have opened up the market, which led the way to a much bigger much bigger cycle. So, i think were still in a rebuilding mode. I think weve got a couple of quarters where were going to see some successful ipos, but the buy side, theyre very smart, right people are choosing. Theyve got the ability to say, i want everything right now, right . I want high quality companies, i want growth, i want economics, i want profitability i will be very selective of what i buy. And if we can get those deals to work over time, that opens up the market, and i think as we get into 2024 and certainly into the back half of 24, weve goty well laid out market will there be certain sectors that lead the way in terms of new issues yeah, i think were going to get back to the traditional growth sectors right now, youve come across things that are protprobably a little less sexy bio tech weve got this unbelievable cohort of companies in bio tech that are driving change in the market bringing products faster than theyve ever brought before. Technology, where you can have this massive dirth, right . You havent seen a lot of Technology Ipos in 20, 24 months so, you have a huge backlog there. And i think in high growth consumer, right, where you have some brands and you have some companies that were really built for the new economy that investors are excited about. All right, seth, going to leave it there thank you for your time. Thank you seth ruben of steeple you think thats going to happen i do, actually. I do i think if rates are steady, thats good. Even if theyre higher, thats good i dont know, maybe Something Like a nasdaq would go good on that nasdaq made an acquisition on june 14th. They have visibility they have a recurring revenue stream i dont think the market is giving them their just due and nasdaq at 51, i think, is too cheap in this environment. I think theres two dynamicer here one is that you see the stabilization of the market, et cetera i think the credit markets stability is a key part of this, as well. The other side of the coin is, i realize seth talked about different cohorts, the sectors, but at 20 times forward, the markets not cheap now, maybe thats great for companies that want to come to market i think its, you know, in anything, its probably a bit of a headwind gifts back to the investors that are being more prudent about what theyre going to buy, because, you know, coming into this, they know things arent cheap. All right, up next, final trades icy hot. Ice works fast. Heat makes it last. Feel the power of contrast therapy. So you can rise from pain. Icy hot. With powerful, easytouse tools, power e trade makes complex trading easier. React to fastmoving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you wont miss an opportunity. E trade from morgan stanley. The first time you made a sale online with godaddy was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. We just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. Start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. Start for free at godaddy. Com final trade time, lets go around the horn. Tim seymour. Paypal. A lot of people have been laughing at them over the last couple years stabilization in the client base i think the margins look better. I think this is a longer term recovery paypal karen finer mann . Yes mine is disney i do think it could have been a sell the rumor, buy the news bad quarter. Maybe this is the bottom for disney i started buying today wow look at that close l lori i Like Health Care stocks i think the market could be in for bumpiness nearterm. I read a lot of transcripts last week and health care seems to be managing to Weather China pret well you know, mel, there are hundreds of thousands, if not millions of fast money viewers. Some deserve it more than others last night, one of them threw a nono in major league baseball, Michael Lorenzen thank you for watching. You have a trade . International Business Machines all right mad money with jim cramer starts right now. Mad money w starts right now my mission is simple to make you money. Im here to level the Playing Field for all investors. Theres always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. Mad money starts now hey, im cramer. Welcome to mad money. Welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. Im just trying to make a little money. My jobs not just to entertain but to educate and teach you so call me at 1800743cnbc or tweet me jimcramer the market did it again, darn it we roared at the opening dow rallying more than 450 points from the getgo because this mornings cons